Doesn't China risk being trapped by its public opinion, which it is helping to shape about Taiwan?

[Julie4]

I feel that if Nightdrot reads this question he will criticize the way my question and explanation was asked 🤣

Christopher F. Clark in Sleepwalkers , showed how the various heads of state of European nations exalted nationalism among their population and how in the end these same public opinions ended up becoming an important factor in the actions of these states.

China, which exalts Chinese greatness and is very vehement about Taiwan, promising that Taiwan will return to the fold of Beijing, no matter what the cost.

By doing so, has the Chinese government not put itself under the obligation to carry out this project, thus exalting Chinese nationalism at the risk of losing all credibility, if ever China remains in the status quo?

I don't know if what I want to say is clear, tell me, if it is not the case I will delete this question

[nightdrot]

Well, actually, no. You phrased the question pretty well, allowing for linguistic differences and the like. Of course, once the whole world speaks English, you'll do even better. (Kidding.)

As far as the question, you pretty much answered it yourself, citing the work of Christopher Clark specifically. The assumption is in the West that the dictatorships - especially China and Russia - can completely ignore public opinion.

Actually, in the sense of a formed public opinion, the dictatorships pretty well can ignore their publics. However, the underlying sentiments of the peoples over which the dictatorships rule cannot be ignored - at least not completely. Such sentiments give legitimacy to the dictators and thereby afford them a level of domestic social peace.

Without such domestic peace - or at least a degree of acquiescence - the dictators would find themselves, in effect, sitting atop an active volcano. It then requiring all their will and assets just to maintain control and this thereby undermining their capacity to achieve other domestic and foreign policy goals.

In the case of China as it relates to Taiwan, it is true that the regime has, to some degree, staked its credibility on reunification of the latter to the former. Thus Beijing's legitimacy would seem to depend, to some extent, on its ability to attain that goal.

However, a few caveats are in order. First, it is not clear the degree to which the Chinese public shares the regime's ambition. The regime has posited reunification as one of its' defining goals, but it is unclear the degree to which the Chinese public is that invested in that goal.

Recall that Taiwan has not been part of China really since the 1890s. Thus in the cultural memory the relationship between Taipei and Beijing may have become attenuated. There being no way to know for sure as measuring such sentiments and public opinion in a dictatorship like China is, at best, a problematic undertaking.

Secondly, as China has moved from a communist dictatorship to a dictatorship with a quasi-free market economic system, the Chinese public may have become more consumer oriented. Thus, it may be more preoccupied with its standard of living than with an island with which it has had no formal relationship since the 19th century.

These things are variable and intangible. Certainly Russia, in WWI, was motivated in part by the pan-Slavic and pan-Orthodox Christian sentiments it had cultivated among its own people. Though even the question is blurry. Russia, first, did have strategic interests in the Balkans that put it at loggerheads with the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Secondly, as the revolution of 1905 had already demonstrated, the Romanov dynasty was facing a degree of domestic opposition that made pan-Slavism a more crucial lever in maintaining Russian domestic harmony. It is not clear - at least at this point - that China is facing anything comparable.

Indeed, the evidence would suggest that the Chinese public is far more concerned with COVID and lifting the restrictions imposed by Beijing in the wake of the pandemic than it is with any overseas issues. Thus while there can be little doubt that the Chinese government would react instantly were Taiwan, for example, to declare itself an independent state, it is not clear, even though the Chinese public would be obliged to respond to its government, that it would be a highly motivating force.

Bottom line, long answer to short question, yes, the Chinese government, in a sense, has a public sentiment tiger by the tail. Thus it might be trapped by its own rhetoric. However, it is not at all clear, Beijing's fostering of nationalist sentiments among its' population notwithstanding, just how deeply that sentiment is felt and thus how much China would be trapped by such sentiments.

[Julie4]

I'm glad that the wording of my question is not so bad today, I'd like to point out that I always take your remarks with consideration and I always try to improve myself on the basis of your thoughts.

To the I believe that the English language took enough place in the world, Anglo-Saxon leave a little more place to the French language 🤣

For the rest you have perfectly answered my question and you have perfectly understood the meaning. Although I was not sure that my explanations were clear

[nightdrot]

Thanks so much - and I was only kidding about the English language. Though I will admit that it has become the world's general lingua franca. Oh well, you guys will just have ti build a bigger empire the next time!!

As to your first remark, that is very flattering. However, don't underestimate yourself. You are one of the bright stars on this site as far as I am concerned. Intelligent, polite, inquiring. Mom and dad raised you right is all I can say.

Thanks again. Now off to a soccer match - for third graders.

[Julie4]

Thank you very much and good game to you 😊

[ZackBan]

The Chinese government have built an echo chamber around their nation and their people and inside it they are considered gods.
They never once cared about public opinion, i don't remember any apology or offer of support for other countries after the COVID outbreak. Not to mention they are known for having concentration camps and practice ethnic and religious cleansing.

So yeah I doubt the risk of being trapped by opinion is something they think about.

[Sixgunsound]

What you appear to be asking is will there come a point that China loses credibility internationally if they don’t go to war over Taiwan?

They have already been positioning forces and flying bombers over Taiwan for a while now. The point of which they lose credibility is rapidly approaching.

[ibodi]

They condisered it but you know taiwanese break it as the first world.

That is why communists would do opposite to it. Although think that you make the rules but conflict from yourself too.

[DryGermanGuy]

Public opinion in a slave-state dictatorship holds about as much value as a bag of rice. When needed, they can and will manipulate it, anyway.

[KostasKouvalis]

I don't think so because the world is scared to death of China.

[NerdInDenial]

No, the CCP has a good grip on its people; they just use the invasion of Taiwan as a method to rally its citizens.

[JustiReno]

No china had 3 kingdoms 7 princes let them deal with an independent Taiwan for the foreseeable future

[Guanfei]

Since when does China care about public opinion?

[LimitedBenefits101]

Hopefully there will be a war between them.