These two polls appear to be conflicting:
DeSantis tops Trump in Iowa, ties in New Hampshire head-to-head primary: poll https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3919207-desantis-tops-trump-in-iowa-ties-in-new-hampshire-head-to-head-primary-poll/
POLITICSTrump extends lead over DeSantis in new poll of possible GOP primary field https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/2024-gop-primary-polls-trump-grows-lead-over-desantis.html
I like what Trump says he will do, but I don't believe he can be trusted to honor his campaign promises.
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It will most likely be Trump at this point. The polls themselves are dubious in their value; the real important indicator is that the groups Trump leads with are the groups that have the highest voter participation in primaries, including conservative minorities.
For the most part, policy differences between these two are negligible, and different only in semantics. The only one of noteworthy contention is that Trump refuses to acknowledge problems with the vaccines and lockdowns, while DeSantis was the first state leader to make a serious stand for individuals' choice and risk assessment, but even that is history that highlights Trump's pride rather than having a direct impact on going forward.
A more recent development is that DeSantis has gotten marginally more pro-war than Trump. I don't think this is particularly sincere, but it feeds into a major problem with him: he is not even close to being able to self-fund his campaign, and would have to ingratiate himself with a lot of hated GOP elites and industry lobbies (most notably pharma and defense) in order to stand a chance. This means that while he has been an exceptionally effective governor where he isn't under much pressure beyond what the people expect of him, it would be a different story as president, and very unlikely that he wouldn't fold on at least some things. With Trump, everyone knows what we're getting, and unfortunately, my biggest problem with him (the sycophantic trash he surrounds himself with) is something he still hasn't learned from, and no doubt the party won't commit to supporting him in a meaningful way to pass effective bills and reforms. That in turn means that anything good he does can and likely will be erased by executive order on January 21st of 2028, just like last time.
There's another factor too: the Democrats clearly want to face Trump over DeSantis. This has been a long time strategy for the Dems in which they prop up opposition candidates that they believe are easier to beat, like they effectively did with both McCain and Romney, attempted to do with Trump in 2016 and unexpectedly backfired, and nearly championed in last year's midterms in order to hold on to the Senate despite record low popularity. The reason they want Trump over DeSantis or anyone else is because they know they will have a much easier time energizing an anti-Trump base than a pro-Biden (or anyone else they've tested the waters with). In truth, they'd actually have a much easier time running against someone more flagrantly entrenched in the unpopular GOP establishment like Nikki Haley, but everyone knows that at this point, it's a race between Trump and still undeclared DeSantis, and that no Republican who doesn't pursue a a sincere America-first, return to sanity platform is going to be a serious contender.
For the first time in a long time, a candidate's foreign policy chops are a critical factor. DeSantis says the right things more often than not, but he's largely untested on the world stage. Trump on the other hand has already set the tone of being a peacemaker when possible, and doesn't hesitate to bring the biggest hammer down that he can. This is important because there's no doubt that our enemies and rivals would push the limit to see what a new president would do; they would not do that with Trump. He bombed the Russians in Syria, an Iranian general/terrorist, and authorized the use of a MOAB in Afghanistan while simultaneously sitting on at least three Nobel peace prize nominations.
Personally, I think that both DeSantis and Ramaswamy would plausibly make better presidents than Trump, but Vivek's chances are pretty slim (this cycle), and I don't see DeSantis winning without making unpalatable compromises with the party against the will of the voters, particularly in regards to the war in Ukraine and going soft on criminal Democrats in order to protect corruption within the GOP as well.