Is what's happening in New Caledonia tarnishing France's international image and influence in the Indo-Pacific?

[Julie4]

[RavVid]

I don't think so. Australians take an interest in the pacific and I think feel more concerned there are riots that are going to destroy infrastructure and impoverish peoples lives as well as the loss of life. It seems that there is no access to the hospital (s?) which is never a good thing and basic food logistics are disrupted - again never a good thing.

I can see the sensitivities. Kanaks are the original people but are now only about 40% of the population. The riots seem to stem from a feeling of dispossession. It does not seem that unreasonable to give people who have lived in New Caledonia for 10 years a vote but Kanaks are obviously seeing that as a move to lock them out of power.

I have no idea how voting rights influences power dynamics in NC. There will non-Kanaks who were born in NC and non-Kanaks who have emigrated there (presumably from France). Maybe the Constitutional change is a dramatic balance of power change, or maybe it isn't. Dunno.

It could damage France's image if it can be seen as embedding ex pat French in power.

China is likely to take advantage as they have in the Soloman Islands I'd suggest. Original population versus immigrant population plays out fairly widely in the area.

Doubtless order will be restored but there would seem a lot more to do after that. From what I have seen a lot of Pacific Islanders are "All dressed up with no where to go" as I put it. They can be quite well educated but there isn't the possibility to use that education. It's quite sad.

In Vanuatu for instance I saw a lot of derelict coconut plantations that should have been possible to put into a profitable position. Instead tourism seems to be the only industry. I've been to Fiji also but not to New Caledonia so don't know if these later comments are pertinent.

I tend to think Western countries should encourage industries that are achievable with the skill sets generally available.

[RavVid]

Peter Zehans take. Wasn't aware of the nickel mine there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLn_UjAWJn0

[RebelinSteel]

Nope not really, everyone accepts they are in a difficult position.
also if France pulled out, China would be in faster than rat up a drain pipe.

[Julie4]

Yeah for sure lol

[RebelinSteel]

They could offer it up to Australia, they are relatively neutral and fairly close

[RavVid]

We got rid of our colony/protectorate and Fiji is a frequent destination for our peace keeper forces.

I can't see much appetite for taking over New Caledonia. It could be a strategic move given China's move on the Solomans recently. So maybe we should.

[Julie4]

If France loses New Caledonia, it won't be able to live independently for long. But under these conditions, it would be better for her to accept the influence of a democratic country than a country like China.

[RavVid]

Assuming New Caledonia separates - and we can be quite sure Chinese agent are active - it will be bad for Australia because Chinese base in the Solomans/New Caledonia will be able to interdict US Australia traffic.

I would like to see France to postpone the constitution change 'for further consultation'. A decade ago there wouldn't have been a problem with sending peace keepers in. Now we have to see China as encouraging every disaffected group so it is easy to lose whilst winning

[RebelinSteel]

@RavVid
China are pretty much repeating what Japan did pre WW2.
They are nervous about AUKUS and what that means for the Pacific.
This means there is a bit of a race going on.

[RavVid]

Yes I agree. Just finished Destined For War. I am not so sure China isn't just trying to bluff the US out.

At least I think that on a positive day.

I like the attitude they have that it is OK for them to be agressive but it is war mongering if others rejuvenate their armed forces.

It is sort of JAUKUS now but while US, UK and Australia have been 5 eyes partners for a long time, Japan hasn't got the security in place. They do have good conventional subs.

Hopefully we fake them out.

[4ngelic]

l'influence non, l'image jsp

[Julie4]

Je me dis que ça peut jouer sur l'influence de la France si on perd du poids en Nouvelle-Calédonie. Surtout en fait par rapport à comment vont réagir les états de l'indo-pacifique sur la situation. Sa peut peut-être compromettre de nouveaux accords etc

[DarkLegacy]

What is this all about with new Caledonia all of a sudden. I have barely noticed it. Either way it belongs to France.

[handsomelad70]

Probably, and France has had lots of other image-sullying events in the past few years.

[KostasKouvalis]

What's happening in New Caledonia?

[handsomelad70]

Fill me in on the New Caledonia events.

[Julie4]

Until now, only those with New Caledonian citizenship according to specific criteria have been able to take part in provincial elections and referendums.

The government wanted to change this by allowing French citizens who had been living on the island for at least 10 years to vote.

But the Caledonian independentists are opposed to this.

So now there's extreme violence on the island.

[RyanEC]

Wasn’t there a referendum on independence not long ago.

[Julie4]

@RyanEC

In fact there have been 3 referendums

[KostasKouvalis]

That sounds kind of like how our Democrats are trying to make it legal for felons and illegals to vote.

I really don't think it makes a difference honestly. I doubt most people even know that this is happening.
And the countries who hate France have always hated France, and the people who were pro-France will still be pro-France. I doubt most people even know New Caledonia exists, let alone care about it.
Makes me wonder why more people want independence. But the same people who shit on France, continue to reap the benefits of French colonial and former colonial rule. And from what I heard from another French girl, the Kanaks never liked White people.
It will only influence the region if they lose their colony.
I think it just looks bad in the eyes of pro-French people, that France isn't able to keep a tight grip on its territories. French islands are supposed to be safe, luxurious and peaceful. There aren't supposed to be people rioting in the streets.

Lastly, Constitutions change often. And of course the Kanaks aren't gonna support this if they hate White people and naturally France doesn't wanna lose their territory. France always out its own interests first and didn't give a shit what others think.

[KostasKouvalis]

And to the pro-France people, this only makes the Kanaks look uncivilized, and now they will support their independence movement even less

[Julie4]

But the Kanaks dream of independence, even though they have never been a nation. In fact, they were divided into several tribes that warred against each other, and there were more than 30 different languages.

What's more, it's true that the proportion of Kanak - the original population - has decreased, but they still represent 40% of the Caledonian population, Europeans 23% and the rest is shared between different communities.

So it's not true to say that France has ethnically cleansed the Kanak. What's more, even if France leaves, the Kanak will still have to live with the other Oceanian communities on the island.

And there have been 3 referendums, all of which were lost. Although the last referendum was boycotted by the Kanak.

[KostasKouvalis]

Exactly they still haven't learned from history what happens when a people who have never known the concept of a nation, suddenly establish a nation. Also, what's gonna happened to all the French people living there?

Exactly, there are always gonna be some casualties. It's also funny how certain groups kill each other, but when White people kill them it's suddenly an atrocity.

Also, don't the majority of Kanaks, at least traditional Kanaks live on the Loyalty Islands?

Exactly, why would France have allowed those referendums before?

[handsomelad70]

Just what the world needs:Another flashpoint.

[KostasKouvalis]

fortune.com/.../

This is not good. Maybe they could give the Kanaks the Loyalty Islands and keep the rest

[RyanEC]

@julie4 Have any came close.

[Julie4]

I'm not sure I understand 😅

[RyanEC]

Oops 😬 I meant to reply to Brian’s post where you said there were three Referendums for independenc.

I was was wondering if any vote came close.

[Julie4]

Yes, the second one was close. But the 3rd was boycotted by the independentists.

[RyanEC]

Why did they do that?

I remember following the news about that but I don’t remember hearing about that.

[Julie4]

Because they felt that the conditions were not met for the proper conduct of the vote, COVID period etc..

But for me it's because they knew they weren't going to win.

[RyanEC]

Porto Rico is similar for America.

They aren’t a state and they are not independent they are in a middle ground more like an old colony we stole from Spain.

Some want independence and some want to be a state but there is never enough consensus.

[Julie4]

Yes, I can see that. However, I don't understand what the Kanak independentists hope to achieve by becoming independent.

Before the arrival of France, Caledonia was divided into several tribes that fought each other and even cannibalized each other.

There was no nation. No unity.

And now, by being French, they have the chance to be part of a great nation that has influenced world history.

[RyanEC]

I suppose they feel they now have a unified identity even though they didn’t before being colonized and administered.

Many post colonial nations are similar.

[RavVid]

I think the essence of the problem will be that they considered it to be their country/their province/their island and they are losing control with the referendum as there will be a bigger French vote.

It is similar in Fiji in that there was a big Indian population and they were the richest people because they were mostly running the commerce.

Something similar happened in Malaysia. There was simmering resentment that Malays were second class citizens in their own country as the Chinese dominated commerce.

I'd bet on simmering resentments on Kanaks being second class citizens in their own land is what is fueling it.

Independence is most likely a solution to ensure Kanaks remain in power. Probably not thought out more than that nor is it likely to work out well.