Do you think Iran will have a secular revelation soon? Could a secular Iran become a regional power in the Middle East?

[RyanEC]

I have been talking a an Iranian friend I met on a language learning app.

After knowing her for awhile and knowing she isn’t an Islamist I asked how her generation (she is 22) feels about religion since Iran is an Islamic theocracy.

She told me her generation cares little about religion and dislikes the current regime.

65% of Iran is under 35 so this is significant.

I think if Iran has a secular revolution and establishes a progressive government (progressive for the Middle East.) and that version of Iran becomes a regional power the Middle East will moderate.

[NamerOfStars]

I doubt it. Iran was a pretty secular country up until '53, when BP asked the CIA to overthrow their government. They had female lawyers in high heels and short (for the region, anyway) skirts. Their country WAS fairly autocratic, but was growing (socially and legally) more open and democratic. Then came the coup, a quarter century of corruption and foreign control, and then the revolution. Then, with the country in the throes of a fundamentalist rebellion, Saddam invaded, and the US (in violation of its own laws) sold weapons to both sides in an effort to keep the war going; there's a REASON so much of the country is so young. More so than any other country (with the exceptions of Iraq and possibly Vietnam), the chants of "Death to America" have been EARNED in Iran.

The young people of the country may be disgusted with the way their government runs things, but I don't think that necessarily translates to a positive attitude toward the West- I think a more stable government and society there (which is what I want, as an American who has no money or will invested in Middle Easterners hating and killing each other) will come more from social change than governmental. Yeah, that's we thought about China, but it's what we didn't think about Russia.

[RolandCuthbert]

I dunno. I mean it could be. 20 years from now, the U. S. could be some weird racist theocratic state. And Iran could be the beacon of freedom in the world.

Stranger things have happened.

[Julie4]

How will secularizing Iran change its national interests?

[RyanEC]

I think it would make it so they aren’t enemies of America and the west so they wouldn’t waste resources on state sponsored terrorism.

[Julie4]

It might change a few points, but that would be rather superficial. Napoleon summed it up when he said "a state makes the policy of its geography".

You think Saudi Arabia doesn't have good relations with the West? AND the United Arab Emirates?

I'm a great admirer of Iranian civilization, and seeing this country ruled by such a regime disgusts me, but I don't believe that secularization will fundamentally change its policies.

[RyanEC]

Well throughout history Iran has either been a major power (Achaemenid Empire) or subservient to another power (during early Muslim conquests) or in constant rivalry with another regional power to its west (Greece, Rome, Ottoman Empire)

If that rivalry with the west isn’t there and there isn’t internal tension, and regional tensions with Saudi Arabia then I think resources can be managed better.

[Avicenna]

A secular Iran would see rapid economic growth (assuming its government has a free market orientation) and would become a regional power. Iran is the large country most held back by its current regime.

[Avicenna]

But I don't see it happening anytime soon. The mullahs are a really nasty terror regime and would engage in mass killings to maintain power.

[BoopBoopBeep]

In the next 20 years I can see it happening.

[RebelinSteel]

Nope not happening they will just purge, cleanse those that want this.