Could the Iran-US war drag on for 4 or 5 years like the Russia-Ukraine war?

[Anonymous]

Trump said they paused because of the election, but the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. On top of that, the Houthis reportedly shut down Bab el-Mandeb last week too. Saudi Arabia apparently called Trump twice asking for help, but he wasn't interested. They invested $1 billion in the US during Trump’s presidency and spent a ridiculous amount of money on American weapons, only to be left hanging 😂

What I dont understand is how Saudi Arabia bought tons of F-35s and signed billion-dollar arms deals but still couldnt stop a group of Houthis fighting in sandals

Anyway, the US can now sell its own oil to the world at higher prices while Gulf countries struggle to export theirs, which helps reduce America’s trade deficit. Meanwhile, Iran’s leaders can tell their people “we’re at war, support the government” and use the conflict to stay in power

So if both sides are benefiting from the war in some way, could it continue for several years?

Updates

1 mo

i wish @strateguy632 would unblock me so i could see what he wrote 😭

[jshm2]

LOL, Russia has effectively won that war against NATO- it's just reclaiming territory now.

As for the Iran-US conflict, the USA has surrendered. But Trump is just a perfidious bastard and too shy to declare it.

The USA is out of options, out of munitions and it's Iran holding the USA up by the throat, that is keeping this thing running.

The Ansarullah (Houthis is a derogatory term used for South Yemen soldiers) shut down not just the Bab el-Mandeb, but the ports, the pipelines, as well as kicked out most of the US troops and mercenaries in the area.

Shitty American weapons were just a grift that the Israeli and American corporations got rich from. They were useless in a real fight. It's why Saudi Arabia and the UAE lost so much in so little time using American made weapons. They have put in orders for Turkish, Croatian and Russian made weapons, but it's unlikely orders can be fulfilled quickly enough.

The US doesn't make oil - it processes Canadian oil. The shitty shale oil the US uses and exports is only good for heating and manufacture. Diesel and other proper fuels are imported by the US. But right now no one is selling - hence the price going sky high.

Iran’ is more self sufficient than Israel or the USA and it's leaders are better supported than US or Israeli ones. Mainly as it's Iran that has acted in self defense against Israeli and US aggression.

In essence we are looking at the end of the USA and Israel as genocidal maniacs and wannabe hegemons. It's about whether BRICS or China alone takes the top spot.

[kinks1951]

It will until we get some intelligent leadership

[Asker]

i think Trump is a smart leader he's making money from oil for his country oil prices might be high but he's still finding a way to profit from it

[kinks1951]

He is making money for himself, the country is sinking farther in debt

[Asker]

Okay, but right now Saudi Arabia can't sell its oil because the straits are closed, and the US is selling Venezuelan oil to the world at higher prices instead. Doesn't that help the US pay down some of its debt? 🤔

[kinks1951]

Our debt is growing bigger daily

[Asker]

Bro, it'll be fine. America's debt is in dollars, right? And isn't the Federal Reserve the only central bank that can issue dollars? If I were in charge of the economy, I'd just print unlimited money and pay off the entire debt. 😂

[kinks1951]

That is part of the problem, nothing to back the money

[kinks1951]

Thanks for the mho

[FrodoSkywalker007]

The straits are not "closed", but are certainly disrupted. We are seeing levels of about half pre war. Iran is seeing no shipping though due to the blockade. Oil was at $95 last time I checked eve with disruptions.

Could it last longer? Certainly. Trump has been limited in his responses (hence "TACO" being a reply). When you refuse to go all out, it delays the outcome.

Currently, the Iranian economy is collapsing and they are seeing IRGC executed in the streets. This is particularly unique for a population that isn't armed.

Sorry to say that war machines can not effectively fight when the money is drained and leadership has been decimated or what's left sees internal conflict

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/once-an-arab-oil-embargo-victim-us-becomes-worlds-top-oil-exporter-2026-06-11/

https://m.investing.com/analysis/iran-has-oil-to-sell-but-asia-is-not-bidding-200683262?ampMode=1

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/oil-market-price-shock-has-been-relatively-muted/?amp=1

https://www.bairdmaritime.com/offshore/refining-processing/us-waiver-on-iran-oil-unlikely-to-draw-orders-from-asian-refiners-except-china

https://theconversation.com/iran-protests-2026-our-surveys-show-iranians-agree-more-on-regime-change-than-what-might-come-next-273198

BREAKING: Civil War In Iran - Armed Pro-Pahlavi Iranians Attack IRGC / Tousi TV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRyPWgmbI3U

@jshm2 is a notorious propagandist here. Ignore him. He's argued doom and gloom for months, still haven't seen that $150 oil. Just follow his posts, he's a jihadist that posts only anti western answers.

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Just to debunk one of @jshm2 claims
The UAE suffered the most hits from Iran of any country.

UAE Minister says Iran attacks are 'almost unhinged' ABC NEWS / ABC News (Australia)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf6URxI7XCw

UAE systems had a 96% success rate against Iranian attacks
This is true of nearly every gulf state nation
nypost.com/.../
www.wionews.com/.../iran-launches-missiles-toward-several-gulf-countries-which-gulf-nation-can-intercept-the-most-missiles-1772393723043

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Just for fun.
One more debunking of @jshm2
If we look at damage comparison.
The US suffered around $185 million of diplomatic losses and nearly $4 billion of equipment losses

www.militarytimes.com/.../

Iran has suffered a minimum of $218 billion of infrastructure losses (perhaps 4 times that amount if we take their compensation demands seriously) and many thousands of losses
https://www.warcosts.org/iran-destruction

This includes a 70% loss of refining capacity.
60% of its industrial output
89% of its military and nuclear infrastructure

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Furthermore, I wanted to show how poorly Iran is performing.
www.baltimoresun.com/.../
The allied nations suffered 75 aircraft losses in the Gulf War Against Iraq. They even had 9 pilots captured

Iran has shot down a couple jets, and a few dozen drones. Kuwait. has succeeded in shooting down more American jets than Iran. Even if we add all forms of damage, it's less than the Gulf War.
@jshm2

@jshm2

[Asker]

Daddy, chill 😂 Those Qatari jihadist agents disguised as Brits are gonna age you fast. You losing your hair yet?

What has led to the rampant anti western perspectives that exist in society? ↗

[FrodoSkywalker007]

Lol probably

[FreyaRed]

Saudis should never trust US and should never trust mercenaries they hired to protect their pipelines and boarder to Yemen.

The question is what did Saudis buy for those billion they invested into military? Because they appear to be helpless

[Asker]

The Saudis' problem is that they're run by brainless leaders and a broken system. Just wait until their oil runs out, Saudi Arabia will end up worse than Afghanistan.

[MrChinaski]

If it doesn't end before midterms, when political pressure is highest, then when will it? Iran's negotiating position won't be maintained forever because more pipelines can be built, but yes we are talking about years.

[Asker]

Maybe it'll end when Iran's economy completely collapses to the point where people are starving. How long that takes, who knows. The Americans seem comfortable for now.

[lightbulb27]

Yes, probably...

We need that $ interest expense goes up...

Maybe we should take over and rename Saudi Arabia to Sandusky? Get it... sand. dusky? Like in Ohio... but out there...

I know, why can't saudi arabia defend itself?

[Anonymous]

That depends. Does Trump leave office after his term is up? Does he invoke a constitutional crisis and try to remain. If he does leave does they next president continue the war? If the next president stops who says Iran will?

[Asker]

I don't think the US will stop its wars, no matter who becomes president. It has around 40 trillion dollars in debt, and unlike China, it doesn't have the manufacturing power to pay that off through production.

So what does it have to do? Go after countries with more resources, like oil, rare earths, etc., and use that to strengthen its position. Once Iran is dealt with, I think Greenland will be the next target.

Like, if the Democrats come back and just sit down peacefully without fighting anyone, how are they supposed to deal with that debt, right? In that sense, Trump is basically doing what he thinks needs to be done.

[Opinion Owner]

I agree with that.

[exitseven]

IfTrump does not decisively end this it could go on for years, He could put an end to this in a week but wants to do it peacefully. It will never happen withe these savages.

[DryGermanGuy]

If Trump wanted to do things peacefully, he should have continued with the JCPOA, which by all observers was working as designed. His incompetence, jealousy and aggression cost the United States 150+ billion dollars, with no end in sight.

[exitseven]

@DryGermanGuy The Obama deal was a joke. The Iranians were building a nuke right under his nose and he was paying for it. Saying all observers thought it was working as designed speaks more to the competency of the observers.

[DryGermanGuy]

So, Trump's plan is to replace it with a decidedly weaker deal? Wow, what a stable genius. Apart from the fact, that Iran has now even less motivation to sign any deal. So yeah, a joke indeed. I'm not laughing.
basedonfact.substack.com/.../a-comparison-of-iranian-agreements

[exitseven]

@DryGermanGuy Trump has bombed their nuke plant and has decimated their military. He has repeatedly said that Iran will never have a nuke. His actions speak for themselves. However he is tarting the whole " Iran wants a deal" crap again. This is making him look weak since it has happened many times before. It is time to end this in fact the time has already passed.

[DryGermanGuy]

There is no "their nuke plant". Iran has about 20 military production facilities and half of them are underground and not reachable without an invasion. See, that's the problem of starting an optional war without competent leadership or strategies - you simply get stuck.

[DryGermanGuy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1d-V74bqIg

[RavVid]

Agree the Saudi's could get some combat experience. They have done some bombing runs but need to do more. Some Napalm would hit the spot.

Is it true Palmolive make napalm?

[onmyradar]

of course it could, any war can rage on. Ukraine is raging on as NATO is slowly draining Russia of weapons and cash until they can't continue.

[In_Trance]

You better check your history on this. This is going on for 60 years

[Asker]

What, has the Strait of Hormuz been closed for 60 years?

[In_Trance]

No, Iran vs the US has been going on for 60 years

[msc545]

Of course it could drag on for a very long time. If we ever managed to dislodge Trump from the presidency that may change.

[loveslongnails]

It's odd that the Houthi's have weapons all of a sudden. Hmmm.

[Anonymous]

It could go on for years. A lot of money to be made from it.

[strateguy632]

i thought so too but iran is closing atm and banks. iran can't last more than a few months.

[strateguy632]

asker claimed 'Strait of Hormuz is still closed' but that is just iran lie. we escort ships out "Total Middle Eastern crude flows – through Hormuz and around it – are even more impressive: back to 98% of prewar levels, according to JPMorgan. even cnn said
"Given such a strong volume passing through the strait, it is clear Iran is losing its influence over it,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler."
edition.cnn.com/.../oil-strait-of-hormuz-iran

[Anonymous]

Not years but way longer than he said…

[NathanDavis]

TACO