Omicron update?

[Gramkabir]

Does anyone have any update of Omicron? How dangerous it is? Any death rate has been generated yet?

Updates

+1 y

According to me, if the virus spread fast then it'll be less deadlier. If you think about cold virus, you'll see it spread faster but much more deadlier than sers-cov-2.

So if Omicron spread faster than there's a chance it might not be as deadlier as Delta or Delta plus.

[BCA6010]

It's more contagious but less dangerous than all previously identified variants. The people who first discovered it are unconcerned/comparing it to the common cold while the usual people are stirring hysterics.

So in Australia, the beatings will continue until the situation improves.

[Deathly_Pheonix]

It's more viral than others in the sense that it doesn't just transmit on fluid particles (like moisture from coughing), Omicron is airborne, like just breathing normally in proximity of others can transmit it. I haven't heard much else

[Gramkabir]

Then we've some breathing place to defend this virus physically...
Does vaccine work or doesn't work at all?

[Deathly_Pheonix]

The vaccine will still be effective, though I'm not sure how effective. I'm sure with the booster it will be fine, but continue making if at all possible I'd say

[Uptowngirl88]

It's another Democrat conspiracy and scare tactic in order to control everyone, inject you with more vaccines , and to destroy the economy

[DevilsAdvocator]

Update, from the UK Health Security Agency s latest figures (as of 1800 GMT on Dec. 17), there have now been a total confirmed number of 24,968 cases, since the first confirmed case in the UK three weeks ago, almost all of which have been documented to have afflicted fully vaccinated people. These have thus far resulted in a grand total of 85 hospitalizations (equating to a hospitalization rate, thus far, of 0.34%), and a grand total of 7 deaths (of people who've died WITH, not OF, Omicron, within 28 days of having been recorded as having had an Omicron infection- equating to a rolling case-fatality rate of 0.028%).

For context, if you'd sampled the same number of people (25,000) completely at random, from the general UK population, at any time in the five years between 2014 and 2019- even if the number of those you added to reach this total was exponentially increased every day throughout, over the course of 3 weeks, rather than counting them all at once from the beginning, you'd have expected 8 (/8.35) deaths in this sample group, purely on account of the 5yr average pre-COVID mortality rate. In other words, those in the UK who've definitely had Omicron, thus far, have statistically been 19% LESS likely to die than the average UK citizen.

None of these newly admitted hospital patients with Omicron (and only around half of those with other strains of COVID) were being treated primarily for Covid, and had only incidentally tested positive for it during their stays in hospital whilst being treated for other conditions. The first person in the world reported to have died with Omicron (to celebration, fanfare and jubilation from the MSM and their lockdown advocates worldwide), here in the UK, has now been confirmed by the UKHSA to have been no exception to this, and to have also been diagnosed with it in hospital (though we still have no idea what they were originally hospitalized for).

Also, over in South Africa, where Omicron's already finished the process of completely taking over from other strains, and their hospitalization figures have already peaked, the percentage of COVID cases who've been hospitalized has dropped from roughly 19% (or 12% at this same stage during their last wave, after the Delta variant's arrival) to just 1.7%, (though the proportion of COVID-positive fully vaccinated patients in South African hospitals is still up at 8.64%- which, whilst still 72% less compared to Delta, still curiously makes fully vaccinated people who've caught Omicron more than 5X as likely to get hospitalized by it than unvaccinated people are). The percentage of these patients requiring ICU treatment for Omicron has fallen from c.25% during the Delta wave to c.10% now, whilst the percentage on a ventilator has fallen from c.10% during the Delta wave to c.2.5% now. And their 7-day average COVID-related death toll's remained practically stagnant, hovering around 30 compared to 20 a month ago, in spite of their 7-day average number of new daily cases having skyrocketed more than 40-fold in that time-span.

Why might this be the case? According to a new study conducted by scientists at the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, it's believed that the mutations on the virus’ spike protein, which make it more capable to evade antibodies and infecting people (especially vaccinated people) also greatly reduces its likelihood of attacking the lungs and causing severe disease (or indeed, 'Long COVID'). This is because COVID-19 kills overwhelmingly due to 'cytokine storms'- the inflammation and immune dysregulation/over-reaction, which damages organs and causes deaths. Women are significantly less likely to experience symptoms, be hospitalized, or killed by COVID-19 infection, because progesterone has been proven to dampen these cytokine storms.

The manner in which the Omicron variant evades antibodies in order to infect people, whilst this makes it far more transmissible and infectious than any other betacoronavirus ever known (with an R0 now estimated at roughly 9-12, comparable to those of Mumps and Chickenpox), appears to also render it largely incapable of causing cytokine storms. Which if true, would in the process also render infection by the Omicron variant nothing more than a case of the 'common cold' (defined as "a viral infectious disease of the upper respiratory tract that primarily affects the respiratory mucosa of the nose, throat, sinuses, and larynx", which the overwhelming majority of Omicron infections appear to be largely limited to).

To highlight this difference; the CDC estimates that in the US, in the past ten years, the 2011-12 seasonal flu was the least severe, and 2017-18 seasonal flu was the most severe (as was also the case here in the UK). In 2011-12, in the US, the weakest flu season ever recorded, 8.7-12M (symptomatic) flu infections necessitated 4-5.6M medical visits, caused 130-190K hospitalizations (equating to a hospitalization rate of 1.4%-2.18%), and killed 11-23K people (equating to a case-fatality rate of 0.092-0.264%). And in 2017-18, there were an estimated 35.5-53M (symptomatic) flu infections, necessitating 18-27M medical visits, and causing 560K-1.1M hospitalizations (an hR of 1.06%-3.1%) along with 50-95K deaths (a CFR of 0.094-0.268%). In that same year, according to the fact-checkers's data here in the UK, widely cited as proof that "in the first year of COVID-19, six times as many life-years were lost to COVID-19 compared to those lost to flu in a bad flu season", 30,000 British people were reported to have died from flu and pneumonia, resulting in a loss of around 250,000 'life years'.

The Delta variant of COVID-19 carried a significantly higher risk of hospitalization and death compared to the Alpha variant, more than twice that of the original Wuhan variant. After taking into account the transition from the original strain to the dominance of the Alpha variant, mid-way through that first year in the UK, and crunching the numbers, we can infer that the original Wuhan variant was roughly 4.5x more dangerous than the 2018 seasonal flu was, whilst the Delta variant is roughly 9-10x more dangerous than the 2018 seasonal flu. However, the evidence thus far indicates that infection with the Omicron variant is at least 7.5 times, potentially over 11 times, less likely to hospitalize those infected with it than Delta does (or 2.2 times, if you're fully vaccinated but still get infected with it anyway); as well as being 19-28 times less likely to require ICU treatment than Delta, and reducing the risk of death to an even greater degree.

As such, whilst the Omicron variant of COVID does have a far higher and faster transmission rate than influenza A (at least 5x that of the 2018 seasonal flu, and 8x that of your typical seasonal flu), it still appears to be c.4.1-6.4 times less likely to cause hospitalization than infection by the seasonal flu does, which would only burden the health service moderately more (and potentially slightly less) than the seasonal flu did (past tense- since the flu appears to have been rendered at least half-extinct by now). And Omicron infection also appears to also be c.3.3-9.6 times LESS likely to kill you than a seasonal flu infection. So then, ask yourself- if you knew that you were 5 to 8 times MORE likely to get assaulted when you went outside from now on (similar to the increased likelihood of being a victim of street violence if you're a random male, rather than a random female), but that you were 4 to 6 times LESS likely to be injured to the extent you required hospital treatment in the event that you did, as well as being 3.3-9.6 times LESS likely to be killed, what would you do? Hide away, and refuse to ever venture outside again, ranting about how unsafe the streets are and how no-one should ever be allowed to roam them freely ever again? Or would you accept it, brave the outside world, and get on with making the most of your life?

[Gramkabir]

Such an informative info... I really appreciate your effort... It seems like Omicron Virus is less likely dangerous than Delta variant. It seems to me that virus which is faster in transmission can lesser in affecting human body... What do you think?

[jshm2]

It's pretty much blazing South Africa and Botswana. It's spreading in the USA and UK. Though it's probably a lot further than reported as a lot of previous samples from last month will need to be retested for the new variant.

Shit is getting bad in reinfections. But thankfully the vaccinated aren't dying from it in any large number. Mostly the unvaccinated are getting munched by it.

[joeldalton]

Yeah, it’s all media hype. Like everything else about covid.

[dudeinohio]

spacing. Official, but preliminary data shows Omicron spreads fast, but has milder affects.

[Gramkabir]

No death info yet to receive...