Winter is Coming. For Real, Are You Ready?

[Floppy2112]

Yes, it's an overused GOT trope, I really couldn't find a better to put it. Winter is coming and I don't mean the weather. Bills are coming due, debts have to be paid. What do I mean? I am going to discuss 3 major things that are about to happen, none of them good.

References will be below.

The first thing, evictions. We have enjoyed a Federal moratorium mandate preventing land and property owners from evicting people for the last year and a half. Some couldn't pay, others wouldn't pay. Here's reality. There are 30 to 40 MILLION evictions on the docket. Yeah, sure some states have their own moratoriums that last a bit longer, but they will not last much longer. Rent, Mortgages, leases all come due and they are about to, for 30 to 40 million American families. Sure some are single person dwellings, many are multiple people dwellings. Many people have accrued so much debt, that there will be no way to pay it off when the knock comes to the door.

This is going to be a crisis, we're looking at roughly 10% of the population being made homeless in a very short period of time. So if you have continued to pay your debts, good for you. Those who haven't are going to be in a world of hurt.

This also indicates that bankruptcies are going to overwhelm the system, so it's going to take years to settle this out for many people. Watch out, it's going to get ugly.

Next, Unemployment AND a labor shortage. I do not remember a time where this was the case ever, in history. Somehow, there are 9 million unfulfilled jobs and yet unemployment remains high. The fact is that enhanced unemployment ends Sept. 6, 2021. Someone on unemployment is going to roughly get half of what they are getting now, if they continue to get anything at all. The program is ending soon. And there are 9.2 million people currently on unemployment. You get that, 9 million unfulfilled jobs, 9.2 million receiving unemployment. Whatever you may thing about that, the fact of the matter is this is an artificially created situation and it's about to end, in September. I don't know what's going to happen with that because I have no historical reference for it, but I know it's not good. The government cannot fix it this time. The bill is due, there will be no more money. The government is on pace to vastly outspend itself by 21% approximately, from last year. There is only so much money you can print, borrow or steal. The free money is coming to an end. And people are going to be hurting, badly.

Add to this the absurd pace of inflation and the fact that the Fed has continued to artificially keep interest rates near zero, and there is disaster looming. I don't see a pressure release valve and there is a finite amount of money the government can ram into the economy. It's going to get ugly.

Third thing. China. I don't know how many of you pay attention to what is going on in international affairs, but China is becoming an ever increasing threat. And not just because they manufacture the bulk of U.S. goods. The biggest problem of all is they are lining up to take Taiwan.

Taiwan is critical for many, many reasons, not the least of which China will cease control of the bulk of the world's microchip manufacturing. For those of you who don't know, China thinks Taiwan is there's and the rest of the world disagrees. China is currently lining up their military to strike Taiwan. It's not a matter of if, but when they make their move. That means war, period. It doesn't much matter what you think of American interventionism. This history goes back to WW2 and Chinese aggression on Taiwan means war. And China is moving and encroaching on Taiwan more and more everyday. The last 6 months, China has ramped up its military readiness and war game scenario as well as moving troops and military resources into strategic positions for attack readiness more so now than ever before. Not even during the cold war has China increased its pressure on Taiwan like it has lately. For many reasons, this means war. Whether or not you like it or agree with it, it will be war. And it will be a very ugly war. Iraq, with no disrespect to our fighting men and women, will look like a paintball fight. Japan is also getting ready and is upping it's military preparedness swearing to protect Taiwan at all costs. The U.S. and China have been escalating rhetoric and trading 'war game' activities in the Pacific and the South China Sea. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on China to move when the U.S.'s multiple crisis's are in full swing as mentioned above. And there is growing concern that the U.S. is not ready, not even close to ready to deal with China and Taiwan, we are at a disadvantage and it could cost us dearly. China is ready, the U.S. is not. Not my analysis, this is the analysis many military brass are increasingly sounding the alarm on. It's actually a problem this is not made up. Feel free to look at all this stuff yourself, don't take my word for it.

So what's this all mean? Well, it means we are in for a bad time. Obviously, for anybody who is paying attention, these are not the only crisis's going on. There's the border, crime, increasing chances of more lockdowns, etc. It's going to get ugly. I highlighted 3 things I think is going to have the biggest impact and maybe these crisis's will subvert and cure the other crisis's by default. But who knows? The facts are that all these things are going to happened at roughly the same time and it's going to get bad fast. Not in one day, not in a week, but from the start of August to December, it looks like its gonna be rough and if you can be, be ready. We ultimately don't know what's going to happen, but what we can glean with a certain degree of accuracy it's going to get bad. Things are going to go terribly wrong for a lot of people. It's time for the truth to collect the debt on the lies we've been telling ourselves for the past couple of years. . We won't much care about how messed up our dating life is, when we are struggling. And we will all feel it to some degree or another. Obviously, if you haven't been paying bills, you need to worry more.

We've been all consumed on things that don't matter and kept our eye off the ball and it's about to bounce. I can't use enough metaphors to stress how ugly this scene looks. Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride...

References (not a complete list):

Evictions

https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/The_Eviction_Crisis_080720.pdf

Unemployment

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/19/how-many-americans-unemployed/

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/12/how-many-people-are-unemployed-right-now/

China War Games

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/us-official-warns-china-against-catastrophic-move-on-taiwan

https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/spending/
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/new-budget-projections-show-record-deficits-and-debt

[Massageman]

First of all, thank you for such a well-researched piece. With all the censoring of the truth, it's amazing to see some honest evaluations of the current situation ( spell that M - E - S - S ).

We are ready. While our "stimulus" checks went right back into the US Treasury for our quarterly tax payments, we own our house and our cars, and we pay our CC off in full each month. We are both sole practitioners, my wife in counseling/social work, and me in massage. To whatever extent possible, we were able to control our future by living on 80% of our earnings, saving where we can (no Starbucks each day, no cable TV, modest vacations, etc), careful shopping, scratch cooking most meals, and doing a lot of our own home repairs, improvements, etc.

Our natural gas bill has gone up 47%, while our gasoline has risen 59%, and I've just about given up trying to track weekly hikes in food costs. I work that like a restaurant manager- I have a target of $1.00 per main course serving, 33¢ per side serving, plus 25¢ per meal "for the cupboard" (seasonings, condiments). As long as I hit each serving target, we'll meet our food budget. The "soup and sandwich days" and "pasta Wednesdays", help us to save for an occasional small steak as a treat.

We were on "welfare" when I had extended unemployment in the 1980-1982 range. We got a box of government powdered milk, and a brick of government velveeta-like cheese glop every couple of weeks, plus 3 months of UI, with a 2 month extension. That was it- no cash card to buy filet: no 2 years of UI at twice my salary.

But we survived. I wonder what will happen to people who think they are OWED happiness rather than the "pursuit of happiness"?

Thanks again for the insightful take.

[Floppy2112]

Thank you! Yes, I would say the reported inflation numbers are vastly underestimated at best, or deliberately made up at worst. The people in the government care only about narrative. Millions of people about to get the notification that they are out, starting tomorrow has not even been addressed.
Perhaps that's better. Because government intervention has done nothing but hurt, break and destroy these past 2 years. It's time they let people fix their own messes.

[Massageman]

The 9 words you never want to hear - "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help." R. Reagan

[Daniela1982]

ha ha, so true. Just wait until they raise taxes to pay for all this stuff.

[888theGreat]

It is going to be the worse time in US history. The greatest depression ever. Suicides will be record breaking. Murders will be record breaking. Robberies and crime all time highs. Starvation will be common place. 20% of US population will die. Far worse than China virus 19. Only a few businesses will survive. More rounds of ammunition used than all the previous wars combined. It will take 40 to 50 years to regroup from it, if we even do ever recover.

[Floppy2112]

You know, when I wrote this, part of me thought the government was going to swoop in and extend the moratorium, but they didn't and couldn't. I hear a lot of numbers being thrown around as to how many are coming or going to happen. However, the lowest number I have heard of all the numbers was 3.4 million. The high end is still 40 million. Any number between 3.4 million and 40 million is still a huge amount. Add to that, the 1.2 million illegal immigrants that have crossed the border and yeah, it's a crisis. And very few media outlets are even talking about it. Only conservative outlets have mentioned it. It's like 2008 all over again. "Nothing to see here folks, move along." Oh, by the way, the market is collapsing. I think 2008 is going to look like just a cloudy in comparison, when everything piles on to the eviction crisis. The mainstream media will catch on when they can pin it on trump, putin, climate change and\ or racism. The lack of accountability these days is just astounding.

[Daniela1982]

Can you imagine all the people that are buying overpriced houses in this housing boom, find out that, like in 2008, they are way upside down in their loan?

[DeltaCharlieEcho]

They did end up extending the moratorium to Oct 4. That said, well I’m grabbing a couple hundred dollars worth of.556 over the next couple checks, let’s put it that way.

[DeltaCharlieEcho]

@Daniela1982 honestly I can’t wait. I’ve been warning people about this for almost 2 years now and rentals for next to a decade. I haven’t been saving for it, but I’ve been developing and preparing for it otherwise. When the collapse happens, I’m still going to be standing on a solid ground of skills.

[Floppy2112]

@DeltaCharlieEcho They did it illegally. It's not going to stand up to scrutiny. Of course, I wrote that 2 days after the previous moratorium ended and a day before it was extended. They said the couldn't do it because of SCOTUS, than they just did it anyway.

[Anonymous]

Yeah I started survival prepping last year. Slowly stocking up on supplies, learning about stocking up on water and food and a whole system about that. I'm not panic buying by no means, just a little at a time. And also buying emergency supplies as well, including weapons and if shit hits the fan, planning an escape route and buying isolated land for super cheap to move away from the city. Thankfully my debt is nearly paid off and I bought out my house completely. I thought people who did this were really crazy but the situation is just getting worse. Now that we're very politically divided its just a matter of time before something happens unfortunately. I just have a lingering bad feeling and I try not to watch the news too much and pay too much attention.. my husband is the one who does.. I just do my part to be prepared.. I hope not and I hope things don't go that route and I just end up with a bunch of stuff but we all know how the pandemic caught us all off guard. I never want that to happen again.

[Floppy2112]

It's not stupid to have some emergency supplies. The shortages we have been experiencing this year and the only indication is that some are going to get worse. There is a shortage of truckers who deliver food and fuel. The fact that we cannot protect our infrastructure from cyber attacks and that NOTHING has been done about them is a little scary. We are at the whims and good graces of foreign ransomware attackers is not good. The fact that the intelligence agencies are more concerned about domestic conservative mouth pieces rather than actual foreign threats tells you where their priorities lie.
Yeah, having some rainy day food and water and gas is a good idea. Also it's a good idea to keep a certain amount of cash on hand. If our banking infrastructure gets hit, we are going to be in a world of hurt. Hence, forget the 'stigma' of prepping. It's better to be prepared than not.

[Opinion Owner]

I agree, there's so many different issues happening and yet we're not being told or it's just being covered up. We all know government doesn't have our best interest only theirs. Oh yes, I have different sources for money. As the saying goes, It's never good to put all your eggs in one basket, and I don't trust the banking systems either. We have more cash outside of our bank accounts in other areas than just sitting there as it keeps decreasing in value anyway. So again, just preparing. I have a feeling people are going to start panic buying again or have slowly started. Some man put like 6 cases of water in his cart at the store the other day. It just makes me uneasy.

[Daniela1982]

The Supreme Court has said it would not support further eviction bans. As far as worker shortages, it is because, with them making more on unemployment then working no on wants to work despite the fact that 50 % of the stores I see have signs saying "now hiring". About every fast food place has one of these signs. Some have even closed temporarily until they can hire some workers as they do not have enough to operate.

[888theGreat]

They are offering $10 to $15 an hour. I don't know how many hours.

[Daniela1982]

@888theGreat Someone said the prices have gone up for things like pizzas as they are having to pay $20 an hour in order to get employees.

[888theGreat]

Quarter pounder is $8.39 here

[Floppy2112]

Come Sept 6, without something changing, those people choosing not to work are going to be begging for the jobs they are now refusing. It should be a shock to no one that free money = inflation. Money is based purely on confidence. There has to be an exchange for goods and services for money or money has no value, inherently. If you look at what Venezuela did to their currency, it wouldn't surprise me, in 10 years that a can of Coke costs $2000. It happened in Italy, it happened in Zimbabwe, it can happen here. I think the problem is, that we have had it good here for so long, people have this impression that "it" can't happen here. It can happen anywhere and it can most certainly happen here too. I am just living one day at a time.

[Daniela1982]

It definitely can happen here. I'm guessing it will too the way the government is throwing devalued money around. I think soon Monopoly money will be worth more.

[Floppy2112]

@daniela1982T "It definitely can happen here." The wisest words yet spoken on this site. I really think that too many people do have this belief that "it" can't happen here. By "it" I mean bad things like what happened to Venezuela, or Zimbabwe or Cuba, or any country that was at one time prosperous and now is a hell hole.
I was cured of that notion on 9/11/01. It's our lack of imagination or a belief that there is some unshakable foundation here that will forever provide a stop-gap for our decline. That's pure fantasy. If it could happen to Rome, it can happen here. As a matter of fact, the only thing that is 100% certain is that empires and great societies will all fall as all of them have fallen. It would be nice if the American experiment could last at least another couple hundred years on top, but I think we are in decline. I don't see any stop gap measures, I don't see any politician left or right fighting for our actual rights. What I see is encroaching authoritarianism, being brought in by the left and a complete unwillingness on the right to confront any of it.
If anything the crises' of the next few months going well in to 2022, MAY be a wake up call, but I am not holding out much hope. There are some really stupid people in high places that don't have the will nor the intelligence to deal with the issues. I wonder how many people are getting their notices today?
I wouldn't expect much news coverage on it, if it doesn't make the current government look good.

[Floppy2112]

@888theGreat In 3 months, they are going to be offering $8 bucks, when the government teet dries up and people panic.

[Floppy2112]

Well, it's here! This should be an I told you so moment, but most everybody seemed to agree.
The issue isn't that it is happening, the issue it that appears to be deliberate. The powerful want to burn it all down and they are. In Massachusetts, they are sending in the National Guard to staff hospitals. What is that? It is nationalization. This is deliberate my friends, they have no interest in fixing it because they want to burn it to the ground and rebuild it. They want the populous so demoralized, that we will accept anything so long is there is a promise of prosperity. Don't believe them. Don't quit. Keep fighting. It's all we got.

[DWornock]

For certain, after accounting for inflation, the cost of renting is going to increase again and this time by a much greater percentage. Rents increased about 50 years ago when laws prevented single-only rental apartments. That forced single renters to subsidize families with children and other undesirables since the cost to landlords is greater when renting to undesirables such as families with children. Prior to that, the undesirables could rent property but to justify the added expense the property owners charged more. No one wants to believe children are undesirables and they are not provided their families pay the additional cost.

This time the costs of the government forcing landlords to, in effect, provide property rent-free, is being factored into the price of rental property. Every time, without a single exception, when the government gets involved in rental property, whether it is unreasonable building codes for the few handicapped, rent price controls, forcing landlords to rent to undesirables, or preventing property owners from collecting rent, the cost of renting property increases and this last one forcing property owners to provide free rent is huge.

As for China. 20 years ago the rulers of China were asked, "What can you do about the USA?" China's reply, "Nothing YET." China's economy has been growing at a considerably greater rate than the economy of the USA and you understand compounding, you will understand that "YET" will soon be occurring.

[Anonymous]

biden has destroyed the economy and single handedly caused massive inflation. the housing bubble will burst and then we will be in a recession. He made a political decision to spend trillions keeping people out of work when they were needed by businesses now we will all pay for that foolish old mans political machinations

[DeltaCharlieEcho]

I’ve been buying tools and developing skills for years. Not only am I ready, I’m about to become an absolute top tier male when it all goes down. I’ve been trying to convince my friends to do what I’m doing and to pull their investments in stocks and crypto, but only one has listened. We are about to be absolute kings.

[Floppy2112]

All that is important. The other thing is to make sure your debt is managed at least, if not eliminated. It's not always possible but being at close to it as possible will help you stand pat. Also, now is not the time to make big moves, unless you have tons of capitol. By big moves is, don't buy houses right now, they are overpriced and there are soon to be a lot of vacancies sure to drive the price down. The economy is going to be very volatile the next 6 months.
But yes, your stable socio-economic status, is going to start looking very appealing to those who have had the rug jerked out from under them, which is a lot. But, do you want those women?

[RealMarek]

Yes. The decline of America is accelerating and we’re past the tipping point. The supply chain is a mess too, so prepare for shortages. Have some extra food on hand.

[DeltaCharlieEcho]

There’s a way to fix it that women aren’t going to want to hear but give the power back to men that need to have the power and stop oppressing men and artificially boosting up women. Women are not leaders.

[lorenzomichael]

Yeah I'm in CA which means I've been waiting for winter for 3yrs.

[Floppy2112]

You've been in perpetual winter for at least 3 years. People are leaving in droves from California and New York. I cannot blame them. Do as the rest, if you live in SF. Shoplift less than $1000 and you will not get penalized. That should take the bite out of food prices going up. Load the cart and take it to your car. That's what everybody else is doing.

[lorenzomichael]

In more down south in Chino hills in San Bernardino county.

[DeltaCharlieEcho]

Your states Monopoly money is a HUGE contributor to the coming fall. You have no room to involve yourself in this conversation.

[lorenzomichael]

Your an idiot for saying that nonsense.

[DeltaCharlieEcho]

My what?

[Ellie-V]

Well someone has been watching ks…

[Floppy2112]

What is ks?