If you were told one of these two facts on 1/1/2022, which would sound more unbelievable to you?

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

That within 2 months, Russia would launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine

That after 6 months, Ukraine would still hold most of it's territory

Updates

+1 y

6 weeks, not six months for option B

[MrOracle]

When Putin invaded Crimea, it was clear that it was only the first step of a larger plan - much like Hitler invading the Sudetenland, and with the same BS excuses. Once Biden was in office, it was only a matter of time - Putin has no fear of Sleepy Joe.

I *am* surprised that the Russians have performed so poorly. The Ukrainians are brave, but they are vastly under-equipped and under-supplied, so on paper, the Russians should have made quick work of them. But the Russian military is so inept and poorly trained (not to mention poorly led and supplied) that it's shocking. If Russia didn't have nukes, they'd be treated like a third-world country - and the almost are anyway.

[Contra1166]

honestly Ukraine is not under equipped especially at this point. They may have smaller troop numbers but what they lack in quantity they make up for in quality. I'd even go so far to say the Ukrainians have one the best armies in all of Europe only behind say France and Russia

[MysticDevice]

I fully expected Russia to attack but I thought for sure Ukraine would get steamrolled.

Amazingly though, the Ukrainians and their balls of steel are hangin in there.

But If I can get real here for a sec, its a situation that never should have happened. Ukrainians lives are being destroyed by Russian conscripts who have no choice and just want to go home. Russian citizens who just want to live their lives in peace are now suffering the consequences for something they have no control over.

No one's having a good time.

[Genie23]

I would say B as Russia has the second highest military power in the world. It's just been 4 months but this year has given me too many shocks and surprises, lol. One of them is against all the odds, Ukraine is giving a tough fight and teaching Russia a lesson.

[Preeti161101]

A 6-year-old boy stands near the grave of his mother, who was buried in their yard in Kyiv oblast. (Ph: Rodrigo Abd/AP) https://t.co/KHkIzv7c79

[Genie23]

This is so heartbreaking. :-(

[Preeti161101]

@Genie23 Yes, so terrible 😔

[t-8900]

B because it's hard to take and then hold invaded land in modern conventional warfare, no matter the fighting strength. It can quickly become a logistical nightmare and there's a reason we had to pull out of the middle east despite are vastly superior fighting force, technology, and intel

[genericname85]

neither one surprises me. in times of globalization, the battlefields are way more even, cause both sides have the same weapons. it's more or less just a question of how many people you throw into the meat grinder of the war and then also terrain has a bit of influence too.

[Contra1166]

I don't think the war is going as well for Ukraine as the media says. I think the Kiev offensive was a diversion to tie up the bull of the Ukrainian army near their capital. If the Russians make big gains the the east and destroy significant portions of Ukraine's army via encirclements it's over. The Russians might shock the world in an Austerlitz style battle.

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

Well the northern front collapsed so they aren't tied up by the capital.

[Contra1166]

they still have troops stationed there, all the peace talks are nothing. The Russians are buying time so they can blitz with overwhelming firepower

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

Then why didn't they go in with a blitz on day one when they had the element of surprise?

[NathanDavis]

I would have believed both... but none of the options have happened yet

this invasion was definitely not full scale, Russia didn't use all of their true capabilities

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

Well they didn't use nukes.

[NathanDavis]

there's no need to... as I commented weeks ago, most likely... Putin just wants to keep the East and apparently the sea as well, just like he's done with Crimea

besides that... this is not a war exactly, this is an invasion and that changes things a lot, Russia just can't use their full capability of their armed forces and resources against civilian resistance, not without causing great damage and also risking international confrontation

and they have also learned from Crimea... Putin promised the liberation of Crimea as well as "progress and wellbeing" for the people but ever since... they have been left in deplorable conditions, they're certainly not doing better with Russia, so that's another reason for Putin not wanting to cause even more damage with a full scale war, because it's going to cost them a whole lot of money, money they're running out of

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

Oh they don't want to kill civilians? There couldn't be other explanations like deplorable logistics and organization? I mean they're talking on unencrypted coms.

[NathanDavis]

you're arguing different things now...

first... I never said anything about killing civilians, if you want to discuss that situation, then make a new, different argument and we can discuss that if you like

second... the success of the invasion is not the point of my argument, what I mentioned refers to the actual concept of "full scale" within the military context, which, in this case.. is just not accurate

for Russia to be doing an awful job with a limited force they sent to invade Ukraine there's no argument to make, that's been more than obvious but I am not arguing about that

I did refer to your premise of "full scale war" or capability, that's very different

[jshm2]

Russia has not launched a full scale invasion though. Hence why Ukraine still hold most of its territory.

[Ad_Quid_Orator]

Oh yeah, they have one hand tied behind their back...

... by their horrible logistics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w

They could throw more tanks and troops into the fight, but they won't do much good without fuel or food.

[Agape93]

B hands down. I didn't expect them to last 2 weeks, much less pushing Russians back out

[Still-alive]

Definitely B