A Ranking of Every Voting Contest in the 2020 United States of America Presidential Election (Part 2)

Below is a link to the first part of this series I'm doing. If you want more information, click on it. Part 1 is right here.

This is the second part of my trilogy, which is ranking every voting contest in the 2020 United States of America(USA) Presidential Election. I'm ranking them via significance, and impact on the election. There are 54 separate contests, and for the first part of this series, I covered 20 of them. In this myTake, I will cover the next 20 voting contests. Below is the methodology I'm using to rank how significant a voting contest is for the election.

-Electoral Vote Total: This is the most obvious, and straightforward way to determine how significant a voting contest is in the Presidential Election. It's a simple as this-the more Electoral Votes a state has, the more significant a state is from a numerical standpoint. This is basic math. However, due to other circumstances, we can't rely on Electoral Vote Totals alone.

-Vote Projections: There are two main ways we determine how we thinking a voting contest will vote: 1. Voting history, and 2. Polling. Since 2020 began, we have been chronically polling several states, and we look at the average of the polls to determine how a state will vote, and how much of an impact it will have on the presidential race. Also, we look at voting history. For instance, if polling shows a state is slightly favoring Biden, but we know the history of that state tends to be Republican, then we'll give the edge for Trump winning that state during this election. You won't see much data, or predictions on states that are overwhelmingly for Biden/Trump, because the end result is virtually expected in the first place.

-Campaigning Locations: Presidential Candidates tend to have a good idea of which states, and districts to campaign in, or not. Biden, and Trump have been campaigning in key states(and key areas in these days) because they know those will help determine the election.

Let's continue this ranking. Remember, we're counting down from least significant to most significant. When I list the "prediction", I'm going from polling averages, and percentages allocated from number-crunching websites.

34. The 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 74 percent chance of winning this district.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-48%, Hillary Clinton-46%, Other-7%

The second Congressional District in Nebraska is significantly different than the other two Congressional Districts in the state. It encompasses a small portion of the eastern side of the state, but this small portion includes the liberal hub of Omaha, and the most racially diverse part of Nebraska, and some disenfranchised lower-class suburban voters. For the first time in this series, I’m predicting a contest will flip from its results in the 2016 Presidential Election. The projection is that African-Americans are turning out in greater numbers for the 2020 Presidential Election so far, so I think this will firmly be in Biden’s favor. I’ll predict Biden wins this district in 52-46 margins against Donald Trump. (Note: For the entire state of Nebraska, I predict Trump wins in 58-40 margins against Joe Biden).

33. The 2nd Congressional District in Maine

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 56 percent chance of winning this district.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-51%, Hillary Clinton-41%, Other-8%

Out of all five Congressional Districts separately allocating their Electoral Votes in the 2020 Presidential Election, this is the most important district, due to how close it will be. This is the ultimate “swing-district”. The only reason it’s not higher on the list is because it is just a district, so it’s clearly not as significant as most states. This district encompasses 80 percent of the state of Maine, which covers the central, and northern parts of the state. It's also one of the most rural, white districts in the country. It should be a good battle, even if it's for one Electoral Vote. I'll predict Biden flips this district too, and wins in 50-49 margins.

32. Washington(the state)

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-38%, Hillary Clinton-54%, Other-8%

For anyone who isn’t aware, there are some distinct differences between Washington the state, and Washington the capital of the USA). They are in completely different locations of the USA, Washington State is much more populated, much less diverse, and much rainier than the capital. With that being said, there are also similarities, such as both are quite liberal, and both are named after the first president of the USA, George Washington. I ranked it this low because eastern Washington is rural, and Republican, and it’s still worth a good amount of Electoral Votes. Still, I expect Biden to wins this state in 61-37 margins.

31. Louisiana

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-58%, Hillary Clinton-38%, Other-4%

Louisiana actually has a growing population, and a diverse population in general. Louisiana isn't quite the southern-bumpkin-esque place people make it out to be. However, to say Louisiana is going to flip on this election would be a bit of a stretch. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but I still expect it to be a one-sided race. The rest of the Southeast has become more competitive, but Louisiana, along with a few other states, are stubborn in their political views. I predict Trump wins Louisiana in 59-40 margins against Biden.

30. New Jersey

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-41%, Hillary Clinton-55%, Other-4%

New Jersey isn't New York, and it's certainly not the Reality Show Series Jersey Shore. It's a little more conservative than New York, and is a little more unpredictable than most of the East Coast. However, it's still Electoral Vote-rich, and still has some unpredictable conservatism in the state. I'll still predict Biden wins this state in 60-39 margins against Trump.

29. Illinois

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-39%, Hillary Clinton-56%, Other-5%

Illinois has been a "blue" state for a long time, but ever since former senator Barack Hussein Obama was elected as the USA President in 2008, it's been a solid blue wall. There doesn't seem much evidence to changing this, given the two largest cities Chicago, and Springfield are diverse, and very liberal. However, there are a lot of rural areas that could change the way things go in this state. Still, given Biden's direct ties to Obama, it's highly unlikely this state will change. I'll predict Biden wins this state in 58-41 margins.

28. California

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 99 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-32%, Hillary Clinton-62%, Other-6%

I know what you’re thinking: Why is California ranked this low? It’s one of the most predictable states in the country, and overwhelmingly votes the same way in every election. Well, there are three main reasons. First of all, out of all 54 voting contests, this contest allocates the most Electoral Votes in the entire election, with a grand total of 55. This right here automatically makes it the most numerically significant voting contest. Second of all, despite how low Trump’s chances of winning this state is, he’s still doing a lot of campaigning there, given how rich the Electoral Votes are in this state. Third of all, if the Democratic Areas have a low turnout, and the northern portion of California has a high turnout, it could shake things up. With all of this in mind we should still expect Biden to easily win this state, but if Biden were to somehow lose this state, it would be the nail in the coffin for his election chances. I’ll predict Biden wins this state in 64-35 margins against Trump.

27. Kentucky

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 98 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-63%, Hillary Clinton-33%, Other-4%

As a lifelong Ohioan who lives close to Kentucky, Kentucky is like a second home to me, and I enjoy the state. I have a lot of family in Kentucky. Despite some of the similarities between the state, one major difference is how much less impactful Kentucky is on the election than Ohio is. Kentucky is very conservative, but there is a chance the northern part of the state can shake up the election. I wouldn't bank on it, but we could see a major surprise coming up, and one of these days, it will be a Battleground State. I'll predict Trump wins in 58-40 margins against Biden.

26. Tennessee

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-61%, Hillary Clinton-35%, Other-4%

Tennessee is a great state, with some great mountains, and I want to give a shoutout to the eastern portion of the state, which I absolutely love visiting. Back on topic, now-politically speaking, Tennessee is basically a cousin of Kentucky. It's definitely more diverse than Kentucky, and has a rapidly growing liberal population, which could make it a Battleground State one of these days. Still, I expect this to be a fairly easy Trump victory. I'll predict Trump wins in 56-42 margins against Biden.

25. New Mexico

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 98 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-40%, Hillary Clinton-48%, Other-12%

We talk about the least important states, and we also talk about the most important states, but we never talk about states that fall in the middle of the spectrum. New Mexico is profoundly mediocre in its impact of this presidential race, and I would argue as the ultimate "medium" state in the election. As a matter of fact, the Biden, and Trump campaigns are conflicted of what to do with this state. Should they campaign heavily? Should they rarely campaign in the state? Should they mix it up? Interestingly enough, New Mexico seems to be a solidly Democratic state these days, but even with that in mind, it still has the Biden camp a little worried. In 2016, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson ran as a Libertarian, so he was able to get a lot of third-party support, and most of that support will go to Biden. On another note, five Electoral Votes isn't that much. So...we really don't know what to make of New Mexico, except for how it will vote, or at least how rational people think it will vote. I'll predict Biden wins New Mexico in 56-43 margins against Trump.

24. Oregon

Prediction: Joe Biden has a 95 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-39%, Hillary Clinton-49%, Other-12%

Oregon isn't quite like its cousin Washington State, but it's also not too far off either. We have the environmentally liberal hubs of Portland, and Eugene, but we also have the rural areas of the state which give a "redneck" vibe, even in the "suburbs" of Portland. The state does seem to be gradually becoming more conservative, but I don't think it will shake up the race too much, despite the fact it lacks a racially diverse population.

23. Mississippi

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-58%, Hillary Clinton-41%, Other-1%

Mississippi is a complex case, once you research demographic trends. African-American Voters are the voting block which are the most likely to vote Democratic, and Mississippi is the state with the highest percentage of African-Americans in the country. For whatever reason, it's still a heavily Republican state, but a more diverse population moving in is making this state "less red" than it has been in the past. It should still be a fairly easy Trump victory, but look for things to tighten this election. I predict Trump wins in 55-43 margins against Biden.

22. Utah

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 96 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-46%, Hillary Clinton-27.46%, Other-27.54%

Utah hates Democrats so bad, they actually voted for Independent Candidate Evan McMullin in a higher percentage than they voted for Hillary Clinton(granted, McMullin's home state is Utah). Utah, however, still has its doubts about Trump, since Trump isn't a traditional Republican, and Biden already comes off as less "liberal" than Clinton. Trump should still win this state, but expect the margins to tighten this election. I predict Trump wins in 55-42 margins against Biden.

21. Kansas

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-56%, Hillary Clinton-36%, Other-8%

The song "Kansas" by Gorillaz is an enjoyable tune, and it may be more significant in determining new music you'll like than Kansas will be in the 2020 Presidential Election. Maybe. Unlike its "cousins" such as Nebraska, Idaho, etc., Kansas has a bit of a blue wave moving in as of lately. The white rural areas are still overwhelming though. I'll predict Trump wins in 54-43 margins against Biden.

20. Indiana

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 95 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-56%, Hillary Clinton-37%, Other-7%

I live close to Indiana, and I've been to Illinois as well. Despite how the three states of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois connect with each other, all three of them are completely different states. Indiana still has the strong, rural roots of Republicanism, and conservatism, as well as a "southern" vibe to it. On the other hand, northern Indiana, and western Indiana are becoming increasingly more liberal. It was a Battleground state in the 2000s, and it very well may be getting to that point again. Still, I'll predict Trump wins this state in 54-44 margins.

19. Missouri

Prediction: Donald Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-56%, Hillary Clinton-38%, Other-6%

Gone are the days when Missouri was one of the critical Battleground States. It seems after the 2008 Presidential Election, this state became less of a "battleground", and more of a "red-wave". The large prevalence of old-school Republicans, and a deep military background has shifted the demographics of this state. There is some focus on the African-American turnouts in Jefferson City, St. Louis, and Kansas City, but Trump should still comfortably win this state. I'll predict Trump wins this state in 56-43 margins.

Prediction: Donald Trump has an 85 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-51%, Hillary Clinton-37%, Other-12%

2020 is crazy, isn't it? Alaska has only voted Democratic one time in its history, and has historically been one of the most conservative states in the country. On top of this, it's only worth 3 Electoral Votes. However, there has been a shift as of lately. Many Alaskans are disgruntled voters who would rather throw their votes "away" to a Third-Party Candidate, and even though Trump is the Republican candidate, many Alaskans don't view him as a Republican. Make no mistake about it-There is a great chance Trump is taking this state, but this state could be a surprise Battleground State on Tuesday. I'll predict Trump wins this state in 53-45 margins.

17. Montana

Prediction: Donald Trump has an 85 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-56%, Hillary Clinton-36%, Other-8%

How can a state with only three Electoral Votes, which is one of the least diverse states, and has voted reliably red since the 1960s ranked this high? It beats me. For some reason, Trump is massively underperforming in polls in this state. It's still a solidly Republican state, but it's probably the least solidly Republican state at this point. I'll predict Trump wins in a 52-46 margins.

16. South Carolina

Prediction: Donald Trump has an 92 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-55%, Hillary Clinton-41%, Other-4%

South Carolina is one of the Southeastern states that is getting some more of a liberal influence. The northern part is becoming more of a liberal hub, while the southern part is the traditional south. On top of this, there is always a heavy African-American population to look out for in turnouts. I'll predict Trump wins in 53-46 margins.

Prediction: Joe Biden has an 97 percent chance of winning this state.

2016 Presidential Election Results: Donald Trump-43%, Hillary Clinton-48%, Other-9%

Colorado's transition since the 20th Century is similar to Missouri's transition since the 20th Century: It's no longer a Battleground State. However, unlike Missouri, it's turning into a rapidly liberal states, with it's growing Latino population, and growing "hipster" vibe. The turnouts from large cities such as Denver, and Boulder should be enough to keep a blue wall for Biden, but due to it's Battleground History, it's still hard not to keep this state on watch. There is a reason why both Trump, and Biden still campaign there. I'll predict Biden wins this state in 55-43 margins.

Below are two Electoral Maps: The first map is the map of how Part 2 of this series looks. The second map is Part 1, and Part 2 of my series combined, and how the Electoral Map looks. The darkest blue/red contests are the contests that have an 85-99.9 percent chance of voting for Biden/Trump(respectively), the regularly blue/red(mediocre) contests are the contests that have a 70-84 percent chance of voting for Biden/Trump, and the light blue/red contests are the contests that have a 55-69 percent chance of voting for Biden/Trump. The Brown states on both maps are the states that were covered in Part 1, and/or have yet to be covered in my series.

The Electoral College Map With Part 2 Results ONLY

The Electoral College Map With Part 1, and Part 2 Combined

A Ranking of Every Voting Contest in the 2020 United States of America Presidential Election (Part 2)
2 Opinion