7.5 Billion Reasons Why You Shouldn't Bet on 2021

7.5 Billion Reasons Why You Shouldnt Bet on 2021

Hypothetically, let's say, in December of 2020, all the leading world health organizations announce that there will be a Covid vaccine that will be available for distribution starting January 1, 2021. A lot of people would be thinking, that means, life goes back to normal starting in January, but I don't think many people have actually thought this through in terms of the reality of what a vaccine would mean.

Our planet currently has roughly 7.5 billion people on it, all of whom would presumably need a vaccine. Now we know from vaccine programs for things like the flu, not everyone actually needs a vaccine if you get to the threshold where we develop herd immunity. Herd immunity, or community immunity, comes about when a certain percentage of the population is vaccinated to the point where there aren't enough active carriers of the virus to allow for rampant unchecked spread.

7.5 Billion Reasons Why You Shouldnt Bet on 2021

So how do we get there? Comparing it to the flu and what is required for herd immunity, we would need roughly 50%-70% of the population to be vaccinated so if we luck into that 50% number, that still means 3.75 billion people worldwide would need this vaccine. Currently, in the US, the CDC reports that it can produce 198 million flu vaccines for US consumers before they begin to run out of supply or 1.5 billion worldwide....so....you can kind of of see where this is not going.

Then, what no one wants to start thinking about is who will actually get the vaccine first or at all? We can kind of nudge kids out of the way since they are shown to be least affected by Corona, so that knocks 2.2 billion out worldwide leaving us still with 5.3 million ish who would still need a vaccine (there is still no official confirmation with medical science that those who have had Covid can't get it again---see Influenza). One could reasonably argue that front line workers will be the first to get vaccines, but after that, it basically seems like it will be a free for all...

7.5 Billion Reasons Why You Shouldnt Bet on 2021

...but we all know the bottom line of this all too. These companies who manufacture these medications and vaccines and pills are notorious for wanting a "give me an arm and a leg" cut. Humanitarianism be damned! It is not likely this will be free or affordable for a majority of people considering there will be a limited supply. You can't make this vaccine $20, 50, or maybe even $100 a pop, because then anybody would have easy access to it which creates an overwhelming pressure on the supply/demand chain which will already exist in an extreme in this case because everyone is basically vulnerable to Corona.

Then you must add to that the time it will take to get people vaccinated. It won't be like, this whole office or this whole neighborhood all gets shots, so 10% of your co-workers at your job may be lucky enough to get vaccines by the time 2021 ends, but that isn't enough to return to life as we know it. So as with everything in the world, let the discrimination start---those that got their vaccines, free to start new life, those that haven't gotten one, stay at home and away from everyone else. Along with that discrimination will invariably come corruption and abuse of power with those at the top hoarding and supplying their families and friends rather than their nations and those most vulnerable with vaccines or overcharging delaying the potential get of herd immunity.

7.5 Billion Reasons Why You Shouldnt Bet on 2021

So if you're excited that all our problems will be solved with a vaccine if it comes in 2021, I wouldn't bet on that. You want to feel hopeful with the start of a new year, and feel like things can be better with a vaccine, but the reality is, it may be the year after that or that where we are finally at a place where we can actually treat Corona like the flu and live our lives.

7.5 Billion Reasons Why You Shouldn't Bet on 2021
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Most Helpful Guys

  • BeMuse
    It's more like 75-86% of the population that needs to be immune simultaneously for heard immunity. The big problem is that antibody titers plummet rapidly in those that were previously infected. The average half-life is about 73 days. So generally after about 2 months most people will lose immunity. With SARS it was about 2 years. So that means you need to vaccinate 246,150,000 282,252,000 people in America alone within a two month window for it to be successful in our country. I suppose we could scale up vaccine manufacturing in the USA. At our current manufacturing levels we’d be deficient but it’s not an insurmountable task to scale up. The bigger task will be 1) the logistics of giving that many doses in such a small time window, and 2) convincing the populous that early vaccines are safe enough. On top of that the effectiveness and safeness of RNA vaccines and viral vector vaccines for use with coronaviruses in general is questionable. Even if they are safe you might only witness 50% effectiveness which would not do the job… We’d see better results with a protein sub-unit vaccine like Novavax’s M-Matrix candidate but that is still a long way off. Then you’d have to strictly control the borders and travel in general to maintain a healthy population. This also means America needs to be far more independent and become nationalistic taking over our own supply chains and manufacturing base again. We can’t constantly shuffle around the world to make globalist deals… As far as the rest of the world, well that’s their problem. If we clean up our country first, then we can start to try to eradicate covid in other nations afterwards as a humanitarian effort for world safety. It’s not something that can just be distributed evenly among all countries. We really need to conquer it country by country and region by region. There will be winners and losers, but that's just the way it is...
    Is this still revelant?
    • Anonymous

      And I'm chuckling sarcastically because we couldn't even initially manage something so simple as using our wartime powers to conscript companies to mass produce ventilators as people were literally dropping dead so this idea that we're going to suddenly get it together enough to produce what we actually need to accomplish a goal of herd immunity...well. They are already quietly whispering ahead of the game, that because every country will be fighting for the same supplies, it's not going to happen.

      Now we're at a point where outside of the Flu pandemic of 1918, the world has not experienced something that affected every country on earth to this scale because we are so insanely internationally mobile as compared to back then where shutting down a few international ships would have done it. The current president is saying we don't need lockdowns, but yes, we do need one of all outgoing and incoming flights out of the country until we can achieve herd immunity but no one is going to do that because it's too hard and would further cripple the airline industry but we have to do the hard things now or we can't get to the end result. Winners and losers is right!

    • BeMuse

      We have advanced vaccine manufacturing technologies that could make it possible. We could stockpile them around the country for administration during a small time window, but there would have to be a huge awareness campaign prior to executing the plan. Just anti-vaxxers alone would probably spoil the plans even if we have a vaccine that is 85-95% effective and 100% safe. So yeah I’m not exactly optimistic, but I got out of the cities a couple of years ago and have my acreage so no biggie.

      Personally I don’t think lock downs serve much of a purpose at the moment. In January if the world was willing to stop international air travel and passenger ships for like 2 months it would have saved everyone a lot of suffering and death but no one was on board for that regardless of the country or political position. Lock downs now are kind of futile. We have to wait until we get our vaccines in order, then lock the borders and vaccinate. Afterwards we have to strictly regulate international travel. Even then it might not work out…

  • Anonymous
    First it will be given to vournerable people, whose medical condition is most likely will deadly in case that person gets Covid...

    Why people who already have antibodies to it need it? ( People who had it and are immune to it) I had it twice, second time it was just mild inconvenience, compared to first hell times... So I wouldn't really consider getting as again I wouldn't know what is in it...

    Price, yes it is huge think and I don't think that it will stop at 100... As too many greaddy animals are up top... But I would think so, that government would pick up the bill, as otherwise there will be no taxes paid for longer time, so in long run, it would be beneficial to them...

    By some calculations it will take 2-5 years after they will start distribution of working (we don't know December, can and most likely will be delayed) vacancies too get to somewhat normal life, but then it will be changed anyway, so 2019 normal will not be back ever.
    Is this still revelant?
    • Anonymous

      That's a bigger issue right? Who knows if this thing will even work given the levels of mutation already making it difficult to construct a working vaccine. The first estimates I saw for a potential vaccine were minimum $500 US and you may require several doses. That's a $500 ask to a 1st world country with unemployment at it's highest rate in years. You'll be asking people who are still endanger of eviction with no jobs to spend their last dimes IF they have them. Now trot off to a third world country where fighting for food and water are an every day struggle---and ask for even $50. It's just not feasible. This is a pharmaceutical cash cow whom we have steadily fed for years without regulations in the US---we have allowed these companies to basically set their own prices which will be to our own peril. I wholeheartedly agree with an estimate of at least 2-5 years for any kind of minimal nationwide (forget international) recovery.

    • Anonymous

      And as you wrote that $500 is for lottery ticket, without any guarantee it will work, if even it worked to person next to you or it even might harm those who are vournerable, with already weak immune system...

      In the end it may course another waive of infection...

      But maybe I'm looking to negative at it, when history says that it was that way for long and not planning to change...

      Or how many mistakes happened due to incompetent employees or just pure greed of management.

      And yes I heard that it will have to be 2 or 3 times every 4 weeks...

      About 3rd world countries nobody cares and never will, they just treat them as modern slaves who will do it all for nothing or pennies, they can reproduce again anyway and 1st world will see no difference, this is not my view on it.

    • Anonymous

      You're not wrong

    • Show All

Most Helpful Girls

  • nerdybutlazy
    Amazing points, I've more or less mentally prepared for lockdown when 2021 comes rolling around again becuase even if the vaccines are ready with the discussions around it and all the myths of it causing things like the zombie apocalypse, or it giving people mutant powers, it has freaked some people out. So we'd also have to look at the amount of people even willing to get the vaccine
    Is this still revelant?
  • Kitty46
    Why there are people that don’t want the vaccine when it ready? What if it not safe? When they have the vaccines ready, what if people are allergic, what will happen? How can they make vaccines for everyone in different countries? I wish they make something to put it in the air, let people breathe it in.
    Is this still revelant?

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What Girls & Guys Said

  • blank_expression
    My job sent me into it in February, I caught it, got over it and it has been out of my mind since except for these stupid psychological warfare masks meant to enforce the fraud it is. As soon as the election is over the Democrats will forget about Covid and things will go back to normal. As for the vaccine, only a fool would take it.
  • godfatherfan
    They are rushing vaccines. No way I would take one until they are absolutely sure it is safe. That means the CDC and WHO giving their endorsement. Due to the piece of trash we have in the White House, who is actively working against a vaccine and cure, they have been hindered so far. But after Tuesday , the countdown to ending the 4 yr nightmare begins. Once Biden gets in office, we can see what a true leader is all about.
  • Elsa143
    I was thinking that it will get better from February or March 2021.

    :( How long we gotta live like this?

    This time is the WORST for graduates looking for jobs. Or even college dropouts looking to test their talent and experience new things.
  • mistixs
    "One could reasonably argue that front line workers will be the first to get vaccines, but after that, it basically seems like it will be a free for all."
    What about elderly people and people with pre-existing conditions, the people most at risk from the virus?
  • DannyUk2017
    I'll male it short and simple for this "covid vaccine" they do trials, they already start it! So there would be lots of "patient trials"/to not name them otherwise that would have the vaccine first then they would be "observed"... already they do this in Uk!
    • look at SARS, and MERS, no vaccine, I wouldn't expect one for covid either, but if they do manage to pull it off it would be a miracle,

    • Actually Natalie they pulled "one out" for the Uk and they say will be a vaccine for every Brit from 2021, but no vaccine for me, Thank you! 😁😁

    • CasaNorba

      yeap they already do have plenty of vaccines with tracking device on each one of them, ready to be implanted in all of us

    • Show All
  • CasaNorba
    vaccine or not I'm gonna try everything within my rights and power to not get that shit because I sure as fuck do not want no tracking device put in me. or better yet that vaccine that you and everyone of you is depositing all your hopes on can no doubt contain the real virus that you all are ignorantly fearing at the moment
    • mistixs

      How can a vaccine inject a tracking device

    • CasaNorba

      I dont know @mistixs maybe in a similar way a trojan might infect and steal information from your computer without you even noticing. or perhaps the same way you microchip your dog just in case he/she gets loose

    • Massageman

      @mistixs A tell-tale dye is mixed in with the vaccine that can show up under a special light.

    • Show All
  • 007kingifrit
    ok you don't understand how herd immunity or nationalism works

    we don't need to vaccinate more than 60 ish percent of the population; maybe less

    and we don't need to vaccinate other countries just ban travel with them and ban immigration
  • imlost_gb
    there was a news report where they put covid-23 and I don't know if that was by accident but that really freaked me tf out.
  • 19magic
    I wouldn't want it even if there was a vaccine tbh I just wouldn't trust it, for the same reason I've never took the flu vaccine
  • Jacked_Jones
    The World is a Stage, and people where accept the special bill gates vaccine are https://unsplash.com/photos/GHOiyov2TSQ
  • Correct. I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
    Besides money is everything, so those with money can get it if they want to. Being poor is a punishment for existing.
    • Anonymous


  • J9inva
    Better yet, go back to normal now. I haven’t done anything differently since this whole thing start. Im fine.
  • zeitgeist057
    Also, you have anti-vaxxers who won't take it even when it is available.
    • Ryfyle

      To be fair, what a Vaccine going to do against this magical demon virus that should have totally killed 80% of the human population.

    • @Ryfyle 80%? i thought mortality was 1%-2&?

    • Ryfyle

      @zeitgeist057 Seem like you missed that "Should" part. And the WHO knocks the Death rate down to.5% on average.

  • Alyssa11
    I'm nodding as I read through your writing... How did we get to this? I still don't understand.
  • Kaneki05
    I hope 2021 is like 2020 honestly one of the best years i've ever had. So i am 100% betting on 2021 if it looks like it will be very much the same. And the fastest vaccine was done in 4 years so anything before that i ain't trusting. heck there suppose to take up to 15-20 years to develop, cause there super easy to make but the problem is testing they need to test millions before they give it to humans. And humans can even be paralyzed by bad vaccines. So heck it's not the money for vaccines that needs to be worried about or how there gonna supposedly been given for free, it's more the worry there gonna rush them make ones with really bad side effects that may not even show up for a couple years.
    • Anonymous

      I think it's ridiculous that these organizations are asking us to blindly trust this vaccine allegedly coming soon without having gone through that years of research and testing. We all get that there is this intensely insane level of pressure to get it done----we're all pissed that our lives have been disrupted the way they have and people have lost jobs, housing, etc, but what good is a vaccine if the cure is worse than the virus or worse, you die or have debilitating side affects. I plan to someday take it, but after I've seen what it's done to the first rounds of people and seen that it actually works. Other than that, I already have worn a mask for the better part of this year, so what's another year or two at this point, eh!

    • Kaneki05

      If you look towards most scientists in the medical field especially ones that deal with vaccines they tell you to be wary and tell you it's a long process and tell you to always be septic over new Vaccines and Medical drugs. Meanwhile if you look to politicians who have no idea about Vaccines or medical science they all say it's coming soon, we need to rush it and when it's out everyone needs to take it otherwise they will danger other's, we can assure it will be 100% safe.
      It's true what they say never trust a Politician.
      We've always gotta listen to people in the field who actually know what there doing over a Mouth piece to a population who has no idea what there saying.

  • genericname85
    i'm more scared of the covid vaccine than of covid... and im for vaccines generally.
    • Anonymous

      The fear is valid though. If medical science has shown time an time again that in order for a vaccine to be successful we must test it the world over before we even half consider it to be ethical and safe, and yet, here we are staring at one in a tube in less than a year or two, why wouldn't you have at least some concerns right?

    • thing is: we don't know shit about long term effects before we tested a vaccine for 7 or AT LEAST 5 years... not "barely one". as you mentioned it was proven time and time again. the swine flu vaccine back in 2009/10 harmed WAY more people than the actual swine flu did with PERMANENT and CRIPPELING health implications.

      Corona has proven not to be so dangerous. in fact the worlds most renowned virologist said the covid pandemic LESS bad than a bad flu pandemic. plus we have already harmed more people with the measures than covid ever will and that doesn't even account the hastily botched vaccine that awaits us.

      and as if this wasn't enough, this new vaccine is an rna vaccine, which will mess with the human genome... this is completely new and unprecidented. those sorts of vaccines were never before tested on humans... only on lab rats.

      so in conclusion: i won't even take the covid vaccine if they're trying to force me at gun point.

    • the WHO also mutilated the definition of pandemic. before 2019 pandemic was defined as

      "“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people, posing substantial risk of harm to people"

      the last part of it was taken out after 2009, so since 2009, litterally the common cold is a "pandemic". the word means nothing anymore. people are still scared, cause it was a scary word before it was changed.

      something tells me the people who decided this knew that and planned to fuck people over with that association that is now false.

    • Show All
  • joeldalton
    No one will tolerate this bullshit into next year. It will be over whether there is a virus or not.
  • DiegoO
    If things don't go worst we will go back to normal in a 10-5y time. That I guessing 😶
  • In UK, most vulnerable get it first, not to help them as such, but to avoid NHS being overwhelmed,
  • IHateBeingaMan
    this global pandemic can sadly very easily continue well into next year
    Well this didn't age well. The vaccine is out, Germans made it.
  • OddBeMe
    Just think if everyone wore a mask. We could get a handle on it and learn more about the virus.
  • Ryfyle
    It's a Virus with a 99.95% survival rating, why is this such an issue?
    • Belgie

      Probably because your statistic is bullshit.

    • Belgie

      You're off your medication again aren't you?

  • TienShenhan
    A vaccine isn't needed. Let go of your fear
    • Anonymous

      Hard to do that with one family member currently hospitalized, and one now deceased.

    • Fear shuts down the logic center of the brain. It does you zero good

  • captain_voidwalker
    Corona will vanish like magic after nov. 3rd
    • Are you the dumbest person alive?

    • it will affect the whole decade

    • mistixs

      Yeah, it's only a big deal because of the election, and Democrats somehow managed to get the whole rest of the world in on it, too. /Sarcasm

    • Show All
  • micheal727jovanie
    Love the dark humor. Lol
  • Jamie05rhs
    Well, that sucks.
    • Anonymous

      It's reality, and reality often sucks.

    • Jamie05rhs


  • Cryptic-Game
    This virus likely will be happening in 2021 also.
  • Anonymous
    I am considered "High Risk" but I would willingly surrender, my dose, to anyone else!
    I don't feel comfortable with these, 'Fast-Tracked' and I don't want to end up like Will Smith, in "I Am Legend" with a dead world and some mutated, and crazy ones!
    NOT POSTING anything that is ANTI-VACCINE!! Just my personal opinion, and nobody has any reason to think it matters or makes sense!!
    • Anonymous

      My dad did medical research his whole life and everything he did took years, and several peer reviews, and testing to get things to pass muster. If you're talking about someone being allowed to inject something or put drugs in your system, I think you should question that fully. We've all seen the recalls and lawsuits over drugs that have caused more harm then good, so it's not crazy to say, I'm not sure about a drug you made in a few months that should have taken years.

    • Anonymous

      @myTake Owner EXACTLY! I have a Biology degree, and a Chemistry minor, so I understand a lot of what the media doesn't say, but the public reviews, when available, actually say! So many misconceptions, and misunderstandings, misinterpretations of data, or skewing it to show it is better than it is? No oversight, no regulations? Just a mad rush for 'something', without all the safeties of the PROCESS!!!

  • Anonymous
    You're wrong on so many levels - but let's start with the basics. Not every country in the world is as fucked as America when it comes to health care. Most countries have some form of universal health care. And most countries have already committed to dosing their population for free.

    100USD a time for a vaccine? Oh land of the brave, home of the stupid.
  • Anonymous
    Stfu Fauci. I'm tired of this doom and gloom bullshit. The vaccine is supposed to be available to many people in spring 2021. Most summer 2021. And we don't need the whole world. It will be unfortunately the 3rd world countries that get it last. But Once America gets it, things should or need to kick back to normal. I'm sorry, but there will literally be a FUCKING civil war if there is no normalcy by mid 2021. People will come with guns to the government buildings. No not a fraction, but millions upon millions. A country of freedom will not take it lightly. Now it's needed, but once we have things to handle this and make this virus more like the flu, then it's something that has to be lived with like the flu which we don't shut the country down for.

    That's my point, treatments are coming around the corner. I'm tired of the vaccine being pushed so much. It's needed but many don't trust it. I'm not taking it despite me having a whacky immune system. But what I will take if my doctor says it's fine is a drug treatment if I get it that would be effective and make it mild. There are not only antibody treatments, but drug like Avitapadil or rlf-100 that has shown great promise, much better than remdesivir and much much cheaper. Once those become available to people which should be before the vaccin and to general public. Then society needs to get back to normal. People need to work and fill seats at businesses and date for christs sake and fucking live life. You can fucking die in a Fucking car accident any fucking day, ONCE THERE ARE TREATMENTS EVEN IF VACCINE IS NOT AVAILABLE TO EVERY FUCKING PERSON. YOU NEED TO FUCKING LIVE LIFE!!!
  • Anonymous
    That second pic. I thought it was a pad.
  • Anonymous
    The Russians already have a vaccine.
  • Anonymous
    It will only get worse.
    • it already got worse, how much more worse could it get,?

    • Anonymous

      @NatalieKeller95 there's no bottom for the barrel. It will get worse in ways we can't imagine now.

    • like killing 6.9 billion people?

    • Show All