Well, at the risk of somewhat understating it, measured by global standards, this is something of a tempest in a teapot. It is not good to be sure - and could have been avoided if the ten thumbed Biden Administration had bothered to give Paris a diplomatic "heads up" before it acted - but overall it will not change the fundamentals of the relationship between France and the United States.
In a nutshell, international affairs are about interests, even in the closest relationships. Sentiment is always secondary and while it may sometimes may grease the skids of diplomacy, it ultimately cannot reconcile that which is not reconcilable.
In the words of Lord Palmerston, "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." That being the case, then, the dimensions of a crisis will always be set by cold hard strategic realities.
In this case, look at it through the other end of the telescope. The United States and Britain have deep and longstanding ties with Australia. Further, while France has interests in the Pacific, they are of secondary importance to its interests in Europe. Would France be willing to forfeit those European interests in the name of getting a submarine deal with Australia?
In this case, France was looking for economic and financial gain - fair enough - in a region where its interests were secondary. In the case of Australia, it was not about to bight the hand that defends it from China in the name of a submarine deal with a power who, if faced with a simultaneous crisis in the Pacific and Europe, would choose Europe.
For the United States (and Britain via its Commonwealth ties) the submarine deal with Australia was both one of economic gain and strategic position. French built submarines would require French equipment and maintenance supplies to support, and in a crisis, the United States could not assure that France would be able to provide them. Thus, the US interest in keeping a hand in the arming of Australia.
In any case, the withdrawal of their ambassador by the French in this case is more sound than substance - again, in fairness, aggravated by American diplomatic ineptitude. To be sure, France took an economic hit but to go beyond the shouting, is France willing to sacrifice its larger strategic interests?
Will it quit NATO? It is already gaining NATO's mutual defense guarantee without having to integrate the French armed forces into that defense. Does it have a replacement? Does France, absent NATO, have any reliable allies? Will it sacrifice its essential strategic interests to do a deal with Russia? Is China, powerful but geographically distant, a viable alternative?
Even in the economic realm, outside of the EU, does France have any comparable trading partners as the United States, Australia, Japan, et. al. Is Russia, once the world's second largest economy, now its' 11th, a viable trading option? In any case, given France's treaty obligations to the EU, would she be able to trade with Russia to compensate for the loss of Western markets?
At the end of the day, then, this is mostly "sound and fury signifying nothing." If France tries to make this a greater question of relations between the USA and the rest of the Western world, Paris is apt to find itself quite alone. Because, to repeat, whatever the rest of the world thinks of the United States, raw power is the final determinant of international relations.
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The thing is more complex than it appears. Since the 1970s, Australia has wanted to become independent in the development of submarines. He tried for some time with British industry, without success. The $ 98 billion agreement with France provided for a technology transfer for the production of the submarines of the Barracuda I-class Suffren program. Over the past two years Australia was extremely unhappy with the French contribution. So, there is no surprise that the Australians have severed their relationship with France as it was written on the wall, French go away!
What has changed is Australia's use of submarines. The Suffren were submarines to defend themselves in their own waters, like the current Collins class. What changes now is that Australia is developing Virginia-class submarines to potentially attack China or at least defend against its bullying, they didn't say, but that's a logical implication.
This is now problematic for French industry. Since this year there are elections in France. Naval Group is a bulwark of Macron's nationalist politics. Naval Group was in bankruptcy, it was sold to the Italian Fincantieri. However, a few days after the actual sale, the French government led by Macron nationalizes Naval Group before the "terrible Italians" get their hands on it. This has led to a lot of discontent in Italy and a strong climate of anti-French hatred for which the European rules are valid only when they are the ones who buy, but when they have to be bought then they are no longer valid.
Now negotiations are opening for compensation for Naval Group, which, however, will not be able to compensate for the losses suffered. Risks relate to long-term assets due to declining orders. Naval Group has had problems in many countries, where it was unable to obtain the expected orders. According to “La Tribune”, Naval Group, like other French companies, is unable to anticipate the competition in those countries considered strategic for Paris. A situation also linked to the fact that the State is too present within it. Among these is Poland, which for the design of three frigates has pre-selected the Spanish Navantia and the German ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. Romania could retrace its steps by withdrawing from a 1.2-billion-euro contract for the supply of four Gowind corvettes, after the tender won by Naval Group together with the Romanian Constanța Shipyard in July 2019. Saudi Arabia in the past inclined to buy from Naval Group now turns to the Italian Fincantieri and the Spanish Navantia. Morocco seems to have excluded France for the purchase of two new FREMM frigates and turned to the Italian Fincantieri. With the end of this agreement, Naval Group is likely to go bankrupt. This has a domino effect on the French industry which affects both the Naval Group and the related industries. Given the vile behavior of the French government towards Fincantieri, no one will buy Naval Group which will go bankrupt and with it France will lose a large part of the naval investments made so far.
This is the cause of France behaviour.
Honestly I can understand why the french are mightily pissed about this. It's not just the loss of the contract but the way it was handled by Australia, US and UK. It seems France was being purposely kept in the dark by its allies and not informed until the very last days. That's a very disrespectful move and probably a pretty dumb one too. Instead the three could have notified France and worked out some sort of face-saving deal and we wouldn't be there.
People who comment miss the point. Beyond the economic aspect, it is above all that France was excluded from the strategic aspect of the Indo Pacific by these allies. This is not about France's bruised ego. Nor only about a cancelled armament contract. This is about **trust** between supposed "oldest" allies.
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That's pretty serious and is a major statement by France of their very upset by what the US did with Australia and submarines. I don't fully understand it, though. I wonder what @JulieLamar2 has to say. She is French and asked this question 2 days ago...
Are we going towards a diplomatic crisis between the Usa and France? ↗It's their loss, they are just throwing a hissy fit and they are ruining their own international reputation. Australia and the U. S. NEVER made a promise to do business with France. They also NEVER promised to refrain from reaching a deal. Australia is not a threat to France's safety nor are they enemies so there is no real reason for France to be upset. Yes, they lost out on a lucrative deal, but businesses deal with these types of bad deals all the time, they get the fuck over it and move on. How France is acting will hurt them in the future because who will want to do business with a nation whose government throws temper tantrums when they do not get their way? As for the U. S., we do not lose anything. France will come back to the table because they need the U. S. much more than we need them. Even if France forever shuns the U. S., that is no big loss to us.
Hysterical actually.
especially when you look how fucked up the diesel electric contract was.
really mismanaged and no wonder the Aussies pulled the plug.
The problem is the French can’t compete with UK or US nuke boats.
Both the US and UK will make use of any Aussie SSN facility for their own SSN’s.I just knew this from here. I hate the fact that I am politically educated, but I always longed to seem like a grown person because of my neurodevelopmental disorder. So I just know that France-US relationships are so essential and deep historically.. it's actually a surprise to know this.
Apparently this is all over a multi-billion dollar nuclear submarine intellectual and manufacturing contract dispute between the allies. France is annoyed that Australia canceled a contract with them and went with a contract with the United States instead, and it appears France found out the decision from the news, and not directly from the two other countries. This is a case of, "I'm taking my ball, and going home!" I'm sure it'll be resolved sooner rather than later.
Understandable. It costs them 50 billion euros and puts their national defense contractor in peril. It also shows Europe needs to separate itself more from the USA.
As with Trump, Biden is simply pursuing an America First policy and frequently shows not to be reliable to allies. So Europe needs to invest more in its geopolitical position and separate from the USA.What a little "bitch" the war ahead is more complicated then hurt feelings over submarines. Indo-pacific sea has a bad dictator trying to steal soverign countries. It's been happening for the last couple of years. Finally, Biden has done the right thing. If this goes according to what its supposed to, meaning free nations. I am voting for Biden, on mid terms.
I think a lot of strange things are going on around the world that are adding up to no good when you put it all together. I am bracing myself for the worst. I hope I am just looking at things with a conspiracy theorist mind right now and not through the mind of a realist... because if what I am seeing and how it is adding up is the truth, may God help us all.
This is the worst that could happen.
The U. S. now will suffer seven years of plague,
and France collapses into nothingness.
The end is near.
It's all a conspiracy.
I'll continue to grow my garden herbs.
:DOnce again, Democrats are pissing off our “allies”, who are really dependencies. Obama spied on Merkel, now Biden undercuts France on a lucrative submarine deal. Nary a word of complaint from Democrats, though.
The Democrats’ real allies are the CCP, the Iranian mullahs, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban, the Cuban Communists, and other anti-US leftists. But it’s funny seeing France, which has often stabbed the US in the back, throw a hissy fit.I think it's a very interesting thing to do and I'm not sure what to make of it. I don't think it actually has anything to do with the US giving its sub technology to the Australians. It seems so much more likely that the French pulled their ambassador as a sign of disrespect to Biden.
They're doing it because our state department is a miserable disaster. They'll be back when they want something from the US, which I'm sure the current administration will happily part with at no costs to themselves.
Just another episode of pretending "we're not friends anymore" but just wait till the next chance to make some good money... and things will go back to normal, BUSINESS, as usual, that won't change anytime soon
I mean France is the same country that endorses chemical spraying on a commercial and governmental level worldwide and gain $400 billion US dollars a year for PCA, See the Paris Climate Agreement for more information...
They could really care less, they are making an egoistical pouting move, make it worldwide news to spark a better deal with someone else. That's all it is... USA isn't the only country with nuclear submarine contracts...I think they are heist trying to het some money for their lost submarine deal with Australia. Australia will obviously be better off with nuclear submarines vs conventional propulsion in an upcoming confrontation with China.
France knows that and knows that it makes sense for the Australians to cozy up with their big brother the USA. The French just want to complain to get as much money as possible or some other valuable concessions. The US, UK and Australia should just say no.It's not the first or last time that there has been a squabble with France, in time it will pass like all the other times.
France supported the colonists in the Revolutionary War, with guns armament, etc.
We went to liberate France in two world wars, we are truly allies.It shows the world we live in. They had no problem supporting the U. S. with all their shady shit in Africa and the Middle East but when it's about money then suddenly they have issues with how things are going.
France is pissed with the deal between US/UK/Aus because Aus was going to buy Submarines from France, but those Submarines were an 'Off the shelf' nuclear design that had been redesigned to be diesel electric but the proposed budget was soaring to well past $90 Billion.
I don't think highly of France as an political entity but good on them.
And the Democrats claimed Trump alienated the European allies.
But other than that your question made me thirsty for some Burgandy.Wow... education on a Saturday morning... I only wanted to read about the fun stuff... thanks Gwen...😉
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