Is China Weaponizing Shipping?

[RavVid]

I am hoping someone on GAG knows all about shipping.

As with rare earth metals, China has been allowed to dominate some metals. One of these is antimony and it is regarded as a critical metal. Currently China is limiting exports and as it has 80% of the supply it is in a good position to disrupt the US which closed it's last domestic mine in 2001.

Recently an Australia company shipped 50 tonnes to a US company but it seems to have been to been transshipped in China. Would make sense in that lots of ships go from China to US.

Because China doesn't want US to have antimony they held shipment for 3 months and only agreed to release it if it was shipped back to Australia.

In effect China is blockading the US on antimony.

I am curious if China has capacity to disrupt shipping to the US more widely than it's own exports? Maybe there is a shipping expert on GAG.

Updates

9 mo

A later thought I had is that this might make Taiwan even more strategic to the US as it is already a transshipment hub.

There is going to be more US trade with countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia as well as South Korea and Japan. My vague understanding of shipping is the large container ships just want to make one stop. So there are ports that function as collection and distribution depots.

So a free Taiwanese port would seem to be in US strategic interests.

[Julie07]

It is crucial to note that Chinese restrictions on antimony, gallium and germanium are seen as retaliatory measures against US restrictions on technologies.


China has invested heavily in ports around the world as part of its "Belt and Road" (New Silk Roads) initiative. This strategy, sometimes referred to as the "string of pearls", involves the acquisition or development of strategic port terminals in Asia, Africa and Europe. Although China denies that this strategy has military objectives, it does give it considerable influence over global supply chains. By controlling key infrastructure, China could potentially exert pressure or disrupt the flow of goods, even those not of Chinese origin, in the event of geopolitical tensions.

However, its ability to project power on a global scale is still developing compared with that of the United States, but it is increasingly capable of operating far from its shores.

[RavVid]

In this case China has not so much potentially but has in actuality disrupted the flow of goods it wants to restrict & constrain. I was surprised to read this yesterday.

It looks more like WW2 everyday as one might expect since the geography hasn't changed.

[slatyb]

That would be an act of war. But they are the primary supplier of rare earth elements. They have been selling them more cheaply than other nations could extract them, but now many Western countries are dependent on China for these metals and it will take considerable time for them to develop local supply.

[RavVid]

It is definitely a gray zone tactic to disrupt flow of critical metals. The West doesn't seem to have figured out to deal with gray zone tactics like Chinese ships dragging anchors through cables in the Baltic and around Taiwan. Or blatantly stealing IP.

I just hadn't known till yesterday antimony was also a critical metal though not a rare earth.

US EXIM (export import bank) is making investments into production in Australia with guaranteed takeoffs (purchases). An ancillary art of AUKUS.

The later is quite critical because China is happy to sell at low prices to bankrupt companies outside China so large investment is highly risky with out market certainty but G7 initiatives seems to resolving that.

A couple of our companies are already producing metal. With market certainty, ramp up could be quite rapid.

There are a couple of Australian companies that are already producing

[slatyb]

"Rare earth" is just a row of the periodic table. There are other elements just as critical to modern technology, lithium in particular. The rare earth metals are critical to making strong magnets among other uses.

[RavVid]

Oh yes indeed and they are not that rare. They are rare in that mine-able quantities of suitable concentrations are not found that much. But then it hasn't worth looking for them until recently.

One of our companies was mining rutile and just dumped the useless rare earth shit in a back paddock. Over 30 years they built up a nice little stock pile. It is two years off from producing metal.

[DryGermanGuy]

It’s China, they will weaponize everything and anything. In a war of systems, their long game is going to go for 50+ years.

[RavVid]

It is a matter of if we let them and if their demographic collapse ruins them first. They might be back to the paddy fields in 50 years.

[AI Opinion]

The situation you describe illustrates how geopolitical tensions can impact global trade and supply chains, especially with critical materials like antimony. While China can influence its own exports, its capacity to disrupt broader global shipping is more complex, depending on international maritime regulations and the global shipping industry's competitive landscape. Historically, China has exercised control over certain industries, but global reliance tends to diversify risks. For comprehensive insight, consulting maritime trade experts or geopolitical analysts might prove beneficial to understand both the current scenario and potential future ramifications.

[strateguy632]

It is by preventing boats to continue freely. It said i won't let you. A solution is learn from this don't let your boat near china!

[RavVid]

That Australian company has learnt that lesson. But there is a further implication. If most ships flow from China to US that will be the most price competitive route.

So if China took over Taiwan - which is a major transshipment hub - than it has a soft embargo power. US can still import from SE Asia but at higher cost. High enough perhaps to make it noncompetitive perhaps.