If it comes down to DeSantis and Trump, who do you believe will get the Republican nomination?

[Adaeva]

These two polls appear to be conflicting:

DeSantis tops Trump in Iowa, ties in New Hampshire head-to-head primary: poll https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3919207-desantis-tops-trump-in-iowa-ties-in-new-hampshire-head-to-head-primary-poll/

POLITICSTrump extends lead over DeSantis in new poll of possible GOP primary field https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/2024-gop-primary-polls-trump-grows-lead-over-desantis.html

I like what Trump says he will do, but I don't believe he can be trusted to honor his campaign promises.

[BCA6010]

It will most likely be Trump at this point. The polls themselves are dubious in their value; the real important indicator is that the groups Trump leads with are the groups that have the highest voter participation in primaries, including conservative minorities.

For the most part, policy differences between these two are negligible, and different only in semantics. The only one of noteworthy contention is that Trump refuses to acknowledge problems with the vaccines and lockdowns, while DeSantis was the first state leader to make a serious stand for individuals' choice and risk assessment, but even that is history that highlights Trump's pride rather than having a direct impact on going forward.

A more recent development is that DeSantis has gotten marginally more pro-war than Trump. I don't think this is particularly sincere, but it feeds into a major problem with him: he is not even close to being able to self-fund his campaign, and would have to ingratiate himself with a lot of hated GOP elites and industry lobbies (most notably pharma and defense) in order to stand a chance. This means that while he has been an exceptionally effective governor where he isn't under much pressure beyond what the people expect of him, it would be a different story as president, and very unlikely that he wouldn't fold on at least some things. With Trump, everyone knows what we're getting, and unfortunately, my biggest problem with him (the sycophantic trash he surrounds himself with) is something he still hasn't learned from, and no doubt the party won't commit to supporting him in a meaningful way to pass effective bills and reforms. That in turn means that anything good he does can and likely will be erased by executive order on January 21st of 2028, just like last time.

There's another factor too: the Democrats clearly want to face Trump over DeSantis. This has been a long time strategy for the Dems in which they prop up opposition candidates that they believe are easier to beat, like they effectively did with both McCain and Romney, attempted to do with Trump in 2016 and unexpectedly backfired, and nearly championed in last year's midterms in order to hold on to the Senate despite record low popularity. The reason they want Trump over DeSantis or anyone else is because they know they will have a much easier time energizing an anti-Trump base than a pro-Biden (or anyone else they've tested the waters with). In truth, they'd actually have a much easier time running against someone more flagrantly entrenched in the unpopular GOP establishment like Nikki Haley, but everyone knows that at this point, it's a race between Trump and still undeclared DeSantis, and that no Republican who doesn't pursue a a sincere America-first, return to sanity platform is going to be a serious contender.

For the first time in a long time, a candidate's foreign policy chops are a critical factor. DeSantis says the right things more often than not, but he's largely untested on the world stage. Trump on the other hand has already set the tone of being a peacemaker when possible, and doesn't hesitate to bring the biggest hammer down that he can. This is important because there's no doubt that our enemies and rivals would push the limit to see what a new president would do; they would not do that with Trump. He bombed the Russians in Syria, an Iranian general/terrorist, and authorized the use of a MOAB in Afghanistan while simultaneously sitting on at least three Nobel peace prize nominations.

Personally, I think that both DeSantis and Ramaswamy would plausibly make better presidents than Trump, but Vivek's chances are pretty slim (this cycle), and I don't see DeSantis winning without making unpalatable compromises with the party against the will of the voters, particularly in regards to the war in Ukraine and going soft on criminal Democrats in order to protect corruption within the GOP as well.

[Marked_Man]

Honestly, I think even though I support Trump's agenda 100%, Republicans would be stupid to nominate him instead of Desantis. He is literally toxic to 50% of the country and Desantis has done well in Florida and supports Trump policies.

[Marked_Man]

Thanks for mh ☺

[WanderingLoveWizard]

His antics are toxic to half the country, not his policies. Couldn't care less about his personality.
Voting in a guy with an already proven record of being rock solid in the oval office is not stupid
Good governor doesn't mean good president. Polis is a good governor in Colorado, but only because he wants to be president, where he can show his true colors

[Marked_Man]

@WanderingLoveWizard i agree with you, i just think that his personality has alienated too many independent voters. Look at 2020 and Biden was living in a basement the entire time.

[WanderingLoveWizard]

Lol, yeah that's a fair point

[abc3643]

I think that depends a lot on what happens to Trump legally before the election.
His issue with New York I think will be trivial and he might not get convicted on that.
His issue over the obstruction regarding the Presidential Records Act is not trivial.
His issue with Georgia over election tampering is definitely not trivial and that is serious.
His issue fomenting January 6th riots is not trivial, but he may not face charges on that nor be convicted if he did.

DeSantis is overrated and a sham. He's Ted Cruz with a less sinister look and less obvious boner-for-power than Cruz.

I think the GOP may get somebody else.

I also think that if Trump doesn't get the GOP nod, he'll run as an independent.

[Adaeva]

Unless they have impartial judge and stack the jury pool with Trump haters, Trump will not be convicted. If Trump runs as independent, the republican vote will be divided so the democrat (Biden or someone else) will win.

[abc3643]

Well, you are likely correct about the GOP vote although Liz Cheney would do well with non-MAGA GOP voters and independents.

As for a trial, judges are impartial. Being partial is readily apparent to any lawyer and would give grounds for an appeal. If the appeal is successful, then the judge is likely to face disciplinary action. If you want to understand an example of how something like that plays out, watch the Season 7 Episode 1 episode of "Law & Order" titled "Causa Mortis" which is Latin for "Cause of Death". It's a very good episode.

As for "stacking a jury pool", that's basically impossible and when you eventually go on jury duty, you'll witness what I am about to describe...

Before there arguments in a trial occur, there's the selection of the jury.

Here's how that works:

(more)

[abc3643]

The jurisdiction government randomly selects people who have not been on juries in the last few years and sends out a jury duty summons for a few dozen of them to show up at the courthouse on the morning of a particular day. This is the "jury pool" (also called "the venire"). The jury pool undergoes a brief orientation period in which the Court Clerk takes attendance, gives everyone a juror number, and then explains the basics of what is going to happen to them when they enter the courtroom. Then, the jury pool is escorted into the courtroom and sits in the gallery.

Now, comes the important part called "Voir Dire" which is French for "To see. To speak." This phase of the trial occurs before the actual trial gets underway with witnesses and such like on TV. It's basically the jury selection process in which the lawyers for both sides get to "see" and "speak" with the potential jurors to see if that person is an acceptable juror for this case.

Here's what happens: I believe the Court Clerk or Bailiff, randomly calls out a number and juror with that number enters the jury box. That juror is then asked several questions by the lawyers. When the questioning is done, the judge will ask if the juror is acceptable. If the juror is acceptable to both sides, then that person becomes a juror for that trial. Something to know: a lawyer usually has a small number of times in which they can reject a juror for no reason whatsoever. However, if a lawyer rejects a juror, there has to be a decent reason (and, often, there is) that the judge and the other side will accept. Once the examination of a juror is completed, the next juror in the jury box is examined. This continues until an adequate number of jurors were selected. (The number is the number of actual jurors for the trial plus some alternates.)

(more)

[abc3643]

Voir Dire can take a while, but, once the jury is selected, the trial starts but the other jurors remain in the gallery in case one of the jurors in the jury box is excused for some reason (and that happens such as sickness, family emergency, discovery of a conflict of interest...).

My point in teaching you about Voir Dire is that it is the process to help keep juries fair and impartial by only selecting jurors that are acceptable to all parties involved. Thus, it is almost impossible to "stack a jury".

The American Bar Association does a pretty good job explaining all of this.

The Jury Pool
www.americanbar.org/.../
Selecting a Jury
www.americanbar.org/.../

Believe it or not, juries do a pretty good job of being fair.

[msc545]

@Adaeva oh right. "If Trump is convicted, it will only be because the Judge was biased and the jury was stacked with Trump haters (not because Trump did anything wrong or illegal)."

Where have we heard this sort of bullshit pseudo-logic before?

[Avicenna]

Trump is a known quantity at the federal level. Does anyone know where deSantis actually stands on the issues most important to the primary electorate- border security, energy policy, economic policy and foreign policy (taking on the CCP and the war in Ukraine in particular)?

DeSantis is being managed by the Karl Rove establishment types and his campaign donations are not coming from small donors, they're coming from hedge funds and other Wall Street interests). That would have been enough to guarantee him the nomination in 2004 or even in 2012. Not anymore, though. To win the nomination, he has to come up with his own issues, and they have to be as important as Trump's. That's going to be very hard to do.

[Anonymous]

If a 14 year old is asking this, this is how bad the US is. You need an independent party. Both sides are as bad as each other.

[Adaeva]

When asked if we need a third party, Ron Paul said we need a second party.

[llorando]

And he's correct since DNC and RNC are both sides of the same coin.

[FeelingGroovy]

@op
Can you point to a time when an independent party ever won in America?

[FeelingGroovy]

@Adaeva

When Ron ran for the presidency, he scared the crap out of both parties. He would have been the best president of all time.

[Opinion Owner]

No but that's why I'm saying we need one

[FeelingGroovy]

@OP

If there ever was a time in history that a third party could pull off the win, it's now. Trump was impeached twice over absolutely nothing. Biden is a treasonous criminal, and the spineless Republicans haven't started impeachment hearings for him. I would vote for a third party in 2024, and I hope Trump is the third party. People need to realize that Republicans and Democrats are the same thing.

[trinibaddie]

Agree

[ChefPapiChulo]

It’s a dude

[TrueConfection]

@FeelingGroovy Ross Perot was close. He was projected to win and dropped out at the last minute with little explanation. Later, he claimed that the opposition had threatened his family and he had to withdrawal.

[TrueConfection]

Many supporters were really angry and felt they had wasted their resources. After that, little attention has been given to independents.

[FeelingGroovy]

@TrueConfection

I've seen videos of Ross, and he was brilliant. If the tolerant left doesn't like you, they will kill you.
We saw this in the recent Roe VS Wade decision. The modern left are warmongers and killers.

[TrueConfection]

@FeelingGroovy Yep

[OfDeath]

DeSantis for sure. Trump is the Democrats' ticket to victory. He was unlucky to have covid marr his presidency. If it wasn't for that, he would've won a second term but the way he handled it was his own fault. Now he has all this shit with Stormy Daniels and the election denial and January 6 thing was sheer petulance.

[LordOfThePines]

I would say Desantis. He has a better record. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, he lost the house and senate in 2018, he lost it again and the election in 2020 and his lackies he endorsed in 2022 lost more often than not.

Trump is bad for the party. Desantis is not.

[WhiteBoyChill]

Desantis is unproven for the party.

[LordOfThePines]

@WhiteBoyChill He actually won his reelection, by a landslide. He's popular with conservatives and independents. He is proven, and does not have the same proof of inadequacy that Trump now has.

[WanderingLoveWizard]

Trump is the party

[WanderingLoveWizard]

And he didn't lose in 2020

[Anonymous]

Depends. Trump would win the nomination today but he’s facing indictments in Georgia and in DC that could put him in prison, so that could clearly change. DeSantis would be a stronger candidate in a general election. I don’t think Trump is capable of winning the moderate swing voters you need to win a general election, especially if the democrats run a reasonable candidate who isn’t too far left. The soft coup attempt probably ended his electability.

[exitseven]

Trump is way ahead in the polls and he has a lot of experience. His rally in Texas had wall to wall people and he is getting wal to wall press coverage.

[msc545]

Soon he will have his cell which will have wall-to-wall walls.

[AviatorTom]

Republicans are concerned about nominating Trump... it's unlikely that he would beat Biden. I'd personally prefer to see younger candidates from both parties.

Wouldn't a Kamala Harris vs Nikki Haley race be a lot of fun?

[WhiteBoyChill]

I don’t care what the liberal media tells you. In the worst of circumstances possible in 2020, Trump only lost the election by under 40,000 votes across three states. (Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia)

[WhiteBoyChill]

And by the way Biden’s popularity has consistently sat around 40% according to virtually every pollster

[Paige90]

I will vote for whichever one is the Republican nominee but I prefer DeSantis

[WanderingLoveWizard]

The Donald has my vote, I know that much.

He's already proven to be a great president (despite what his enemies want you to think), and Desantis is kind of a prick. He's ok, but I don't trust him

[Anonymous]

At least Desatan can form a sentence.

[Agagagagaga]

I’m not sure who you’re talking about since you’re a shitlib who uses cute made up words for your political opponents.

Now let’s go Brandon! I’m crossing my fingers that he can ascend a flight of stairs without falling. 🤞

[Paige90]

As opposed to Biden and his cackling VP? Both have a total combined IQ of around 100

[trinibaddie]

True lmao!

[abc3643]

"At least Desatan can form a sentence."

I hope a prison sentence. Really, he should have been charged with violating Federal law when he pulled that stunt shipping aliens to Massachusetts. While he made a good point, his act was unlawful as it violated Title 8 U. S. Code § 1324 - Bringing in and harboring certain aliens
In particular, (a)(1)(A)(ii):

(a) Criminal penalties
(1)
(A) Any person who—
(ii) knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that an alien has come to, entered, or remains in the United States in violation of law, transports, or moves or attempts to transport or move such alien within the United States by means of transportation or otherwise, in furtherance of such violation of law;
shall be punished as provided in subparagraph (B).

[trinibaddie]

I hope neither they both extreme, maybe DeSantis bc he is younger? I don't know. If only he was born in the USA Arnold Schwarzenegger would be a great president. 😊

[FeelingGroovy]

Trump would beat DeSantis. And that's because he has a proven track record. He said he would build a wall, and he did. DeSantis should be the Veep, and then be the Prez 8 years after that.

[exitseven]

No Trump needs a VP that will balance the ticket. Maybe Nikki Haley. Or what would be a really strange choice that could work is Joe Manchin.

[WhiteBoyChill]

@exitseven I think Joe Manchin would be fantastic since he probably won’t run for Senate if I had to guess

[Dargil]

It's Trump's if he wants it. DeSantis may wait 4 years to further establish himself as a statesman.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

DeSantis. The Republican establishment knows if Trump wins the nomination it means a loss in the general election.

[WhiteBoyChill]

Hardly anybody listens to the Republican establishment anymore anyway. They’re not the ones that get the final say

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

@WhiteBoyChill: The establishment of both parties have a lot influence as they can speak on your behalf to get you massive support and political donations to run a campaign or they can turn their back on you and convince voters not to support you for various reasons.

Like it or not people can easily be influenced especially when a big force is behind it.

[WhiteBoyChill]

That’s not true at all. We don’t answer to them

[KostasKouvalis]

The rational voter, would vote for the candidate that has a chance to rule for 8 years, instead of 4, but like the terrorist guy said, "Democracy is government for the people, by the people, but the people are rerarded"

[RationalMale]

I think if Trump debates Desantis he will lose the nomination.

[call_me_scar]

Depends on how many other republicans run if it's a lot they will split the vote and it will trump who wins if other republicans sit this one out then desantis

[Drdeeznuts1132]

I'm hoping Trump gets ot. I don't know about DeSantis. I know DeSantis is good, but I like a leader with balls.

[Still-alive]

Trump still. Rons best hope for the nomination are if Trump actually does get indicted and gets convicted lol...