The man is slipping in his own shit in Ukraine, and even losing support from India and China. So along with this fake "referendum" he's threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Do you think he really will do it this time? Should his threats really be taken seriously? And if he does, drop one, what do you think the response will be from the rest of the world?
First of all, per your Update, thanks so much for your kind compliment. It is very flattering to find that someone would be interested in my views specifically.
As to the question itself, to start the answer is somewhat cliche. Which is to say that accident and miscalculation can never be ruled out completely and therefore never say never. That said, overall, it is highly unlikely that President Putin would employ nuclear weapons.
To be sure, the limited use of nuclear weapons is part of Russian military doctrine. However, paradoxically, Russia's advantage in Ukraine at the moment is that the latter is in the vital interests of none of the other great powers. For the United States, Britain France, China and India, for example, all existed as major powers with Ukraine under Russian rule.
The opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the USA, the UK and France has been mostly as an assertion of international law and primarily because while their direct national interests have not been engaged, those of the states of eastern Europe - now newly joined to NATO - are involved. Were the Western powers to show no interest in Ukraine, it would call into question the value of NATO's security guarantees to the eastern European states and likely shatter the alliance, which is in the interests of the USA, France, UK as well as Germany, Italy and the other states of Western Europe.
In the case of China and India, both have their own irredentist claims against nearby territories - against Taiwan and Kashmir, respectively - and therefore, initially at least, both were somewhat supportive of Russia. However, as the Russo-Ukraine War has dragged on, both China and India have scaled back and placed limits on their support of Russia.
Thus, a paradox, on the one hand, Ukraine not being in the vital interests of the freat powers gives Russia a relatively wide latitude - short of nuclear war - to deal with Ukraine. However, were Russia to employ nuclear weapons, even on a limited tactical scale, it would immediately engage the vital interests of the other nuclear powers and leave Russia in a position of diplomatic isolation.
In effect, Russia would likely - though even this is not assured - secure Ukraine and in the process, lose the rest of the world. Again, while miscalculation and error can never be ruled out in human affairs, it is extremely unlikely that Russia would want to risk uniting the whole world against it.
This further because, Western media notwithstanding, it is a gross overstatement to say that Ukraine is winning the war. To be sure, Russia had hoped for a quick victory on the cheap. Consequently, Mr. Putin failed to fully mobilize Russian resources and thus prolonged the conflict. Thus the war has dragged on.
Note that, historically, Russia's military advantages have not been rooted in the quality of its forces nor their strategic and tactical dexterity. Rather, it has been in what has been called, "the Russian steamroller."
This summed up by a German general - I believe it was Franz Halder - as described during the battle of Stalingrad: The German army attacking the Soviet Union is like an elephant attacking a host of ants. It will kill thousands, perhaps millions, but ultimately the Russian numbers will overwhelm him and he will be eaten to the bone. Where Russia has sought deft quick victories - see also the Winter War with Finland (1939 - 1940) and more recently Afghanistan, Russia has tended not to fare very well.
The bottom line, over the long run, Russia can afford to drag out the war with Ukraine. She can suffer even defeat after defeat, and in the end still win the war, by exhausting Ukraine - which has far more limited resources and manpower to bring to bear in any prolonged fight with Russia. Thus the employment of nuclear weapons would be unnecessary and indeed, by uniting the world against Russia would undermine its best chance of victory.
Put is all together - and there are other points here that I have not gone into for reasons of space - and the odds are, again short of error or miscalculation, that Russia will not employ nuclear weapons. Indeed, by drawing out the fight, Russia is better to positioned to ultimately win it than not.
Putin’s entire legacy is now tied to his success or failure of the Ukraine invasion. He’s also a dictator and he demonstrated he has increasingly lost his marbles as he has gotten older.
So I do not take his threat lightly. But he knows there were extremely dire consequences of Russia does this.
The US is trying to avoid getting in a direct shooting war with Russia. Once we do these are ingredients for WW3. But Putin used nukes the escalation of all this could be horrifying.
The best case scenario is that Russia annexes some parts of the Ukraine to make Putin feel like he won something. Then maybe a cease fire will happen and withdrawal of Russian troops. It all depends how greedy and deranged Putin is willing to be. He already initiated a complete full scale invasion with zero justification. His excuse was that “oh there are Nazis in the Ukraine”. While that is technically true (there are fringe nazi groups in the Ukraine) it also true that president Zellensky himself is a Jew and Ukraine is NOT a third reich being run a hitler. Not even remotely close to it.
This is all about power, resources and restarting the old Soviet Union. Most of it is due to Putin’s ego which is sick and horrifying.
Fun fact, that latitude has prevailing westerlies. What this means is that if Putin drops a nuke really anywhere in eastern Europe his country would be sitting in the smoke of his radioactive campfire.
That is if things didn't spiral out of control. If things DID spiral out of control we are all borked. Putin would rather have all of Russia normal than all of Russia + little Ukraine and not have to have street lamps anymore because it's all glowing in the dark. Radioactive Russia is probably not in his vision of the former glory of the Soviet Union.
The only way he uses nukes is as part of a suicide plot, because he knows if he does he is a dead man and nothing good will come of it for Russia or for him. But the scary part is that he may well be close to that point because he has backed himself into a corner that he cannot get out of. There is no path out of the hole he has dug for himself that can save face in any way.
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No, I don't think he will. But people commit suicide every day. Maybe he will be the first head of a nuclear armed country to do it by using a nuke. If he does the entire world will be reduced to ashes so let's hope he doesn't.
He is sick and maybe terminally so. So that adds additional risk.
The most dangerous threat to America right now are the Democrats. Under Trump the world was at unprecedented peace. In January 2021 the Democrats took over the entire US federal government and every evil dictator in the world from Russia, to China to Iran to North Korea suddenly started threatening (or actually starting) war. It's no coincidence. They know that Biden is braindead and weak and the rest of the Democrats are also weak and actually willing to help them destroy America. The scary part is that they see this as a window of opportunity to do terrible things to the world while the weak America hating Democrats are still in charge before Trump and the Republicans get back in office and kick their asses back to hell. That is very very scary. Anything could happen right now because America is essentially weak and without any leadership.
I think rather then "fail" he might be that ,... driven. I hope not , I like to think that having nuclear weapons should be their own reward. In other words everyone who's a nuclear power now, except Russia, and they may have and I missed it. Says " we only have them for defensive use", like having your own "don't tread on me symbol". whatever happens , when this idiocy is over, we need to disarm the world of nuclear weapons. If they are truly "defensive" then no one's going to enact a first strike, so why have them, what? so we can spend billions protecting them from capture by terrorists. If this hasn't demonstrated once and for all the dangers of "leaving a hand grenade where kindergarteners can play with them" then Im glad my times on this earths coming to an end, it's my belief sooner or later someone's going to feel the need to make an example of another country, and nukes away. The real downside of glowing in the dark for as much as 5 years depending on weather patterns is , IN MY OPINION, when the first flies , they all fly,, if you have them your going to use them never mind that most nuclear powers are controlled by people already mad at the world, why else have the bomb, country A launches and not only does target B get irradiated into the stone age, but collaterally damaged countries C, Dand E have now lost food crops, meat and perhaps citizens solely because the wind was blowing there way and the had committed the grievous sin of bordering a nuclear target, oh look C, DandE just launched at country A. and on and on. I live in the only country to have demonstrated in a war the horrifying power of such weapons. I will not make apologies for decisions made 80 years ago I can only assume they based their decisions based on the best available intelligence of the day. Learn from them.
Thank you
Usually I don't answer political questions, but this one is interesting considering the Russian president's personality.
Mr Putin tends to keep his ground in the field of threats. On the other hand, he may be some kind of poker player, and relying on previously really executed threats, may induce people into believing he will actually use nuclear weapons in certain conditions. Let's face it: no one knows for sure.
Although Russia would be a direct collateral victim, no one can neither be sure of a person's real mental health. Power makes most people mental and dangerous... "Never trust a politician..." (Star Wars)...
At this point in time, I am beginning to doubt if their nukes are not some rusty, pointy missiles that would probably no longer fly. But who knows?
I mean, there is a slim chance he'll use them. A cornered rat will bite the cat.
If we think about global politics, if he indeed uses them, it's the end of Russia. Either they get nuked too, or they become North Korea 2 - shunned by almost everyone, making them a pariah. So, this will be taken into consideration by other politicians and/or generals who aspire to "replace" him in the future.
The answer is a percentage, which right now is more than 0%, and that alone is frightening. Having that said, conditions have to be met.
First, Russia claims that Ukraine doesn't exist and ukrainian people are russian, nuking what you consider is yours sounds like a terrible idea. For america nuking Hiroshima was relatively painless because you are not affecting your population in any shape or form. Russia has purposefully avoided the use of mass destruction weaponry in some parts of Kyiv in order to protect historical monuments and architecture.
Now most people might not know this, but back in the Syrian civil war American generals were suggesting the idea of using nuclear weapons against the Syrian regime, which back then were rejected. It pretty much shows how eager both sides of the spectrum are to the idea of using nuclear weapons, the menace is there.
u no... and the reason is very simple
activating a nuclear weapon and to make it go off... requires a LOT of different processes to be carried on first
it's not exactly like he just has this big red button and the moment he pushes it the world ends, no... there are protocols he has to first consult, then start, then carry on and go through... and even after that, the bombs have to be readied and settled and all that
if Putin actually wants to go on with something like this, it will be the very end of him... and also many others around him so... the moment he tries to use a nuclear bomb, many of those in his very inner circles will want to take him down so all of them do not end up killed
Don' t be stupid.
The West is slipping in it's own shit by maintaining this proxy war it created with Russia. Putin knows the West isn't going to outlast him, as he has what the West doesn't -money and resources.
Where the cost of living, rising food prices and rising energy bills are causing Western countries worse and worse problems; these aren't issues in Russia. Which not only produces something like 40% of the worlds energy and food, but has survived a decade of state sponsored theft aka "western sanctions".
Regarding "nuclear weapons" - it's a deterrent and nothing more.
Whether he wants to or not, I can’t see the Russian military actually doing it. No one is going to risk nuclear annihilation to save someone’s ego from being bruised. Especially when that ego is attached to jumped up ex-KGB officer.
If Putin elects to try that route, I suspect he’d be taken into custody by the army. What they do to him is anyone’s guess, house arrest would, I think, be most likely. Either way he’s be finished.
yes, tactical. not likely since wipes out an area for quite some time and may have consequences to his land. but if he wants to make a buffer or take out a lot of troops, or make a statement... maybe.
What's his downside? whose gonna fire one back? more sanctions... doesn't care. As well, if one goes off, they will deny and blame it on you know who.
From what I understand, Putin cannot alone order the usage of nuclear weapons, so there are others that could stop him.
Also, I don’t get his perceived advantage, if he turns areas he wants to rule into a radioactive wasteland?
He's a wounded animal now. I think he's underestimated by the West and I think that makes him dangerous.
Yes. I think he'll use them. Zelinskyy saying he'll apply for immediate NATO membership in response to Putin saying annexed parts of Ukraine are now part of Russia is a problem. It instantly risks war on a global scale. Either way it's not Russia or Europe that'll lose, it's our grandchildren.
The long and the short of it is that the US and its allies are responsible for everything happening in the Ukraine.
It is just the latest in a long history of crimes against humanity.
Putin is the only guy who has ever stood up to this tyranny so it is little wonder that he is demonised by western media.
All you people playing this record are banging on about how Putin is a crazy dictator and Russian media is propaganda and yet somehow fail to percieve the propaganda you are exposed to yourself, these statements ARE propaganda and you are just repeating them like a parrot.
Perhaps if you were more capable than a colourful caged bird these things wouldn't be happening in the first place?
What you can be certain of is that they aren't going to stop if all you are doing is drinking cool aid.
There is some speculation that his own generals will assassinate him if he orders the use of nuclear weapons. That is how much he is dis-liked at this point. He is really a mis-calculating guy. It was a dumb move to try to take over Ukraine. If he were smart, he would admit his mistake and withdraw. But he isn't smart and he is too egotistical so I doubt he will withdraw from Ukraine.
He might, but not easily. This whole war is about Russia trying to become relevant. They're underdeveloped and this is the way they choose to move forward. He very clearly expected a quick victory and he didn't get one. So now he's got his back to the wall and animals make weird leaps when cornered. He knows it's total political suicide to do so, but he may not have any other way forward.
He's a limp d* that's throwing a tantrum. His generals and ministers see how weak he is as well as the soldiers who turn the launch keys. None of them are going to destroy the world for that a-hole.
I can't see. For years his power was built as the "strong man of Russia" and the view of Russia as a serious world military power and as a regional military power but Ukraine shows that Russia cannot even win in their own backyard. Russian military failure in Ukraine makes Putin look weak and in the game he's being playing for 20 years losing means death for him.
He would, but won't also. Russia has turned on its current government. Conscripts that are primarily made up of untrained civilians are going to the front lines and surrendering, i. e. defecting to escape Russia. So while possible, it's unlikely.
Probably not. Dropping nukes in Ukraine would not get him closer to winning the war so strategically it makes no sense. So far I have only seen Putin acting in a rational manner so I do not expect him to just go to work one day and launching nukes for fun.
Anything is possible. He went from being a master strategist to being a fruitcake insane paranoid freakazoid.
And despite what trumpturds think. The entire world should respond promptly if he does use nuclear weapons. We remove this freak from power by any means necessary.
Putin is wasting his time he knows he is losing war to forces of Ukraine they are going to win the war Putin started this war now it's Ukraines turn to end this war and take out Putin's nuclear war heads
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