Do you think Russia will capture Kiev in 2023?

[Anonymous]

The war has been going on for almost a year. What do you think?

Yes, I do.

No, I do not.

I don't know.

[nightdrot]

No, it is not likely that Russia will capture KIev. By the same token, it is unlikely, optimists in the Western media and some in Congress notwithstanding, that Ukraine will win the war.

The historical parallel to the current Russia-Ukraine War is the Winter War of 1939-1940. With World War II raging, the Soviet Union attacked Finland expecting a quick victory. The Finns drew in the Soviet forces, dividing the Red Army columns amongst the lakes and streams of the Finnish-Soviet border area. Then the Finns counterattacked and threw the Soviets out.

In that war, the Soviets regrouped and then simply overwhelmed the Finns by sheer weight of numbers. It was only then the German invasion of Denmark and Norway in April, 1940 that caused the Soviets to halt their advance and agree to a compromise peace with adjustments to the Finnish-Soviet border favorable to Moscow.

The difference this time is that whereas the Soviet economy circa 1940 was the third largest in the world, the Russian economy now ranks 11th. (Plus the demographics of Russia are of an aging population with a declining base from which to recruit men into the armed forces.) This meaning that for Russia to undertake the gradual slow motion steamroller offensive to conquer Ukraine would be prohibitively expensive.

In military terms, it would mean leaving Russia vulnerable to other countries in the region. Not least China, which although nominally supportive of Russia in the Ukraine War is actually a historic rival of Moscow and would likely take advantage if the Russian armed forces were to engage in an all out slow motion war.

In economic terms, such a war would represent a huge strain on Russian defense spending overall. This not to mention a decline in the production of consumer goods and the essential raw materials that are the mainstay of the Russian economy. This potentially setting the stage for a Russian economic collapse.

That said, Ukraine cannot win the war either. Although the West can sustain Ukraine, the Ukrainians would have to march all the way to Moscow to defeat Russia. Short of that, the Russians can continue to feed troops into the fight and Ukrainian numbers are simply too small, even with the best equipment, to take the fight to Russia.

The result is a more or less stalemate. The Ukrainian chances for winning outright being contingent on factors outside of Kiev's control. For example, the death or overthrow of Russian President Putin might open the potential for a Ukrainian victory. Short of that, Ukraine does not have within itself the means to end the war in total victory.

The most likely outcome will be a compromise peace, but that only when both sides have fought themselves to total exhaustion at the price of other national priorities. At the moment, "compromise peace" is a dirty phrase in the West. It seeming to reward Russian aggression.

Fair enough, but international affairs are about power and national interests, not pure morality. In effect, those who argue against a compromise settlement - and it should be added that, moral preening notwithstanding, the West has an interest in neither side being defeated outright - are arguing for fighting to the last drop of someone else's blood.

To be sure, it will not be a satisfying conclusion. However, in terms of the economic and power-political dynamics, it appears, barring a serious mistake by one side or the other - and such things can never be fully ruled out - the most likely outcome.

[Matthias345]

I know that you , Westerners dream of an economic collapse of Russia through your sanctions. But the results of the sanctions are rather meager, indeed the decline of the Russian GDP is only -2.2%, which is far from the expected decline of 8.5% for the year 2022.

And the Russian economy is not expected to decline further and is expected to grow slightly with a growth of 0.3% just below the Eurozone which is 0.7 and should even exceed in 2024 the Eurozone with 2.6% economic growth, for the Eurozone it will be 1.6%.

And beyond the rather meager results of economic sanctions, the political objectives of these sanctions are a total failure.

[nightdrot]

@Matthias345 Actually, I said nothing of the kind. The Russian economy now ranks only 11th in the world, but that is sufficient. However, the war, as time wears on, is apt to have a dragging effect on other areas of the Russian economy and this could have political consequences on Russia's domestic front.

By no means was, nor did I suggest, a Russian economic collapse. However, there are factors short of a full collapse that could impact the Russian domestic political scene and that would have implications for Russian foreign policy.

International affairs is rarely black and white but is rather in the shades of gray. The real issue is, in terms of cost/benefit analysis, how far the Russian government and people will be willing to drag the war on and what opportunity costs such prolongation will entail.

[Guy13]

I do not think so and the war has never stopped. We have been at war with Russia since 1980 according to people around me. It is a form of guerilla warfare. Like cave to cave.

[Asker]

Why do the people around you say 1980?

[Guy13]

My Dad said in 1972-1979 it was hot with Russia and Iran with plane hijacking. Then Reagan went into Baklands and Poland with Special forces and fought Russians out. Syria and Iraq are battled over territory since Bush the Elder until today. The Desert Storms were about Iraq oil etc...

[BeMuse]

When did they set a war goal of taking the territory of Kiev? I haven't seen any Russian politician or general openly indicate they were trying to do that yet.

[Asker]

This suggests it: https://time.com/3259699/putin-boast-kiev-2-weeks/

[BeMuse]

Time Magazine isn't a Russian government/military communication, it is an American magazine that is owned by Marc Benioff who primarily financially contributes to Democrat candidates. That is to suggest, he believes in waging conflict against Russia and supports the politicians that execute it and the propaganda narrative that surrounds it.

[Dargil]

They will if they want to. They have the troops and equipment.

[misogynistic_pig]

Yes, Russia still has a lot to give, while Ukraine has already given everything.

[KostasKouvalis]

I don't think so. Putin already had a chance to capture Kiev and didn't. He only wants the regions that have ethnic Russians.

[Anonymous]

Yes, and Americans will finance it.

[halfroots]

I don't think so