Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU

QuestionMan
Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU

On June 23rd the United Kingdom held a referendum on whether to Remain or Leave the EU.

The result of the referendum was 51.9% voting to Leave and 48.1% voting to Remain. #Brexit

Personally I think a vote of 60% should have been required to leave since this is too big of a decision to be decided by 3.8% of the population.


Before I go into the result, I'd like to go over the arguments for each side. I will try my best to remain impartial.

Remain

Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU

The Remain campaign is the one I personally supported.

Here are their arguments.

Trade and Economy

-44% of Britain’s exports go to other EU countries. Breaking out of the European single market and putting tariffs would only hurt the British economy.

-Having the same standards allows for easier trade between European countries.

-It is much easier for other countries like the US, China or Japan to make trade deals with all of Europe at once instead of tweaking a separate deal for the UK.

-Leaving would mean the UK would need to strike fresh terms with 53 states covered by EU deals

-A lot of companies are dependent on trade with the EU that are based in the UK could leave

-The Bank of England, The UK Treasury and most economists support remaining in the EU

-The cost of membership is only about 1% of the UK's GDP which is £8.5 billion a year and not the ridiculous figure of £18 billion a year (£350 million a week on the Leave campaign buses) falsely claimed by the Leave campaign. This ridiculous amount of money was promised to be given to the NHS but has after the referendum been disowned by Nigel Farage.

Sovereignty

-Leaving the EU would mean that the UK would still have to meet the standards of trade imposed on EU nations except this time the UK wouldn't have a say on the regulations being imposed

-Britain retains a veto in many important areas

Security

-The UK is NOT a part of the Schengen area so everyone regardless of their point of origin must go through customs

-Europol membership allows the UK to share intelligence and fight cross-border crime

-The European Arrest Warrant has returned over 1,000 criminals to face justice in the UK

Farming and Fishing

-UK food and farming exports to the EU are worth £11.4 billion a year, with 76,000 agriculture jobs linked to EU trade

-The EU gives £3 billion a year in subsidies and protects 64 UK goods – cheese and pork pies included

Immigration

-Free movement of labour may not end since Norway and Switzerland still must allow it to reap the benefits of the EU without being member states.

-Immigrants, especially those from the EU, pay more in taxes than they take out


Leave

Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU

Here are the major points brought forward by the Leave campaign.

Trade and Economy

-The UK is the world's 5th largest economy so there's no doubt that countries will want to trade with them.

-Less regulation in the workplace would create more jobs

-The UK could get more investment from countries outside the EU

-Trade with the EU would continue since the UK currently has a trade deficit

-The money spent on EU membership would have greater benefit if spent domestically specifically on the National Health Service (NHS).

-EU citizens that claim welfare benefits in the UK are a drain on the economy

-Experts like the Bank of England and the UK Treasury have been wrong before most notably in the 2008 recession

-Only the EU can raise tariffs on non-EU states which means the UK can't protect its business interests

Sovereignty

-Unelected bureaucrats in Europe impose laws on the UK

-The British government has repeatedly been defeated in cases brought to the European Court of Justice

Security

-The UK will continue to cooperate with Europe in terms of security

-Being in the EU makes it easier for terrorists to sneak into the UK

Farming and Fishing

-Britain pays more for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) than it gets back so leaving the EU would make more money available for UK farmers

-The CAP also wastes lots of money on bureaucracy

Immigration

-The UK although not a member of Schengen must allow for EU citizens to work in the UK without a work permit which decreases the amount of jobs available for UK citizens

-An Australian style points based system should be used


More detailed responses

In the 50 minute video below, the audience asks more detailed questions which I didn't cover above.

Two representatives, one from each side answers the questions posed by the audience.


After the vote, what happens next

With Brexit winning in the UK, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty can be triggered after a series of law changes in the UK, such as the repealing of the 1972 European Communities Act.

Alternatively, the UK can negotiate with each member state separately.

David Cameron the current Prime Minister will step down in October.


The UK will have 2 years to negotiate their divorce with the EU after triggering Article 50 and come to a trade agreement. If it doesn't manage in that time then unless all EU members agree, Britain will be kicked out of the EU but that is highly unlikely.

In the meantime, the UK remains a part of the EU until all the details of the exit have been sorted out. So all EU laws and regulations still apply.

Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU

GIB -Gibraltar ORK - Orkney Islands SHET- Shetland Islands

As you can see above, Scotland and Northern Ireland overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU. With Scotland voting 62% to remain and Northern Ireland voting 55.8% to remain. This goes to show that in a democracy, majority rules and everyone else must accept it.

Scotland has once again called for a referendum for their independence so that they can join the EU. Is this surprising? No. The Scottish National Party looks for any excuse it can find to try and achieve Scottish independence.

It is possible that another referendum may occur but it is not in Scotland's best interests to separate now when the market is already unstable.

Another interesting point about the results is that the majority of Leave voters were pensioners, while the majority of Remain voters are young adults.

Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU

The UK economy has currently taken a hit with the pound sterling at its lowest in 30 years.

This could actually be good for the UK since the exchange rate allows for more foreign investment.

I have no doubt that the UK will recover since it will be able to pursue more favourable trade deals across the world it will just take some time for the economy to recover.

How long it will take to recover is still unknown since the UK hasn't even left the EU yet and is already feeling the impact, it is still to be seen what will happen after the UK officially leaves the EU.

A lot of people are dissatisfied with the result of the EU referendum. On the one hand you have Remain voters who are sad that they've lost and are calling for another referendum with 2 million people already signing a petition. On the other hand there are some Leave voters that would've voted Remain had they known that the market would've reacted this way.

If the UK goes through with the Brexit this will encourage other countries to leave the EU as well, with people in Denmark, Netherlands and Italy calling for their own referendums.


To my fellow Gagers in the UK I wish your country the best. You made your voices heard and now things will begin to change.

Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed this myTake :)

Brexit: What it Means For the UK and the EU
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Most Helpful Girl

  • Anonymous
    This is a good insight, thanks. Especially about security of the borders you mentioned visitors need to go through British customs security no matter where their origin is from... Most Brits dont know it and they just voted to so-called prevent immigrants, which is just racist bullshit in my opinion.
    Is this still revelant?
    • I've personally been to the UK. The only difference between EU and non-EU visitors is the line you stand in for customs. People seem to think that the freedom of movement of labour automatically means that the UK is part of Schengen which it isn't.

    • @jacquesvol Yup I mentioned that under immigration.
      Norway and Switzerland who are not EU members still have to allow it.

    • Show All

Most Helpful Guy

  • RationalMale
    You gotta love how the "Remain" group is decrying the results and wants another vote, etc... but if they had once by.01%, they'd be out saying how the "Leave" crowd has to abide by the majority, democracy, etc...
    Is this still revelant?
    • You have to admit that only a slim majority voted to leave.
      I personally think that for something this big you need a 60% majority to leave otherwise you ignore practically half the population.

    • A slim majority is all it takes. If the tables were turned and Leave was saying that, they'd be getting laughed and mocked and told they were ignoring the will of the people.

    • Well this is a fundamental change to the UK so you need an overwhelming majority to change the status quo.
      If almost half the people want it to remain then you are ignoring their vote.

    • Show All

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What Girls & Guys Said

418
  • oddwaffle
    UK economy is going into a rough time.

    The 1st to start pulling out of UK will be the banks. The whole reason they stick around in UK is because UK was the gate to EU and the UK markets. Now they will still hang around but only for the UK market. Probably move to Amsterdam or something.

    The 2nd to start packing will be long term investors. Brexit means instability and this is bad for long term plans. You can't expect people to out their live savings in to something that might or might not turn out okay. People don't like the idea of risking their lives.

    3rd will be the Europeans. No point for them to stick around because there will be change in taxes and their legal status. They don't really like the idea of having to become British more than the Brits want to be in some other country (even though google search from UK shown a 100%+ increase in moving to Canada).

    4th will be the loss of the sterling. Import companies will experience a rough ride and even suffer losses leading to bankruptcy. This is because they have to pay more for their goods now. What would cost them 100pounds before will cost them 150p. Exports might experience a rise in volume of trade but that will not happen within the short run

    Those things will create a downturn for the UK in the short run (1-2 years). Some people will lose jobs in financial sectors and certain long term businesses. Goods will become more expensive and wage will fall. This means there will be a recession unless the government quickly solve its trade deficit and unemployment. Chances of the UK still at the 5th largest economy will be very slim.

    In the long run 3+ years then things are a lot less certain. Depending on how weaken the UK will be, other countries will perform trade deals that might not be good for the UK. This is because the UK will be negotiate at a weaken state, desperate for trade. They will also lack strong and experienced negotiators because it has been so long since they started doing their own talk.
  • G-Daz
    I could provide a much longer response but i'll just post this for now
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k

    The EU is an ongoing sinking ship, to be honest I wish the UK never joined it in the first place and set examples like the most successful countries in Europe (which are outside the EU) like switzerland.
  • Waffles731
    The U. K needs to do everything in its power to prevent balkanization. They NEED to try and keep northern Ireland and Scotland or the nation that has lasted for over a thousand years in one form or another is done
    • I doubt Northern Ireland will leave but Scotland could go either way

    • Curmudgeon

      Honestly? The Scot separatists were hoping for EU Subsidies. The regional silliness is a direct result of nation state sovereignty diminishing. I think the Scots will be forced to grow up now.

      See also Catalunya with respect to Spain, for another sample of such silliness.

    • Oram52

      Last Scottish referendum Nationalists lost by 10%. Leaving the EU is not going to make a big difference. Result will again be NO.

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  • ObscuredBeyond
    Britain will net benefit.

    If British laws protecting freedom of speech (albeit, inferior to the US First Amendment) can be run roughshod over by bureaucrats in league with the Soros neo-Nazis, and citizens can be arrested for simply complaining about the Syrian migration coming in unchecked - especially if it leads to someone's cousin being murdered by a Syrian - then Britons have no real freedom. And everything else invariably goes south when there's no freedom.

    By reversing this and letting Brits have their rights and freedoms back, the other things gradually take care of themselves. Non-Brits who wish to live there now have to indicate that they have a good reason for being there. As it should be anywhere. Even Japan knows that inviting Somali pirates in with a no-questions-asked policy is suicide. Why should Britain be forbidden from being as smart as Japan?
  • AdamThomas
    I find it funny how the remainers are freaking out about the result and keep on moving the goal posts. "It should have been 60% to leave rather 50+". "We only had 72% voter turnout, it should have been at least 80%" (never mind that this number is much larger than the turnout in other elections). "It's unfair how they're dragging us out of the EU against our favour". If it had been 51/49 in favour of remain they wouldn't have a problem, but now they lost all of a sudden they don't want to respect democracy.

    I think in the long run we'll go better out of the EU anyway, we put more into it than we took out. The EU will collapse eventually anyway, especially since many other countries are now talking about leaving too. I hope it does get destroyed.
    • Personally I accept the result, I just think for a decision this big you should've had at least 60% in favour of leaving otherwise you're dragging half the country with you.
      What's done is done though.

    • AdamThomas

      The same could be said if the remainers had won by a small amount, and especially if it had ended up 59/41 to leave. They'd be the ones dragging us in and would have no problem with it at all.

    • Good point.
      However, when it comes to leaving the EU you're out for good and you have to deal with all the consequences as a result.

      What made you vote leave? Was it immigration?
      Thing is people don't seem to realize that to be a part of the single market you MUST allow free movement of labour. Some Leave advocates have even accepted that.

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  • 2tall2handle
    I understand why the people in the UK wanted to leave the EU. They got tired of some talking heads in Brussels making their decisions for them. So they voted to get rid of them from their country. Just like I would vote to have the United States to leave the UN if they started the same thing even though we are a charter member of the UN.
    • Brussels never made decisions for them, the UK government always had the final say on whether to implement a law or not.

    • Well that seems to not be the entire story coming out of the UK, but since I do not live there, and am not privy to Parliment I will take your word for it. Just seems like the head of the EU in Brussels was making a lot of decisions for the member countries of the EU. Just my opinion.

    • The UK has a lot of power in the EU. A lot of the laws were amended to suit them and they also have the power to veto. Leaving means if they don't like a regulation than if they want to trade with the EU they'll have to follow it without being able to raise any objections just like Switzerland and Norway.

  • The UK will turn into to switzerland.

    The population would be slightly rich compared ot other countries. But the strength of the country would be reduced to effectively the same level as belgium, maybe less. Scotland is leaving so thats a major economy gone. Ireland will follow. EU won't give a toss about England.

    But the population would be better of slightly. UK as a country though is finished. Both metaphorically and literally.
    • smølf

      Maybe but it lasted 300 years anyway, and did build the greatest empire the world have ever seen, so the UK will be remembered for sure.

    • jacquesvol

      @smølf the UK will be remembered for sure.
      By historians, like the Hittites are remembered.

    • @jacquesvol Lol I didn't even know who they are had to look them up.

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  • WeeGeeTheSecond
    • The 0% thing is false.
      Switzerland still has to follow EU regulations and has no say in the matter.

  • RandomBritishGuy94
    Scotland did not vote "overwhelming" to stay. Not if you consider the leave vote slim. The majority to leave was 1.3 millions well the leave vote in Scotland was 1.1 million. It's the latest reason the SNP have taken to push for a second independence vote. Something they would push for anyway the only question was when they would push. If anything this has come to soon for them because they aren't sure they can win.

    As for the vote nothing has actually happened yet. The markets over reacted and are recovering. For most things it'll mean nothing in the short term (year or so). In the long term I think it'll mean we are more open to trade. The EU is too protectionist. It's why they have so few free trade agreements. I'm not sure we will keep the single market access but a reduced tariff isn't out of the question. Right now everyone is stating their starting point for talks. We'll meet somewhere in the middle.
  • Panay
    Excellent summary- if only everyone has understood the situation before they'd voted...

    My sister voted leave because 'the eu is going to crash and if we don't leave now there'll be no eu left' 😂
    • A lot of people are now saying they regret their decision and people who didn't vote wish they voted.
      Too many uninformed voters. I hated how the Leave campaign put the £350 million a week lie on their bus and said it would all go to the NHS. Farage afterwards said it wasn't going to the NHS so it was all a trick.

    • jacquesvol

      Indeed, it was a bunch of lies
      EU referendum Leave campaign rows back on key immigration and NHS pledges www.theguardian.com/.../leave-campaign-rows-back-key-pledges-immigration-nhs-spending
      https://oi67.tinypic.com/zmgz0i.jpg

      Within an hour after the result was published, Farage denied the compaign words about the NHS financing

    • @jacquesvol I'd understand if they just got the number wrong and said that the membership fee can be spent elsewhere but to specifically say "this money will fund the NHS when we leave" which was their biggest point IMHO and to just do a complete 180 and say "nope we never said that" is pure lunacy.

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  • JessicaWin
    The UK is now self-destructing. Even in England - about half the population voted to stay (myself among them) - that division can't be wiped under the carpet with a simple majority.
    • I agree I believe a vote of 60% should've been required to leave otherwise it's only a slim majority.

    • BlueCoyote

      While I personally also think the UK should have remained an EU member, I also need to point out to people like you: sorry, but that's democracy. Coming from Switzerland where we have direct democracy and thus 20-30 referendums per year on important national issues, I have to say that you can't always win. I know it sucks and I know how it feels when the country decides differently on an issue that was very important to you - it has happened to me numerous times. But in the end, a majority of the country is a majority. Demanding special rules such as a 60%-majority after the voting is rather undemocratic. It undermines the idea that other people should have the right to disagree with you and that their voice counts just as much as yours.

    • smølf

      You have to in a democracy, the decision was stupid for sure, but we have to respect a majority in a democracy.

    • Show All
  • smølf
    You right, and I am sad to see you go, however a democratic referendum have to be respected in a democracy.

    we will survive without the UK, and the UK now have freedom to make better trade agreements with the US and the commonwealth - it's not all bad, sure you loose some jobs but then gain jobs from new opportunities. I am sure we will give you a fair (however not generous*) agreement.

    *We can't afford to offer you a generous agreement, as a generous agreement would only inspire others to leave in hope of same.
  • rose004b
    The UK was not a part of the Euro-zone. I think you meant to say that it was a part of the European single market.
    • Thanks for pointing it out. Yes I meant the single market.
      I'll correct that.

  • 26ukdude
    I voted remain, there is a lot of anger towards the older generation tipping the balance in favour of leave, a decision most younger adults didn't want, yet will have to live with the longest.
    I suppose only time will tell how this all pans out.

    Another interesting point is that now although the public have voted to leave, it is in the hands of parliament and the majority of MP's wanted to remain, if we were to stay in the single market it wouldn't be the complete split from the EU that most leave voters had wanted. We would still have to accept free movement of people and pay a chunk into the EU, but with no say on how things were made inside it. The alternative would be to leave the single market which would mean an export tax on goods going to the EU and possibly a large loss of jobs and a big hit to the economy as foreign companies moved their business elsewhere.
    • parliament wouldn't dare go against this vote. The only ones calling for this are a slim minority that, I would argue, don't understand democracy.

      Turnout among young people was 30%. That's their problem if they didn't vote. Some people mine age voted to leave.

  • abundantlyrich
    Two more years to go. People are already freakinh out like no tomorrow has arrived.
    • Soteris

      To my knowledge they have not triggered article 50 which means there is actually no timer going down currently. Not to mention it is possible to extend the time. Basically people are warming up for the real panic that is to come.

    • @Soteris two years still far away

    • Soteris

      Jupp and I can't wait for the fallout.

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  • Oram52
    Great Take. Summerized the situation well.

    However UK would not accept any Freedom of Movement similar to imposed on Norway, that was the main sticking point. That is what tilted the result in favour of leave. As you mentioned majority who voted Leave were older generation, they're also the main block of voters voting UKIP.

    Scotland are planning on new referendum, however no one seems concerned yet. As last time referendum was lost by 10%, UK leaving EU couln't make a drastic difference in itself. Finnish are trying to get a referendum as well or many calling for it.

    Younger generation have been unhappy as you mentioned, and there was a lot of contention regarding that. Second referendum seems unlikely at this point. Personally result being so close, and many issues or concerns arising after the referendum, not to mention the generation gap. Another referendum might not be bad.

    All in all good MyTake.
    • Thanks

    • smølf

      Not just the Finnish, two parties here in Denmark are now arguing if Britain proves to be successful after the separation from the EU, then we should have a referendum as well.

      EU have to reform and quickly too, or it breaks into pieces.

    • Only 30% of under 25's voted. That was the problem. I'm willing to bet most people my age, the ones complaining anyway, are the ones who didn't show up on the day. If you want your voice heard you have to vote.

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  • Righttobeararms83
    There may be a chance that Westminster wants to cut Scotland loose and they definitely want rep of Ireland to take on N Ireland.
    The UK will be alright after all they were one of tge big three that ran and paid for the EU.
    On trade they will be able to arrange trade with other countries that better suits them, for instance with countries like Russia. The biggest problem the UK will face is an extreme right wing Thatcherite Tory party that believes in trickle down economics now gaining power not leaving the E. U.
    • jacquesvol

      Little problem: how much of the North Sea oil is left (Less than 50 %, I was told) and how mich of it should be Scottish?

    • @jacquesvol thats thing there could be more or less, figures can be skewed by the government. Scotland won't likely get that much as it was privatised by the British government years ago (my Dad had a few shares, eventually all shares were sold and goobled up by the rich as planned) For instance Ireland is an independent country yet all its oil and mineral rights are owned still by British landlords in England. There is a gas platform off west meath and the irish people get zero from it.

  • SnatchFinderGeneral
    Have you seen how that 48% behaved when the vote didn't go their way?

    Can you imagine how pissed off the 52% is gonna be when their majority vote is overturned. You'd better hope they don't behave like the spoilt retards who lost did.

    But let me give you something to think about. Overturn it, and you're gonna piss off a lot of people. And you're going to destroy the illusion of democracy.

    And when that happens, don;t be surprised when people in this country get a whole lot colder, a whole lot more unforgiving, and a whole lot less sympathetic to your plights. And don't be surprised when the rich give even less of a fuck about you.
    • Let me also give you a hint. This kind of 'moving the goal posts' and whining like tantrumming brats is provocation for civil war. If you think that is an exaggeration, then just you wait until the whining leftist youth push too far and overstep the mark.

    • I never said that the vote shouldn't count. I said originally the requirement should've been 60% to leave but since this is the way it was set up then the UK must leave the EU even though I disagree.

  • jacquesvol
    Farewell, UK.
    • bobbyxx

      Yes byte bye.

    • jacquesvol

      The United Kingdom’s credit rating was downgraded to double-A from triple-A by Standard & Poor’s on Monday in response to the country’s referendum to leave the European Union. The ratings agency also changed its outlook on the U. K. to “negative,” and warned of “a deterioration of the U. K.’s economic performance, including its large financial-services sector.” Later Monday, ratings agency Fitch also downgraded the country, to AA negative. Global markets have taken a significant hit since the referendum results were officially verified, and the British pound plummeted to a 31-year low Monday. On Friday, Moody’s cut Great Britain’s outlook to negative.
      www.thedailybeast.com/.../...ded-after-brexit.html This means the UK govt will pay higher interests to get loans on the market. And current UK bonds lose value.

    • It's not the end of the world. Our credit rating is now the same as France.

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  • jamesdegod
    you're a con man david, ahaha
    • Well Cameron stuck by his word, no second referendum.

  • Anonymous
    Glad it happened. If Texas and red states left in the US, I think that would be a good thing. The new nation of Texas would be huge as well as free. No civil war needed as liberals won't fight.
  • Anonymous
    Who was it? https://pbs. twimg. com/tweet_video_thumb/ClsV3kzUkAAXBY9. jpg
    Which one of you voted leave...
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