The GFS computer model is repeatedly outputting runs which make what might be a tropical or "extra-tropical" cyclone or else a late season Nor'Easter. Whatever it is, it seems to have both warm core and cold core characteristics, so a "hybrid low" let's call it. It has central pressure of close to 975mb on the latest run, which is Category 1 hurricane strength on average and goes close to Newfoundland in track. I'm wondering what people will think of this if it gets named as a tropical or hybrid low pressure?
This is the kind of system which can produce 100mph gusts and perhaps 75mph sustained winds.
Updates
2 mo
I checked European model too, and it develops the storm about 12 hours later, but has 60kts or 70mph sustained winds at 87 hours out from initialization, which is 4pm on May 03, 2026.
That's awful early for a hurricane to form, but not impossible. But this is supposed to be an El Nino, it would be something really weird for a hurricane to form this early in an el nino.
That's awful early for a hurricane to form, but not impossible. But this is supposed to be an El Nino, it would be something really weird for a hurricane to form this early in an el nino.
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I'm not sure but I like weather questions! 😊
Yes it should.