Will our democracy last for another 50 years, or will it fail and be replaced by a dictator or oligarchy?

[KelleyNice]

Washington crossing Delaware

Although the United States is not a true democracy where simple majority rules, we are a republic with a strong lean towards democracy. From a historical perspective the average lifespan of a democracy is between 200 and 250 years. Since the Declaration of Independence 1776, the United States is getting “old”… 246 years this July 4th, 2022.

In 1787 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish History Professor at the University of Edinburgh, said this about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2000 years earlier:

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.”

Typically the life-cycle of a democracy is as follows:

1. From bondage to spiritual faith
2. From spiritual faith to great courage
3. From courage to liberty
4. From liberty to abundance
5. From abundance to complacency
6. From complacency to apathy
7. From apathy to dependence
8. From dependence back into bondage

The question is, where do you think we are on this life-cycle?

[MikeInHawaii]

A good part of the population is at step six or seven. Nearly half the people in this country are dependent on a government check. That includes firefighters, trash collectors, and people who actually do provide valuable services. But, we also have multigenerational welfare recipients.

[DWornock]

We are between 7 & 8 so what remains of our democracy will not last another 50 years, more likely than not, it will fail in 20 years.

[OlderAndWiser]

The painting reminded me of a later rendition of this masterpiece:

I think we are between steps 6 and 7 in the process but hope that we can reverse the process before it is too late.

[abc3643]

First off, you need to realize that we don't live in a democracy; we live in a republic that is also a federation. Constitutionally, we are REQUIRED to live in a republic.

===
Article IV, Section 4:

The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.
===

I am not too worried because we've been hearing crap like that for 250 years.

Google "Generations: The History of America's Future" by Neil Howe and William Strauss which gave rise to "Strauss–Howe generational theory".

That said, the US could use a few laws or constitutional amendments to strengthen our system of government and its institutions insulating it from the vagarities of the various branches of government.

For instance, former US appellate judge J, Michael Luttig discussed how to avoid another January 6th.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/opinion/electoral-count-act.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DPDm8eiOMNAo6B_EGKaK5ubMc0xT2fAdRGLbkzAfV50qlfI0lpAUGOk6ezpa4kcW8zuJ7hGSQ_xY7MVrQ1tmWyZTXkeLtygey04UvDbWLvDLjU1yFyOAdmppdifA2s0SQJwbzXUbIggqkI1vsmD5l_RD0EdXPK66GuU0MiTY3AOhLM6QA2WPVbXiXTlbOf47EDeQZRCTHWXS81oDZ8uJ4HZoRhbOuoJAUgecH-nbwUFmdjSY-iDJU7TIDX_K54Jj_pkJryo1gOxNxQrFR8NA&smid=url-share

But I want to say something else - something that perhaps normal people should not hear...

Liberals may come across as all peace-loving, egalitarian, empathetic, etc., and that is all true, but the intelligent among them understand the dark side of human nature as well and will, themselves, do what is necessary for survival.

Case in point:

Scientists are generally liberal. But they recognized the possibility of the atomic bomb, developed it, and were willing to use it in WW2 so the Allies would win the war before the Germans could develop the bomb. While the Germans were defeated before the bomb, it was used in Japan to quickly end the war and prevent many more deaths later from a D-Day-like invasion of Japan.

My point in saying this is that later generations of scientists and the technically savvy will be willing to "go there" to do what's necessary to prevent evil from taking over.

[KelleyNice]

If it comes to that, let's hope so.

[monorprise]

America is more likely to fragment into many different smaller regional blocks then fall to a single dictator.

We got 50 states each of which have the capability and institutions to raise their own armies if they feel the need, they control nearly all of existing law enforcement capacity already so simply getting them to cooperate with a dictator would be tricky.

At least half of which would oppose any dictator on mere ideological grounds, the other half would only support them in the short run until it became clear they were not up for reelection, then their support would fall off as well.

So that leave us in a Civil war type situation at first, with the only difference being gone are the days when Americans would simply surrender honorably as happen in 1865.

Today a modern conflict would look more like a bloodier version of Iraq or Afghanistan and have no real end... ever. Unlike those largely disarmed and impoverished countries America is wealthy and currently already has 450+ million guns in civilian hands, with the ability to make a lot more in short order.

This is on top of the armies worth of equipment and personnel most of our States command. The reality is every president and congress knows, at the end of the day the States control the ground game, not them.

They only control the people THOU the states and that currently requires longer term systems of control like paying them off and withholding funds. Stuff the States are going to care about in the event of a short term emergency or high stakes crisis like that.

The States proved that when they refused to follow federal directions on COVID-19 in favor of their own policy.

So realistically the most persuasive president might only get about half of them to go along with such a move and only until such time it became clear this dictatorial power grab wasn't in their interest.

Regardless any president that was so persuasive would not need to even try, as they or their hand picked successor would have little trouble winning reelection.

Every president and congress knows this, which is no doubt a large part of the reason none of them have tried in the last 200+ years unlike so much of the rest of the world.

[DaveJord]

So again the United States is not a Democracy. We place a high degree of respect on democratic principals but we're are not truly a democracy. In a true democracy power is excerise directly by the people and not through representatives.

This means we would not have any separations of power. We would not need the Senate or House of Representatives to vote on bills, we could decide it all by national reverindoums or by direct popular vote. Wouldn't need a Supreme Court to rule on abortion we would just have a national reverindoum on it,, and the 51% majority would decide the issue.

In a real democracy the job of congress and the courts would then be to enforce and enact the laws of the people by popular concenus. No filibusters, or super majorities in congress a simple up or down vote, 51% being the majority, no 60 votes to pass the Senate.

In a true democracy there would be no electoral college, so enough said we aren't a democracy.

Democracy is exactly the form of government the founding fathers didn't want, be wanted they illiterate mass to believe they had. Because they believed it would lead to a form of mob rule and massive redistribution of wealth. So they created a form of government that would protect their property, wealth and ability to control government.

So no I don't think we are a democracy, but we will not be a dictatorship. One could argue that we already are a oligarchy. What do think Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Donald Trump are?

Special interests and powerful men and women have always pulled the stings of government in the United Statesvfrom the start. All the founding fathers were Oligarchs, basically.

[DaveJord]

One other piont I forgot to address we are not a true Republic either... in a true Republic you would not have the separations of power, the congress would ultimate authority on all matters... and only a elite body of voters would have the abilities to elect government officials and there would be no poplar vote on anything.

So we are closer to being a Democratic Republic if anything. But its hotly debated in academic circles if US actually qualifies as such. Becayse we have the seoeratuibs of powers, and super majorities.

We also have elements of being a Constitutional Republic, or a Federal Republic.

In a Constitutional Republic- there's a chief executive and congress sets all the rules and bind into a constitution.

In a Federal Republic- the federal government has complete soveignty over ever function of government.

But the constitution cancels out the Federal construction and states right and balance of powers cancels out the constitutional construct.

So the founding father ř really created a sophisticated and genus system of government that does not conform to any traditional definition or classification.

[Anonymous]

It is very doubtful, because of the democrat political party. It has been taken over by radical, far-left, America-hating, wannabe sociaists. (Before your start your hate replies answer this first: Do you honestly know any of these people who do not say that the American flag makes them uncomfortable? These people openly admit to hating THE USA and everything it used to stand for. The so-called "woke" crowd admires communism and socialism. They think these systems are superior to capitalism. (Again, ask any woke person, and they will agree with this). The republican party is to blame for standing by and allowing this cancer to grow. The democrat party for the last several decades has quietly infiltrated the schools. Virtually every teacher in the USA is a radical leftist. Teachers today are not concerned witu teaching math, science, or mathematics. In fact, some leftist-controlled states have passed laws that say students do not need to show proficiency in these subjects to get a High School Diploma! Instead, the teachers number one focus is on indoctrinating kids into being "woke" and pressuring as many as possable into being gay or trans. These fragile little snowflakes will be easy to control in liberals "New World Order". The democrats also control most of the media, including all of the big tech companies, Facebook, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Instagram, Snapchat, etc... The news is being censored in their favor. Opposing voises are being silenced. What is next? Look at Germany, 1933. That is where the USA is.

[Chazmatazz269]

In the grand scheme, the US is no longer a democracy by any reasonable standard. Sure, we can vote on trivial issues and elect representatives, but those issues aren’t at the core of how our government operates and those representatives are as prone to the banks and bankers as everyone else. The banks run everything and they have for decades.
That said, societally speaking, various groups of people within the US are at different stages of the progression you’ve specified. Most are on the back half though. The question really is, will the banks allow our “democracy” to fail? It’s my belief that they’ve gotten away with as much as they have exactly because they allow us to believe we exist in a democracy. Once the majority of US citizens can see the strings, they’ll have a revolution on their hands. Likely a violent one.

[humanearth]

USA will be dead in 8 years or less

The elite are pushing for a one world government and they will have no issues about killing off 70% of the worlds population to do it

Robots will do human work and the humans that are left that not of the elite will be turned into slaves.

No more property ownership, what to own a farm, a house or even a car. You won't be allowed

Internet will be heavily censorship and you will have to have a great social standards to be able to use the internet

Yeah, it going to get worse than that.

The AI robots coming out in the next few years will be far more intelligence then humans and the robots will start killing the humans

Real life terminators coming in the next 50 years

[007kingifrit]

yea i don't think the republic will last another 50 years, but maybe that's fine

democracy goes through a "maintenance phase" where the public sees the system is broken and realizes they can't fix it from within. some call it fascism, dictatorship, but i think it's just what normal people do when the system is broken and nobody is fixing it.

it's always temporary though

[KelleyNice]

Everything is temporary but temporary dictatorships last 1,000 years.

[WhiteBoyChill]

I can't think of a single dictatorship that’s lasted that long

[WhitneySnow]

@WhiteBoyChill the Roman Empire lasted a little over 500 years

[WhiteBoyChill]

@WhitneySnow yeah. I guess I was just thinking more in recent history though.

[KelleyNice]

@WhiteBoyChill The Goryeo dynasty (918–1392) later named the Joseon dynasty (1392–1910) by the powerful Goryeo military commander Yi Seong-gye AKA Korea.

[007kingifrit]

10-30 years, tops

[KelleyNice]

@WhiteBoyChill Before the Koryo or Goryeo Kingdom unified it, the Korean Peninsula went through a long "Three Kingdoms" period between about 50 BCE and 935 CE.

[007kingifrit]

@kelleynice you should only say BC and AD, not bce and ce, those last 2 are neo marxist terms designed to destroy our civilization by ripping out our roots to our history.

[KelleyNice]

@007kingifrit I am not smart enough to know if BCE & CI vs. BC & AD are right or wrong. I just copied and pasted.

[007kingifrit]

well you are smart enough and it's not complex. before christ, after death, these are all the old conventions we have relied on for thousands of years.

ce means common era and bce means before common era... what is the common era? what makes it common? it's jibberish

[KelleyNice]

@007kingifrit

[KelleyNice]

@007kingifrit Thank you for the explanation.

[hypojoe]

It won't last another 20 years thats pretty much what agenda 2030 is about use to be called agenda 21 you can download the full pdf online

[KelleyNice]

It sounds good. Actually it sounds like Democrats, "You will comply or else."

[EnglishEuropean]

American history is at an inflection point. Sometimes the course of history can be altered by something as simple as a policeman distracting a mob while representatives are led to safety. Who knows what will happen in the next 50 years, or the next 5?

[slatyb]

If the Republicans get their way, it will fail. Trump and his thugs attempted a coup in 2021, and many Republican politicians pretend that it never happened. If the red state Republicans try to impose their values in the blue states things will get very ugly.

[littlepig2002]

This, right here. There’s a valid reason why so many Americans have utter contempt for the Supreme Court and why so few feel patriotic right now.

[Anonymous]

Democracy has largely been subverted already. It's really only around still to give an appearance that the governed are giving some kind of consent. In most respects almost all western democracies are corporate oligarchies when closely examined.

Furthermore the degree to which China has subverted the west is absolutely staggering. It's basically ubiquitous.

[Adaeva]

What democracy. We are already ruled by an oligarchy. They will appease us by letting us vote because they know voting changes nothing.

[dragoblack]

We are already a capitalist oligarchy under the illusion of a democracy. Its just there's enough protections and connections set up to protect the corrupt, rich, and influential, so they dont have to put on a face anymore to lie to the public.

[WhitneySnow]

Britain’s a representative democracy and it hasn’t fallen yet

[jshm2]

You never were an actual, democracy. In fact even in the world democracy index, you sit pretty low - hence your question is moot.

[Whatever2929292]

Well... I sure hope so. It starts with people like me and you. Being politically active. Speaking at local events. Voting. Running. etc

[loveslongnails]

Somewhere between 6 and 8. Ignorance is becoming the norm.

[Tstrbrainer]

People always vote for promising leaders, right?

The survival of democracy depends on the efficiency of the leaders

[bean2k21]

America was founded on natural laws that were a gift from God. Therefore, you cannot destroy America -- you can only sin against God.