Ukraine or Russia, ways to measure who is winning
if we use certain methods, to measure who is "winning", that is like the innings in baseball. we don't know who won until the end of the ninth inning, but we can measure, until NOW, who is winning so far!
Ukraine - Russia war
so ukraine has been "keeping score" of the dollar value of russian losses like points. i wondered why they bothered but "score" is like baseball.
what is the price russia is paying for this war. every loss is points for ukraine. to illustrate, just as a silly example: a million dollar jet is worth a million dollars so a million points more than russia. a million dollar submarine is another million. adding up to a huge price russia has been paying to take the land from ukraine.
if russia lost one submarine but ukraine never had one and did not lose even one then ukraine won 1 - 0 in submarines. similarly if russia destroyed: i dunno 600? ukraine tanks, but russia lost a hundred more, then ukraine "won" is winning now 700 - 600.
on the other hand russia has many more tanks it could repair and bring to the battle. like a chess game, i lost "some" peices but i have others. maybe the one winning is who captured more peices... guess what! that is the metric in score and that IS the metric ukraine has been using!
surprise!
if we measure by land: russia is winning because it took some land... but it FAILED TO take the land that it tried to get!
it tried to get the capital city kyiv but lost its most elite soldiers, and lost that battle. LOSS. it is far from getting kyiv as they had tried. similarly other major cities, russia tried to capture but lost. so russia is not winning the big cities that it had tried for them.
russia is far from the goal capturing the whole country, as putin had hoped would fall with the capital. if russia controlled 1/4 of the goal then russia lost because only 25% of its goal. so it is losing 75 -25.
even the part it took, it lost a major city in the south and a large part in the north-east so russia even lost what it HAD STOLEN, that is losing land. so measuring land russia has been losing.
some other methods to measure, indicaters or criteria or metrics:
1, most destruction, or any captured Russian city, inside Russia
nice trick "limiting to only look inside russia" is like looking at hungary! not the place of battle. in fact the pro-russian saying "inside russia" admits that ukraine is not russia and they are stealing land.
anyway the land that russia captured has plenty of destruction. and the captured russian cities several were reclaimed so "russia did lose some cities" that it had stolen.
in general destroying cities is not any success because the goal was to capture. the goal was not to "destroy" so destroying is not *acheiving the goal nor any victory. this was also specified in famous chinese book of war. but even without that, simply the goal of russia was never "destroy as many cities as we can" so they can cheer yay we accomplished our goal." the goal was to capture.
2, the Kremlin is not surrounded by Ukraine forces, so... we win! neither is the capital of ukraine surrounded. a tie? from the first days russia tried to take the capital city but failed and withdrew due to heavy losses. "losses".
using such a "metric" russia would not "lose" even if moscow was surrounded and all 27 million square miles lost because "we won! the kremlin is not surrounded"? that may be good for putin to hide, but not for the country. such a metric is absurd and it is being used in propaganda.
3, Ukraine economy is functioning, exporting stuff showing both internal function and even sending out. russia did blockade but lost that "*acheivement" too, warships were forced to retreat and not just chased but due to LOSSES in ships. some major warships, much bigger than my relatives yacht! so again by this metric russia is losing.
4, ukraine schools are not operating. was that the goal? keep the kids out of school? of course not. similarly comparing "How many homeless people, due to destroyed homes, in Russia, in contrast to ukraine homes". that was not the goal...
well maybe for russia it was the goal to destroy homes with people inside or make them suffer homeless but such an immoral goal is a moral victory for ukraine. "not making any homeless" in the place "inside real russia" a moral victory for ukraine.
even in captured part rusisia propaganda already admitted that is not russia. and the homes there were not a target "get points for each house destroyed" that was not even a goal.
measuring win, most are bad metrics.
5, ukraine "failed to stop Russia's economy running" that was never a goal, and russia also failed to stop ukraine as above it is processing and exporting.
6, another metric: How many Russian Cities are under Ukraine occupation? another moral victory for ukraine they are not an aggressor. russia STOLE hundreds of towns but you stole zero... so win 100 - 0? because ukraine was not the greedy aggressor.
7, human life is precious to me so we should compare: dead Russian soldiers to ukraine's. russia hid the number proving they know they are losing. also ukraine can count the corpses on the battlefield when it liberates and reclaims land, after each of the many russian "meat attacks/assaults" russia lost many lives and the ukraine number is probably true.
anyway despite the precious value of human life, each soldier "in war potential" is tiny compared to jets and tanks etc. so having 5 million soldiers without anything else is not a metric because the opponent just needs some rapid fire guns or artillery to balance that war potential. so counting dead soldiers is not a metric in terms of battles.
8, another metric: Russia begs for weapons from North Korea, unable to produce its own indicated a failed local industry, even without ukraine bombing even one factory but... a few ukraine drones did succeed at that in a few places. russia buying from iran and korea exposed we know Russia's economy is failing.
also Putin has totalitarian control of the government, army and television with laws in a way to silence what he does not want people to say. he has something to hide.
9, but russia took land! won? when germany surrendered at the end of world war one they lost... despite they surrenderd before the allies "took german land". so measuring land is not a factor. so the captured land from ukraine is not a metric who is winning. unless we compare the goal! russia lost several major cities and the capital, that they tried to capture, as above. russia was trying to get 100% therefore russia ls losing: ukraine has more percent.
we know the goals: based on what russia tried: capture the capital and force the government to submit to russia but russia lost that as above: neither the kremlin nor kyiv is surrounded in seige. russia tried to capture the capital but lost and ukraine government still in Kiev, neither submit nor even flee.
in my opinion, my two cents is, the situation is not a stale mate. because both sides still have "peices" to move.
similarly in world war one and world war two when germany surrendered, they did not give the land to the allies! they lost when doenitz the representative surrendered! the allies won war because germany lost! not because the allies "captured cities of the opponent," FOR france or britan. all the cities, well most of the cities that allies captured, russia and the west gave to the new german government just adjusting a few borders.
10, another metric: Russian people are comfortable. that is pretty vague... getting drafted is not comfort! living in terror to say your opinion about the "special operation" is not comfort!
11, Russia economy is good as peace time? would not need to buy from iran and north korea. barely exporting fuel to china in contrast to peace time amounts.
12, in terms of lives as above: both sides are losing. Lots of dead people but that does not measure war potential. Lots of destroyed towns and land in ukraine part and in the russian part of ukraine.
the one that will surrender is the one who gets worn out! but for ukraine that is not an option because it would not remain, it would stop existing, so they can't surrender. maybe russia will get worn out? putin does not care how many people die. as long as he has tanks and people to send, he will send and keep killing the ukrainian victim.
the winner is when russia surrenders or makes a cease fire agreement then it won some land to rebuild. admittedly putin's "folly" is one of the "most idiotic" wars. trying to get land at such a price is simply insanity. "but hey! i have a hundred more tanks to send! a million more 20 year olds to send for a meat assault. lets use up the ukraine ammunition." he thinks. putin's "3 day special operation" is entering its third year! maybe he shoulda stopped on day 4! "we failed go home", but as above putin is not like that.
13, metric: the Russian Black Sea fleet.
russia expected turkey to isolate the black sea so it sent warships in before attacking ukraine but now they can't replace the losses. russia lost its major warship and many other large ones in addition to smaller warships totaling 40% of the russian fleet there. russia won? it has 60% left? russia is winning in the black sea... because we only lost 40%, but what about control of the sea! that is more important and russia was forced to retreat by ukraine missiles.
russia had one of the most powerful navies in the world, and that "super" navy suffered significant losses in black sea part, maybe low quality troops and ships? not the super navy claimed. maybe the seaman had no will to fight maybe the equipment got "skinned" to sell stuff... all of the above!
on land, russia sent very old tanks from the 1940s and 1950s called T-55 and T-62 tanks etc. i would use my industry to "repurpose" those old metal stuff like we do to old ships, but putin said "we have thousands! might as well use them!" he doesn't care about the human crew inside. rumors suspect putin killed the generals and high ranks "who failed" if so putin did the job instead of ukraine shooting at them in battle.
another "claimed goal was" prevent ukraine from joining nato' "gotta capture the capital and turn the government like in crimea 2014." this failed. the opposite! now russia is fighting nato weapons driven by ukranians... who were trained by nato'! cut your losses? "we have hundreds more old tanks to repair and send" as above.
nato' grew, adding to existing member norway and denmark, even Finland and now even Sweden joined, due to russian aggressian. almost all the land around the baltic sea is nato. except an isolated pocket "encircled" *beseiged by nato'.
if putin would decide to withdraw to the borders ukraine would not try to "capture the kremlin" it is a war of defense that could end... but as above putin does not care how many of his citizens die in meat assaults. we know from those a huge number of dead Russian soldiers.
we have no way of knowing if russia economy is good, so claiming that as a metric we are winning is relying on the fact that we can't check.
in conclusion both have some wins and both have some losses and the victim ukraine lost much and russia the aggressor lost much too. by each of these metrics and most of them except the "silly ones or ties" as above, most of them ukraine is winning.
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