Since Donald Trump has clinched the nomination on the Republican side, we're no longer focusing on the Republican Nomination. The 2016 Democratic Nomination is dwindling down! There are only eleven contests remaining(eight states), and while this isn't the atrocious dogfight of the 2008 Democratic Nomination, it has been a battle. First, let's look at the contests remaining.
Contests Remaining for the 2016 Democratic Nomination.
Kentucky-May 17th
Oregon-May 17th
United States Virgin Islands-June 4th
Puerto Rico-June 5th
California-June 7th
Montana-June 7th
New Jersey-June 7th
New Mexico-June 7th
North Dakota-June 7th
South Dakota-June 7th
Washington, District of Columbia-June 14th(This is also Donald Trump's 70th birthday, and just so happens to be my sister's 21st birthday).
Here are the current numbers for both Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders. Delegate number totals seem to vary by source, but Associate Press(AP) is the most reliable source, so that's what I went with.
Number of delegates: Hillary Clinton-2,240(1,716 pledged, 524 super), Bernie Sanders-1,473(1,433 pledged, 40 super).
Popular Vote: Hillary Clinton-12,647,567(55.97%), Bernie Sanders-9,569,931(42.35%). A difference of three million votes, or roughly 14 percent.
Number of Contests won: Hillary Clinton-26, Bernie Sanders-20.
Map(Below): The contests colored green are Bernie Sanders' wins, and the contests colored yellow are Hillary Clinton's wins.
Needless to say, this is lopsided, regardless of what the mainstream media wants us to believe. Don't get me wrong-Most people didn't expect Bernie Sanders to do even come this close to Hillary Clinton(After I saw Iowa's results, I actually expected it), but still-He's losing quite badly.
Now, let's dissect each contest, and create hypothetical scenarios for each candidate. As most of us know, every contest on the Democratic side allocates pledged delegates proportionally-Meaning if a candidate wins 55 percent of the state, that candidate will win 55 percent of the pledged delegates. Since there are no "Winner-Take-All" contests on the Democratic side, this makes it extremely difficult for Bernie Sanders to catch up.
May 17th
Kentucky-Closed Primary
Total Delegates-61(55 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: First of all, it's a Closed Primary, which means solely registered Democrats can vote. Out of the eleven Closed Primaries so far, Hillary Clinton has only lost three of them: Democrats Abroad(Which is a bizarre contest in the first place), Oklahoma, and Utah(Two states in which the demographics strongly favored Bernie Sanders). African-Americans still make up roughly ten percent of the Democratic electorate, so if Hillary can get a big enough turnout in the Louisville, and Lexington Metro Areas, it could tip her over the edge for a win.
How Bernie Sanders can win: Bernie Sanders does exceptionally well with lower class, and less educated White voters. Democrats in Kentucky fit that molt to a "T." Also, there is a huge coal presence in the state, and coal unions(and unions in general) strongly favor Bernie to Hillary. Kentucky's demographics are similar to West Virginia, and he just won that state on May 10th in a 15 percentage point margin.
What I think will happen: There hasn't been a poll for the Democratic Primary in Kentucky since June 21st, 2015. Based on demographics alone, I think Bernie Sanders will pull off a solid ten point(or slightly less) win here. If it wasn't a Closed Primary, and if it wasn't for the pocket of Black voters in the western, and central parts of the state, it would be a blowout victory. However, there aren't enough Blacks(or Latinos), or affluent Democratic voters to help Hillary here. I've been all over Kentucky(I live on the border of Kentucky in Ohio), I have family there, and I know Bernie, and Trump have a large presence in the state.
Oregon-Closed Primary
Total Delegates-73(61 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: It's a Closed Primary, which means Hillary can pray that a low number of independent voters didn't switch over, and register as a Democrat to vote. She can also hope women propel her, and turn out, as there seems to be a feminist presence in the pacific northwest(And it's no surprise how self-proclaimed feminists will vote).
How Bernie Sanders can win: Oregon's population is only about four percent Black, and Latino combined-Which means a huge White presence will help him. Also, Oregon is an activist state, and states which like "activist outsiders" usually go for Bernie Sanders(in huge margins too). Let's not forget Oregon's demographics are very similar to Washington state, which Bernie Sanders won in relative ease.
What I think will happen: On May 11th, a new Oregon poll had Hillary Clinton with a 15 percentage point lead over Bernie Sanders, but 19 percent of the voters were still undecided, and so far, it has been the only Oregon Democratic Primary poll for 2016. For all we know, that was an outlier.
Going by demographics, I think Bernie Sanders will win Oregon by a solid ten points(maybe a little less). Once again, it if wasn't for the fact it's a Closed Primary, it would probably be a blowout. While it does border Washington(A state Bernie Sanders on in a 75-25 blowout), that was a CAUCUS-And Bernie usually wins those in huge margins. The demographics still strongly favor Bernie Sanders here.
June 4th
United States Virgin Islands-Open Caucus.
Number of Total Delegates-12(7 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: The United States Virgin Islands are a United States of American territory, similar to American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas Islands-Which voted for Hillary Clinton in a landslide. Most people also don't realize that the Virgin Islands' are roughly 76 percent African-American, which will definitely help Hillary Clinton.
How Bernie Sanders can win: This contest is an OPEN CAUCUS-Which is ideal for Bernie Sanders. Also, the reason why he hasn't won the U.S. territories is because the island countries don't know who he is, but by the time June gets here, they should very well know him.
What I think will happen: The U.S. territories are going with the establishment, so this should be an easy win for Hillary Clinton. Even though it is an Open Caucus, American Samoa was one as well, which strongly went for Hillary Clinton. Combine that with the fact this contest is predominately Black, It will probably be a massive landslide.
June 5th
Puerto Rico-Open Primary
Total Delegates: 67(60 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: What should be no surprise at all, Latinos make up about 80 percent of the territory. This will no doubt give her a big advantage. However, as I mentioned with the Virgin Islands, the U.S. territories seem to always go with the establishment-And the better part for Clinton here, is the fact it's a Primary, and not a Caucus.
How Bernie Sanders can win: Puerto Rico is an Open Primary, which helps Bernie Sanders. Similar to what I said about the Virgin Islands, he still has time be be "known", and by the time June comes, Puerto Rico should know who he is. This is also an island important enough to actually travel, and campaign in-And Bernie Sanders has a lot of time to do so(He tends to do better if he actually enters an area, and campaigns).
What I think will happen: Hillary Clinton should win in a landslide. The Latino vote alone would give her an easy win-Not to mention she seems to have no issues with U.S. territories.
June 7th
California-Mixed Primary
Total Delegates: 546(475 pledged)
How Hillary Clinton can win: She can win by the minority "tsunami wave." Blacks, and Latinos make up about half of the Democratic electorate in California-With Latinos solely 40 percent(Meaning it's critical to win them in this state). There are also several affluent Democrats in the state-Especially in the Los Angeles Metro area, as well as many registered Democrats in general.
How Bernie Sanders can win: There is also a big desire for an "outside" candidate in this state, as seen by activists in the media, and many "hippie-style" Whites in the state. There is also many lower class, less-educated Whites in northern California(I did the research), so Bernie Sanders can benefit there. Also, it's a Mixed Primary-Which means Republicans must vote for the Republican, Democrats must vote for the Democrat, and independents can vote for anyone(Long story short: Independent voters CAN vote in this Primary).
What I think will happen: This is a difficult state to predict, mainly due to the fact it's the largest state in population,and it has a little bit of every type of demographic. As mathematician Nate Silver pointed out, it's basically 50 different micro-primaries put in one huge state. There have been seven polls since April First, and Hillary Clinton has led in every one of them-Her current polling average in the state is by 14 percent.
However, there hasn't been a poll in the state since April 30th-And things can change in two weeks, and there is still about three weeks until voting takes place here. I think Hillary Clinton will win due to the Black, and Latino vote-As they make up a huge portion of the voters, despite the fact independent voters can have their say in the state. I don't think it will be a blowout though-I think Hillary will win in the single digits(Although a single digit victory in a population as massive as this state is a big win).
Montana-Open Primary
Total delegates: 27(21 pledged)
How Hillary Clinton can win: She can be thankful it's a Primary, and not a Caucus(like many of the other "Great Plains" states). She can also hope Native Americans can help blockade the White population here(Although there is no current evidence Native Americans are going for her, but she did do well in the Native American counties in Arizona).
How Bernie Sanders can win: It's an OPEN Primary for starters. It's also a state where Blacks, and Latinos only make up about two percent of the population(As a matter of fact, it's the least Black state). It's also a state where Democrats are dominated by lower-class, blue collar people-Especially RURAL Whites(which he does very well with).
What I think will happen: It's a state which borders Minnesota, and Idaho-Two states Bernie Sanders has already dominated. Given the fact it's mostly White, lacks Latinos/Blacks, and has many working class Democrats, I say Bernie Sanders wins this in a blowout.
New Jersey-Mixed Primary.
Total delegates: 142(126 pledged)
How Hillary Clinton can win: The great news for her, New Jersey(according to political experts) has the wealthiest Democrats in the country-And a very high percentage of registered Democrats in general. Blacks, and Latinos also make up about 35 percent of the Democratic electorate, and New Jersey is similar to the state she is living in(and a state she has already dominated): New York.
How Bernie Sanders can win: The good news for him, is the fact independent voters can have their say. There are still many radical Whites in the state which may want an "outside" candidate. He can also pray for a low minority turnout in the state.
What I think will happen: While there has only been two polls since April First, both of them had Hillary Clinton with an easy win-Especially since the most recent poll had her with a 28 point lead. However, the demographics here look too good for Hillary Clinton anyway: Wealth, Latinos/Blacks, and a large pool of registered Democrats. Not to mention it borders the state she dominated(New York), which happens to be the state she's living in. This should be an easy win for Hillary Clinton.
New Mexico-Closed Primary
Total delegates: 43(34 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: Latinos alone will make up nearly half of the Democratic electorate(As a matter of fact, New Mexico is the state with the largest percentage of Latinos). Also, it's a Closed Primary.
How Bernie Sanders can win: There are still several disgruntled Whites, and this state is one which has probably "turned" on Obama in the past four years. He can also benefit from the lower class, less educated White Democrats in the state.
What I think will happen: New Mexico tends to be close, but I don't think it will be this time around. Hillary Clinton does well among Latino voters, and that right there should give her the win here. Also, it's a Closed Primary. I see an easy double digit victory for Hillary Clinton here.
North Dakota-Closed Caucus.
Total delegates: 23(18 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: At the very least, it's a CLOSED Caucus. And with the large Native American population, maybe she can hope they turn out, and give her a win?(Again, assuming she does well among this group).
How Bernie Sanders can win: Bernie Sanders has won every CAUCUS state(except for Nevada, and Iowa), regardless of whether or not they were Closed or not. This is the final Caucus state remaining, and he can capitalize on this. Also, this is another rural state with a tiny percentage of Blacks, and Latinos-As well as a state with many working-class Whites without a college, or high school degree.
What I think will happen: This won't be much of a contest: Bernie Sanders should dominate. Since it's a Caucus, AND a state where the demographics favor him, it will probably be some huge margin(like 80-20). This is a solid win for Bernie.
South Dakota-Closed Primary
Total delegates: 25(20 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: It's a Closed Primary, and similar to South Dakota, maybe the Native American population can benefit her?
How Bernie Sanders can win: Just like every other state in the "Great Plains" region, he can dominate here. Just like every other state in this region, there is a tiny percentage of Blacks, and Latinos. Just like every state in this region, the Democrats are working-class Whites.
What I think will happen: This is will the fourth(and last) Closed Primary Bernie Sanders will win. The demographics are too rich for Bernie Sanders in the "Great Plains", and South Dakota is no exception. Until these states become more diverse, or wealthier, he has this in the bag. I don't think it will be a massive blowout since it's a Closed Primary(and NOT a Caucus). But it should be an easy ten point win.
June 14th(Last Primary day of the entire calendar).
Washington, District of Columbia
Total delegates:46(20 pledged).
How Hillary Clinton can win: The nation's capital has a very high percentage of registered Democrats. About 75 percent of these Democrats will be African-American. It's also the home of the establishment: Currently reigned by the Obama administration. Plus, it's a Closed Primary.
How Bernie Sanders can win: He can pray some independents switch their party affiliation by the cut-off date, and hope for an insanely low turnout among African-American voters.
What I think will happen: Do I even need an explanation? This will probably be Hillary Clinton's biggest blowout victory of the entire nomination process(She might win at least 85 percent of the vote, passing the threshold to win every delegate of the contest). This contest was made for Hillary Clinton: It's a Closed Primary, it's predominately African-American, it's almost entirely composed of registered Democrats, the Obamas live there, and are popular in the area, and it is the establishment.
...Here is what I think...
I did the Math last week. Assuming zero of Hillary Clinton's superdelegates switch over to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton is almost certain to get the magic number of 2,383 delegates on June Seventh. However, let's say she lost every contest until the end, in 84 percent to 16 percent margins(and let's face it: That won't happen), she would have exactly 2,383 delegates by the time Washington D.C. gets done voting on June 14th. There is even a realistic scenario where she can clinch it in Puerto Rico on June Sixth, but that one is a bit more of a stretch. There are still roughly 200 uncommitted Superdelegates, and in theory, they could go to Hillary Clinton right now, and end the nomination as I'm writing this.
What does this mean?
Let's say Hillary Clinton becomes the Presumptive Nominee in June. Bernie Sanders supporters will argue she's technically not the official nominee. They will argue Bernie Sanders can still contest the Democratic National Convention on July 26th(And I think he will as well). While this is true, it's pointless. Why? Because Hillary Clinton will walk into the convention with a majority of pledged delegates, a majority of the popular vote, and(probably) a majority of contests won. His only argument is using unreliable General Election polls against Donald Trump, which have been proven to be false in past elections.
It's not impossible; It's extremely, highly improbable Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic Nomination. But who knows? This election is so bizarre, I guess anything can happen.
What Girls & Guys Said
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This piece was well-written, and I quite enjoyed it. I think most of your predictions are pretty accurate also.
I'm looking forward to seeing how this crazy election cycle plays out. ;-)
Thanks, I appreciate your adulation!
I'm enjoying how bizarre this election is myself.
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