Below are the two links to the first two parts of this series I'm doing. If you want more information, click on them.
This is the third, and final part of my trilogy, which is ranking every voting contest in the 2020 United States of America(USA) Presidential Election. I'm ranking them via significance, and impact on the election. There are 54 separate contests, and for the first two parts of this series, I covered 40 of them. In this myTake, I will cover the final 14 voting contests, which will most likely have the most significant impact on the election. Below is the methodology I'm using to rank how significant a voting contest is for the election.
-Electoral Vote Total: This is the most obvious, and straightforward way to determine how significant a voting contest is in the Presidential Election. It's a simple as this-the more Electoral Votes a state has, the more significant a state is from a numerical standpoint. This is basic math. However, due to other circumstances, we can't rely on Electoral Vote Totals alone.
-Vote Projections: There are two main ways we determine how we thinking a voting contest will vote: 1. Voting history, and 2. Polling. Since 2020 began, we have been chronically polling several states, and we look at the average of the polls to determine how a state will vote, and how much of an impact it will have on the presidential race. Also, we look at voting history. For instance, if polling shows a state is slightly favoring Biden, but we know the history of that state tends to be Republican, then we'll give the edge for Trump winning that state during this election. You won't see much data, or predictions on states that are overwhelmingly for Biden/Trump, because the end result is virtually expected in the first place.
-Campaigning Locations: Presidential Candidates tend to have a good idea of which states, and districts to campaign in, or not. Biden, and Trump have been campaigning in key states(and key areas in these days) because they know those will help determine the election.
It's time to finish this ranking. Remember, we're counting down from least significant to most significant. When I list the "prediction" for each state, I'm pulling that from polling averages, and percentages allocated from number-crunching websites, such as The Economics, Fivethirtyeight, etc.
These final 14 states are the most important voting contests of the 2020 Presidential Election.
14. New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 89 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-47.25%, Hillary Clinton-47.62%, Other-5.13%
New Hampshire is the least significant out of the most significant states. Why? First of all, it's only worth 4 Electoral Votes. Second of all, it has already become much more predictable than it has been in the last 20 years, due to disgruntled highly-educated Republicans either sitting out, or voting for Biden. Third of all, neither candidate has done near as much campaigning there as they have in the other 13 states in this part of the series. With that being said, it's still a Battleground State, and Election Night may very well come down to every single Battleground State. I'll predict Biden wins in 54-45 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 13
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-44%, Hillary Clinton-50 %, Other-6%
No other voting contest has been on the rollercoaster ride that Virginia has rode in the 21st Century. In 2000, it began as a solidly Republican State that George W. Bush easily won, then in 2008, Barack Hussein Obama shocked the world by winning Virginia as a Democrat, and in 2016, people were actually surprised that Hillary Clinton only won Virginia by 6 percentage points against Donald Trump. Now, it's still considered a "Battleground" state, but that's only because of its rocky, and unpredictable voting history in the 21st Century. The polling averages clearly have Biden winning this state, and the only reason it has made the top 14 cut is because of all the campaigning both candidates have done in the state, as well as unpredictable nature of the state in the last 20 years. The state is basically four voting contests meshed in one weird state: 1. West Virginia(the western, and Republican side of the state), 2. Washington, D.C./Maryland combo(the northern, and ultra-liberal side of the state), and 3. Modern Virginia(the central, and eastern parts of the state, which is a good mix of conservatives, and liberals). I'll predict Biden wins this state in 56-43 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 6
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 61 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-51%, Hillary Clinton-42 %, Other-7%
Iowa is a headscratcher in every way possible. It voted heavily Republican in 2000, and 2004, and then voted Democratic in 2008, and 2012, went back to a strong Republican state in 2016, and now, is basically a coin toss again in 2020. On top of this, it's predominately rural, and despite traditional conservative views, it also has some staunch liberal views, especially on foreign policy. Finally, the gender gap here is bigger than all other 53 voting contests. The women in this state are much more likely to be Democrats than the men. With this being said, it's a state that is getting a lot of campaigning from the Trump, and Biden camps. I'll predict Trump wins this state in 50-49 margins, so it should be an essential coin toss.
Electoral Votes: 10
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 96 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-45%, Hillary Clinton-46%, Other-9%
Interesting Fact: Out of all 50 states, Minnesota has voted for the Democratic Presidential Candidate for the most consecutive elections, with 11 consecutive elections. The odd thing is, it's rarely a comfortable Democratic State, since it only votes Democratic in 1 to 5 percent margins for nearly every election in the past 40 years. Therefore, it's streak is comparable to a sports team's winning streak that is barely winning all of their games. With that being said, just since 2020 began, the death of George Floyd motivated Democrats in the state to turn out in huge numbers, and it has seemingly become more liberal just since the Summer, as reflected in the polling. Even though this is also toted as a Battleground State, as well as a top campaign state, I'll predict Biden still wins this state in 54-43 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 38
Prediction: Donald Trump has a 61 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-52%, Hillary Clinton-43 %, Other-5%
Texas used to be the Republican equivalent of California. There was a time when Texas was a solidly Republican State, and neither candidate would consider campaigning there. While it does have the second-most Electoral Votes allocated for a voting contest, it was never considered important due to its predictability alone. Now, in 2020, it's cracked my top ten list for the most significant voting contests. The reasons being as of follows: 1. It's much, much more diverse than it was just four years ago, let alone eight to twelve years ago(and beyond). 2. The polling average has shown an essential coin toss in the state as of lately, and 3. With the first two factors in consideration, it still offers a whopping 38 Electoral Votes. Trump still has the edge here, but if he were to lose Texas, it would be the early nail in the coffin to him winning the election. Still, I'll predict Trump wins this state in 50-49 margins against Biden.
Electoral Votes: 6
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-46%, Hillary Clinton-48 %, Other-6%
Nevada is similar to Colorado. It was once a coin-toss state, but has progressively became more liberal, and predictable in its results. With that being said, in 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first Presidential Candidate since Gerald Ford in the 1976 Presidential Election to win Nevada, but lose the Presidential Election. It hasn't stopped the Biden, and Trump camps from campaigning in the state, and it hasn't stopped voter turnout in this state. Due to the increasingly diverse demographics in the state, I'll predict Biden wins this state in 52-46 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 11
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 70 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-48%, Hillary Clinton-45%, Other-7%
Wait....Arizona, the state that has voted for a Democratic Candidate once in the past four decades makes the top ten? It's a "red" state, right? Well, wrong. At the very least, it's a Battleground State, and I dare say it's now a Blue State, due to the major increase of Latino voters in the state. It will be a battle between the white voters versus the non-white voters. I'll predict Biden wins this state in 51-48 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 16
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 58 percent chance of winning this state.
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-50%, Hillary Clinton-45%, Other-5%
Who would have thought we would see a Southeastern State ranked this low on the list? To be fair, it did vote for Bill Clinton in the 1990s, but the 1990s aren't anything similar to the 2010s/2020, and Clinton was an unconventional southern Democrat. However, Georgia has now turned into a battle between the largest city, Atlanta, versus the rest of the state. The older white Republicans have ruffled feathers with the ethnically diverse, younger Democrats. For the first time in my series, I'm going against the experts' predictions. It's hard to go against voting history, and I'll predict that Trump wins this state in 51-48 margins against Biden.
Electoral Votes: 18
Prediction: Donald Trump has an 51 percent chance of winning this state(PICK 'EM!!!!)
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-52%, Hillary Clinton-44%, Other-4%
I'm a lifelong Ohioan, and I'm sad to say my home state is no longer the most important voting contest in a Presidential Election. Hell, I can't even say it's in the top five via most significant anymore. It's still a critical Battleground State though, and out of all 54 voting contests, I predict this voting contest to be the closest in the entire Presidential Election. I'm actually predicting there will be at least two recounts before it's all said, and done. The state may be boring as a whole, but there is a good mix of everything: Urban, rural, suburban, religious, non-religious, and all different political spectrums. If the major cities of Akron, Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati turn out in big numbers, Biden will win. If every other city, and/or county turns out big, Trump will win. It may come down to a few thousand votes. I'll predict, after two recounts, that Trump wins this state in 49.6-49.4 margins against Biden.
5. North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 64 percent chance of winning this state
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-50%, Hillary Clinton-46%, Other-4%
North Carolina, unlike it's cousin South Carolina, is much more liberal, and definitely a big Battleground State these days. I predict this state will also have a recount. It's basically the western part of the state, which is traditional southern upbringings, versus the newly liberal hub of the eastern side of the state, and the central part of the state being a mesh between the two. I'll go against the prediction model, and say Trump wins in 50-49 margins against Biden.
Electoral Votes: 29
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 68 percent chance of winning this state(PICK 'EM!!!!)
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-49%, Hillary Clinton-48%, Other-3%
Florida is similar to Ohio as it's not quite as important as it used to be...but who am I kidding, it's still one of the most important voting contests in the election. Florida seems to be the crazy, and "controversial" voting contest in nearly every Presidential Election. The northern part of Florida represents "the south", and the southern part of Florida represents "the north", as silly as that sounds. Florida is basically several states mixed in one, with some crazy drivers, and radical tourists. Even with all of this being said, I'll predict Trump wins this state in 51-48 margins, and go against the prediction model.
Electoral Votes: 10
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 94 percent chance of winning this state
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-47%, Hillary Clinton-46%, Other-7%
Wisconsin was one of three states that really surprised the public back in the 2016 Presidential Election. What was once a solidly Democratic State, has now transitioned to a key Battleground State. Going into 2020, the Biden, and Trump campaigns have done a heavy amount of campaigning in this state. This state is similar to Minnesota, where social unrest has changed the direction of this state, as well as the fact the Democratic Convention took place in this state. Despite how worried the Biden camp is worried about this state, I'll say he wins this state in 53-46 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 16
Prediction: Joe Biden has a 95 percent chance of winning this state
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-47.50%, Hillary Clinton-47.27%, Other-5.23%
Michigan was another shocker in the 2016 Presidential Election, and was supposed to be part of Hillary Clinton's "blue-wall". However, that blue wall may come back, as once again, social unrest, and a heavy turnout among African-American voters are projected. This still hasn't stopped Trump, and Biden from campaigning there as if their lives depended on it. Will Detroit, and Lansing overtake the rest of the state? We'll have to find out. I'll predict Biden wins this state in 52-47 margins against Trump.
Electoral Votes: 20
Prediction: Joe Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning this state
2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-48%, Hillary Clinton-47%, Other-6%
Pennsylvania isn't the most significant in one particular category. It's not the most diverse state, it's not the top campaigning state, it's not even close to offering the most Electoral Votes, and it's not predicted to be the closest voting contest. With that being said, it does encompass every one of those factors unlike any other voting contest. 20 Electoral Votes is still a lot of votes. It's still supposed to be relatively close. Biden, and Trump have still done quite a lot of campaigning there. It has a good mix of demographics, with older, and less educated Republican voters, to younger, and more diverse Democratic Voters. On top of this, it's Biden's home state growing up, which should have an effect on voter turnout. Look for it this state to be the "tipping point", meaning the state that will ultimately decide the election. Pennsylvania is the new Ohio. I'll predict Biden wins this state, after a recount, in 51-48 margins against Trump.
Conclusion: The most important state also has an 87 percent chance of voting for one of the major party candidates. This means....the 2020 Presidential Election looks predictable, and it's looking like an easy Joe Biden victory. Yes, that was said in the 2016 Presidential Election about Hillary Clinton, but Clinton was more unlikeable, had worse polls than Biden, and there were a much higher percentage of undecided voters. I'll predict via Popular vote, Joe Biden wins in 53-46 margins against Trump from a nationwide standpoint. Still, this doesn't mean Donald Trump can't win, and it may be closer than what people are predicting. The only way we'll know is by waiting...it's now a waiting game.
Below are two maps: The map solely for Part 3 of this series, and my final Electoral Map prediction. The darkest blue/red voting contests have an 85-99 percent chance for voting for Biden/Trump(respectively), the mediocre/regularly blue/red voting contests have a 70-84 percent chance of voting for Biden/Trump, the light blue/red voting contests have a 56-69 percent chance of voting for Biden/Trump, and the "fainted" blue/red voting contests have a 50.001-55 percent chance of voting for Biden/Trumo(these are basically the coin-toss contests).
According to Fivethirtyeight.com, here are some other fun possibilities to look at on Election Day. Keep in mind, none of these possibilities listed below is my opinion-this is the opinion of a statistician's website.
-Trump has a 3% chance of winning the Popular Vote; Biden has a 97% chance of winning the Popular Vote.
-On the contrary, Biden has a 7% chance of winning the Popular Vote, but losing the election; Trump has less than a 1% chance of this happening.
-There is about a 0.0001% chance that neither candidate reaches the 270 Electoral College Votes, and the election hinges on Congress deciding the election(This hasn't happened since the 1836 Presidential Election).
-There is a 25% chance that Trump will win at least one state in the 2020 Presidential Election that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 Presidential Election. If this happens, that state will most likely be Nevada, but even then, the chances are slim. The state this is the least likely to happen is Hawaii.
-On the contrary, there is a 98% chance that Biden will win at least one state in the 2020 Presidential Election that Trump won in the 2016 Presidential Election. The states this is likely to happen as are follows: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona. The state this is the most likely to happen is Michigan, and the state this is the least likely to happen is Wyoming.
-There is a 0.0000001%(yes, you read that correctly) chance of the 2020 Presidential Election Map staying exactly the same as it did in the 2016 Presidential Election. There has never been two Presidential Elections in the history of the USA with the exact same map.
-There is a 4% chance the 2020 Presidential Election will hinge on a recount. This means, the election will be overturned after a 54 contest recount, due to it being so close. This hasn't happened since the infamous 2000 Presidential Election.