...And just like that, the 2018-2019 NFL Regular Season is history For this MyTake, I'm going to explore all twelve NFL teams in the postseason, and give their postseason history, my analysis, their chances, and future predictions for each team(Each projection is based off of the model on Fivethirtyeight.com).
AFC Number 6 Seed: Indianapolis Colts(10-6)
Chance to make it to the AFC Division Round: 44%
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 15%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 5%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 3%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2014-2015 AFC Championship Game @patriots(lost 45-7).
Last Postseason Win: 2014-2015 AFC Division Game @Broncos(Won 24-13).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XLIV(2009-2010) vs Saints(Lost 31-17).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl XLI(2006-2007) vs Bears(29-17 Score).
Let's look at the bright side for Hoosiers: The Colts began the season 1-5, and miraculously came back to end up with a 10-6 record, after knocking the Titans off in the last game of the season to snag a 2nd-Wild Card spot. It's their first postseason appearance since the infamous Deflategate Game against the Patriots four years ago.
However, they are arguably the worst team in the postseason this time around, and are going to need some miracles to get past the Wild Card Game, let alone the rest of the postseason. Given how suspect their secondary is, and given Andrew Luck's history in the postseason, it's going to take more than one miracle for them to win the Super Bowl this year.
My Prediction: The Colts will lose to the Texans in the Wild Card Game.
NFC Number 6 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles(9-7)
Chance to make it to the Division Round: 39%
Chance to make it to the NFC Conference Championship Round: 15%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 7%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 4%
Last Postseason Appearance: Super Bowl LII(2017-2018) vs Patriots
Last Postseason Win: Super Bowl LII(2017-2018) vs Patriots(41-33 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl LII(2017-2018) vs Patriots
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl LII(2017-2018) vs Patriots(41-33 Score)
Back after their Super Bowl win last February, if someone would have told you the Eagles would barely snatch a borderline 2nd Wild-Card spot, a Philly Fan would say you've had too much to drink.
On the other hand, it's also weird to think this season ended up on a high note for Eagles fans. Back when I wrote another another MyTake , I used the same computer model to conclude the Eagles had an 18 percent chance to make the postseason going into the month of December. And really, who could blame me for giving them those dismal chances? They still had to face the Rams, Saints, and their nasty division rival, the Cowboys.
For whatever reason, the Eagles seem to have miracles constantly happening. After losing Carson Wentz last season via injury(and this season again), they used Nick Foles as the new Quarterback, and demolished their way to their first Super Bowl title(fourth championship win), and now they have resided on miracles with an injured team, another Nick Foles ordeal, and they now limp into the postseason. Crazier things have not happened.
The good news is for Eagles fans is, they're definitely not the worst team in the postseason. The bad news is, they're in the tougher conference of the two, and the last time a team repeated as a Super Bowl winner was the Patriots(back in 2003, and 2004), and that's a team riddled as an unethical dynasty.
In other words, the Eagles pretty much have no chance. But it's crazy they're here in the postseason again, given how this season went.
My Prediction: The Eagles will lose to the Bears in the Wild Card Game.
AFC Number 5 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers(12-4)
Chance to make it to the NFC Division Round: 40%
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 17%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 8%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 4%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2013-2014 AFC Division Game @Broncos(Lost 24-17).
Last Postseason Win: 2013-2014 AFC Wild Card Game @bengals(27-10 Score).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XXIX(1994-1995) vs 49ers(lost 49-26).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: 1963-1964 American Football League Championship Game vs Patriots(51-10 Score). They've never won a Super Bowl.
It's a shame the Chargers are temporarily playing in the SubHub Center. It could explain why they've been so dominant on the road this season, and why they play so mediocre at home. Their home stadium is a half-assed soccer stadium for Pete's Sakes.
It's an even bigger shame that all sports haven't fixed the broken "seeding" system. The Chargers finished as the Number 5 Seed with a 12-4 record, solely because they didn't win their division. I personally think it needs to go strictly to win-loss records, but that's another rant for another day.
Make no mistake, the Chargers are arguably the best team in the NFL. However, how long can they endure the postseason, especially with the weakest fan base at the moment? And that nasty "#5 Seed" will still hang over them, even if it doesn't reflect their talent, and win-loss record. It's true they have a great defense, it's true Philip Rivers is having a legendary season, and it's also true they have a good run game. It's also true we just saw the Chargers take out the Chiefs in Kansas City a few weeks ago, but let's not pretend that game wasn't a miraculous comeback with some very questionable calls, and a risky 2-Point Conversion. It's just hard for me to paint a scenario where the Chargers will make it past juggernauts such as the Chief, or Patriots.
My Prediction: The Chargers will beat the Ravens in the Wild Card Round; lose to the Chiefs in the Division Round.
NFC Number 5 Seed: Seattle Seahawks
Chance to make it to the NFC Division Round: 46%
Chance to make it to the NFC Conference Championship Round: 15%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 7%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 4%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2016-2017 NFC Division Game @falcons(lost 36-20).
Last Postseason Win: 2016-2017 NFC Wild Card Game vs Lions(26-6 Score).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XLIX(2014-2015) vs Patriots(lost 28-24).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl XLVIII(2013-2014) vs Broncos(43-8 Score).
So, are the Seahawks the worst postseason team in the NFC, or were they just unlucky to be in the same division as the Rams? They did beat the Chiefs recently, right?
Either way, they didn't have the strongest schedule this season. They did have a surprisingly good run, and they have a solid team. The last time they were in the postseason, they were destined to lose against a destined Falcons team(well, one we thought was anyway).
The problem is, they're simply not as good as the rest of the teams in the NFC. It's arguable that the Eagles are now better than the Seahawks, given the strength of schedule, and strength of victory difference. And even if they do make it to the Super Bowl, I think the last team they want to see is a rematch against the Patriots, right?
My Prediction: The Seahawks will lose to the Cowboys in the Wild Card Game.
AFC Number 4 Seed: Baltimore Ravens(10-6)
Chance to make it to the NFC Division Round: 60%
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 24%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 11%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 6%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2014-2015 AFC Division Game @patriots(lost 35-31)
Last Postseason Win: 2014-2015 AFC Wild Card Game @Steelers(30-17 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XLVII(2012-2013) vs 49ers.
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl XLVII(2012-2013) vs 49ers(34-31 Score)
The Ravens began the season with a rough start, including a loss against my Bengals. When Joe Flacco got injured, many people at that point completely doubted their chances to rebound.
Similar to the Colts, they made a miraculous turnaround, and sneaked in the postseason, with a little help from Game 16, and a Steelers collapse. They've been beating opponents the old-school way: An elite run game, and arguably the best defense in the NFL. The problem is, they have very little passing game anymore. If they want to make a surprise run like they did in the 2012 season, they will have to up their passing game. Otherwise, they won't make it past the run-stopping Chargers this time around, especially since the Chargers are oddly dominant on the road.
My Prediction: The Ravens will lose to the Chargers in the Wild Card Game
NFC Number 4 Seed: Dallas Cowboy(10-6)
Chance to make it to the AFC Division Round: 54%
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 18%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 6%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 3%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2016-2017 Division Game vs Packers(Lost 34-31)
Last Postseason Win: 2014-2015 NFC Wild Card Game vs Lions(24-20 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: : Super Bowl XXX(1995-1996) vs Steelers
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: : Super Bowl XXX(1995-1996) vs Steelers(27-17 Score)
The good news for America's Team, is they clinched their division two weeks ago, and were able to relax their way into the postseason. The bad news is, they are competing with the Seahawks as the worst NFC Team in the postseason.
They should easily win the Super Bowl, as long as the opposing team doesn't score more than 14 points. The problem is, they are potentially facing offensive juggernauts such as the Rams, and Saints; should they made it to the Super Bowl, what will happen if they face a Chargers, or Chiefs team? The Cowboys rely too much on their defense to win the Super Bowl this time around. This wouldn't be a big deal, if they had a Bears, or Ravens type of defense. Instead, they have an above average defense that isn't quite elite.
My Prediction: The Cowboys will beat the Seahawks in the Wild Card Game; lose to the Saints in the Division Game.
AFC Number 3 Seed: Houston Texans(11-5)
Chance to make it to the AFC Division Round: 56%
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 18%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 7%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 3%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2016-2017 AFC Division Game @patriots(Lost 34-16)
Last Postseason Win: 2016-2017 AFC Wild Card Game vs Raiders(27-14 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Never(They're the only team in the NFL to have never appeared in any championship game).
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Never(They are one of five teams to have never won a championship title).
The Texans just concluded their 17th season in the NFL, and they're already made it to the playoffs five times, and even have some postseason wins under their belt. On top of this, they are playing arguably the weakest team in the postseason this weekend(Colts), and it looks like they could storm in to the Division Round. Sounds gravy, right Texans fans?
Well, the Colts are a tough division rival, the Texans had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and they still don't have any true elite talent on either side of the ball. They have an atrocious history in the Division Round, especially against the dynasty-led Patriots. However, after an 0-3 start, they're one of the only teams in history to not only rebound with a postseason birth, but also to nearly have the best record in the NFL. We can at least celebrate that fact.
My Prediction: Texans will beat the Colts in the Wild Card Game; lose to the Patriots in the Division Game.
NFC Number 3 Seed: Chicago Bears(12-4)
Chance to make it to the NFC Division Round: 61%
Chance to make it to the NFC Conference Championship Round: 27%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 13%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 7%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2010-2011 NFC Championship Game vs Packers(Lost 21-14)
Last Postseason Win: 2010-2011 NFC Division Game vs Seahawks(35-24 score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XLI(2006-2007) vs Colts(Lost 29-17)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl XX(1985-1986) vs Patriots(46-10 Score).
The 2018 Bears are starting to look like the 1985 Bears: A stellar defense, but lackluster offense.
However, this defense isn't quite as good as their 1985 defense(which was arguably the best defense in NFL history), but Khalil Mack is fun to watch. Mitchell Trubisky, not-so-fun to watch. The Bears did well enough for a 12-4 run, but this was also in a dismantled NFC North Division as well. Fear not-the Bears are a great team, and a true threat, but they're too lopsided in a league which needs a balanced approached.
My Prediction: Bears will beat the Eagles in the Wild Card Game; lose to the Rams in the Division Game
AFC Number 2 Seed: New England Patriots(11-5)
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 64%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 29%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 14%
Last Postseason Appearance: Super Bowl LII(2017-2018) vs Eagles(Lost 41-33)
Last Postseason Win: 2017-2018 AFC Championship Game vs Jaguars(24-20 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl LII(2017-2018) vs Eagles(Lost 41-33)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl LI(2016-2017) vs Falcons(34-28 Score OT)
There are two ways to look at this scenario. One of them is more Boston-friendly than the other.
Since the Patriots hired Bill Belichick as their Head Coach in the 2000-2001 season, every season they have won a BYE for the postseason, they have made the Super Bowl that season-all eight times. The Patriots are 4-0 against all of the current teams in the postseason this year. The Patriots are still the Number 2 Seed, and might have Home-Field Advantage in the postseason until the Super Bowl, and history tells us the Patriots rarely lose at home(they rarely lose at all). The Patriots are in a dynasty which has seen the Super Bowl four times since the 2010s began.
However, history is just that-history. History told us the Eagles wouldn't beat the Patriots last year in the Super Bowl. History damn sure went against the logic of the Giants beating the Patriots twice in a four-year span. I wrote in another Take on here that this is arguably the worst team of the Patriots dynasty since the 2001-2002 season. Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski are arguably having their worst legitimate seasons as starters in the NFL, and Josh Gordon is suspended again. And even though their defense isn't quite the dumpster fire it was in Super Bowl LII, they're still struggling, and definitely can't stop the run. At the end of the day, Bill Belichick is their Head Coach, and that right there should snag them another postseason victory.
My Prediction: Patriots will beat Texans in the Division Game; lose to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
NFC Number 2 Seed: Los Angeles Rams(13-3)
Chance to make it to the NFC Conference Championship Round: 59%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 26%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 13%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2017-2018 NFC Wild Card Game vs Falcons(Lost 26-13)
Last Postseason Win: 2004-2005 NFC Wild Card Game @Seahawks(27-24 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XXXVI(2001-2002) vs Patriots(Lost 20-17)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl XXXIV(1999-2000) vs Titans(23-16 Score)
The Rams are no longer in St. Louis anymore, and the name Kurt Warner is now foreign to this franchise.
Nevermind that. It's hard to think a team that ended the season 13-3 is on a downward spiral to go in the playoffs, but this team was on track to finish 16-0 after beating the Chiefs in one of the best NFL games of all time. Similar to the Chiefs, their BYE Weeks happened, and suddenly, we see a dip in performance.
The Rams are talented all around. On paper, they have the best roster possible-a solid Quarterback, one of the best Running Backs in the NFL, the best Offensive Line in the NFL, a great receiving corps, Ndamakong Suh, and Aaron Donald on defense, and a genius(literally) for a Head Coach. The problem lately, has been execution. Make no mistake-this team might be the best in the NFL, and they are still a Super Bowl threat, but they have some holes in their secondary which can cost them, and they've had a lack of postseason experience compared to the other NFC Teams.
My Prediction: Rams will beat the Bears in the Division Game; lose to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game.
AFC Number 1 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs(12-4)
Chance to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Round: 63%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 39%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 20%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2017-2018 AFC Wild Card Game vs Titans(Lost 22-21)
Last Postseason Win: 2015-2016 AFC Wild Card Game @Texans(30-0 Score)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl IV(1969-1970) vs Vikings
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl IV(1969-1970) vs Vikings(23-7 Score)
Sorry Chiefs fans, but I have to mention history here.
Bizarrely enough, it's probably not a good thing the Chiefs have unanimous home-field advantage throughout the postseason. The Chiefs have lost six consecutive home games in the playoffs since the 1994-1995 season. The Chiefs haven't been to the AFC Championship Game since the 1993-1994 season, and haven't won a Super Bowl in nearly 50 years.
Okay, breath Chiefs fans: I'll stick to my guns, and ignore history for now. The great news is, this might be the best Chiefs team of all time, and they might have the best offense in the history in the NFL. With this being said, they do have one fatal flaw: They have the worst ranked defense in the NFL, and this could be problematic if the Patriots offense does get rolling, and/or they face a soaring Saints/Rams team in the Super Bowl. Make no mistake, Patrick Mahomes could be something better than we've ever seen-even better than Tom Deflaty, or Forehead Manning. Mahomes' 50 Touchdown Pass, 5,000+ Passing 'Yards season is historic, and will be very hard to repeat again. However, can they finally put the nail in the coffin, and win the Super Bowl again? Their counterpart Royals in the MLB were able to go against history, and do it in 2015-maybe the Chiefs can return the favor?
My Prediction: Chiefs will beat the Chargers in Division Game; Chiefs will beat Patriots in AFC Championship Game; Lose to the Saints in Super Bowl LIII.
NFC Number 1 Seed: New Orleans Saints(13-3)
Chance to make it to the NFC Conference Championship Round: 65%
Chance to make it to Super Bowl LIII: 41%
Chance to win Super Bowl LIII: 21%
Last Postseason Appearance: 2017-2018 NFC Division Game @Vikings(Lost 29-24)
Last Postseason Win: 2017-2018 NFC Wild Card Game vs Panthers(Won 31-26)
Last Super Bowl/Championship Appearance: Super Bowl XLIV(2009-2010) vs Colts
Last Super Bowl/Championship Win: Super Bowl XLIV(2009-2010) vs Colts(31-17 Score).
Drew Brees is coin-toss away from being the NFL MVP. The Saints are ranked number one in the NFL this season. According to the computer model I'm using, and the Vegasodds, they are the projected Super Bowl winners.
And as boring as this is going to seem for me, I'm going to have to go with the flow: The Saints will win Super Bowl LIII for their second Super Bowl in the last nine seasons. Except this time, I doubt they face the Colts again, and I really doubt they have to put up with Peyton Manning again. This Saints team is one of the greatest teams in the history of the NFL. They have a Quarterback/Running Back/Wide Receiver combo(Brees/Kamara/Thomas) that simply can't be matched. Their offense line is phenomenal. Their defense is still solid, and possibly the best defense the Saints have had in the past 20 years. This team virtually has no flaws. It astounds me they lost three games, and they were potentially a 16-0 team going in to the postseason. Can they be beat?
My Prediction: The Saints will defeat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIII to win their second Super Bowl in history!
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