This will be the first of several "MyTakes" I make debunking redundant arguments I see during the election season of the United States of America. My purpose isn't to persuade anyone's opinion on the election, candidates, OR issues, but to present a reason why an argument is "faulty", pointless, or invalid. Here is the lay-down of how this will go.
- I don't currently support any of the candidates running.
- Again, I could care less who you support: It's the reason WHY you support, or WHY you feel a certain way I'm more curious about.
- I will try to debunk an argument I see used for EACH CANDIDATE'S supporters.
For this "myTake", I'm going to debunk an argument I see used by SEVERAL Bernie Sanders supporters online.
The Argument given by many Bernie Sanders supporters: Hillary Clinton only wins "Red" states, which means she won't win the election.
Not only is this argument completely false, but it's actually invalid Why? Here are the reasons why this is a stupid, and inaccurate argument.
Reason One: Hillary Clinton isn't "only" or "mainly" winning "Red" states.
First of all, let's define what a "Red" state is. A "Red" state is simply a state which votes Republican nearly every election, AND votes Republican in big margins(This is key too). Conversely, a "Blue" state is a state which votes Democratic nearly every election, and votes Democrat in big margins. Let's take a look at the "Red" states which have voted on the Democratic side of the nomination so far.
Alabama-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976
Alaska-Has only voted for a Democrat one time since it has became part of the United States.
Arizona-Has voted for a Democrat one time since 1976.
Arkansas-Voted for Bill Clinton in the 1990's(because it's his "home state"), but other than that, extremely Republican.
Georgia-Has voted for a Democrat one time since 1984.
Idaho-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.
Kansas-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.
Louisiana-Again, voted for Clinton in the 1990's, but still heavily Republican.
Mississippi-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.
Nebraska-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.
Oklahoma-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.
South Carolina-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.
Tennessee-Also voted for Clinton in the 1990's, but went out on a limb, and voted against Democrat Al Gore, even though Tennessee was his "home" state, and still voted Republican.
Texas-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.
Utah-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.
Wyoming-Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.
Out of these states, Hillary Clinton has won nine of them, while Bernie Sanders has won seven of them. If Bernie Sanders keeps dominating in rural states which are predominately Caucasian, OR states with a small percentage of African-Americans, and Latinos, Bernie Sanders will actually win more "Red" states than Hillary Clinton, with the additions of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Kentucky(All which I predict Bernie will win).
Let's look at the key states for victory in the General Election: The "Purple" or "Swing-States." These are states which can go either way. Hillary Clinton has won seven out of the nine which have voted on the Democratic side so far(Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia).
Hillary Clinton has also won Illinois, and Massachusetts-Two "Blue" states.
So if anything, Hillary Clinton is winning much more important states for the General Election than Bernie Sanders is. She is dominating "Red" states, and "Purple" states-And has also snagged two "Blue" states so far. I don't see how this proves she "mainly" or "only" wins Republican stronghold states.
Reason Two: The voters in the Democratic Primaries probably aren't Republicans, regardless of which state is voting.
Let's look at Alaska-The "Reddest" of "Red" states. As I mentioned, it has only voted for a Democrat ONE time in its history. Just once. And it voted for Lyndon B. Johnson, who was the most Conservative Democrat elected in history. It votes Republican in ridiculous 70 percent to 30 percent margins in nearly every General Election. This can be said about many states. However, even in a state such as this, there are still a block of registered Democrats, and independent voters.
With this being said, in the DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION SEASON-not the General Election-There won't be too many Republicans voting in the Primaries, and Caucuses. This may seem like common sense, but many numb-skulled Bernie Sanders supporters don't realize this.
Some contests are CLOSED, meaning solely registered Democrats can vote on the Democratic side, and solely registered Republicans can vote on the Republican side. Some are open, meaning ANYONE can vote in ANY of the contests on EITHER side. Some contests are Semi-closed, meaning Republicans have to vote in the Republican, Democrats have to vote in the Democrat one, and independents can't vote at all(With rare exceptions).
At it stands, about 80 to 90 percent of the people voting on the Democratic side are either Democrats, or independent voters-And about 80 to 90 percent of the people voting on the Republican side of the nomination are Republican, or independent voters-Can we get a big DUH?
So, even though Hillary Clinton has dominated Conservative states, she's clearly not dominating Conservative voters-She's actually dominating registered Democrats in almost every state that votes, while Bernie Sanders is winning independent voters. I know many of the southern states which have voted have Latino, and African-American voters who make up a LARGE part of Democratic voters-Is this secret racism by the Sanders campaign?
Reason Three: If you can win states which usually vote the opposite of the political party you belong to, this is a stronger General Election argument.
The funny thing is, many of the Bernie supporters are so ignorant, they don't realize that Bernie Sanders is making a stronger election case by winning more "Red" states than Hillary Clinton-And for some reason, many of them don't even realize he is winning Republican states.
Let's say you're a Democrat during the Primary season. Let's say you dominate "Blue" states during the nomination, but fail among "Red" states. This happened to someone back in 2008-Ironically, that someone was Hillary Clinton, who lost the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama. Even if Hillary Clinton won the Nomination, that doesn't mean she would have won the Nomination. A Democrat is going to win "Blue" states regardless!
Back in the 2008 nomination, Obama dominated "Red" states. At the time, here were the "Red" states, and here are the ones he won: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. A grand total of 15 "Red" states-As a matter of fact, the only Republican states Hillary Clinton won at the time were Indiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
As many of us know, Barack Obama won the elections in 2008, and 2012-Why? Because amazingly enough, he was able to turn "Red" states blue! THIS is why this is a STRONGER ELECTION ARGUMENT, because by showing huge popularity in a conservative state, there is a possibility you can persuade voters in those states, and make them Democratic. This is exactly what Obama did with Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. This is exactly what Bill Clinton did in his two elections he won. This is exactly what Ronald Reagan did in the two elections he dominated; As well as Richard Nixon, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Jimmy Carter. Thanks to Obama, states like Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina are now "Swing-States."
The bottom line is: We don't know how a state will vote until it votes, regardless of voting patterns. Who knows, we could see some states turn the other side this election.
Reason Four: Even if a Democrat loses many of the "Red" states they won during the Nomination process, this doesn't mean they will lose the election. The same can be said about Republicans in "Blue" states.
Let's just say Hillary Clinton wins the Nomination. Let's say she gets to the General Election, and loses every "Red" state she won during the Nomination season. This doesn't mean she will lose the General Election. At all. Not even close.
In the 2008(and 2012) General Elections, Obama lost 13 out of the 15 "Red" states he won during the Nomination process. However, he still won because he won virtually every "Swing-State", and was able to turn "Red" states "Blue"(As I just mentioned).
As I said in my first reason on this "MyTake", the key to winning an election for anyone is winning those "Purple" states. At the moment, the key "Swing-States" are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia. Hillary Clinton has won seven out of nine of the ones which have voted-And if voting patterns continue, she will dominate Latinos, and take the state of New Mexico as well(I do think Bernie will take Indiana).
As it stands, Hillary Clinton is winning the key states to the election. She doesn't need any of the "Red" states if she wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, and New Mexico. I know Latinos, and African-American voters are CRUCIAL for turning Republican states Democratic.
Reason Five: Regardless of what states you win, who you win, how popular you are, or how you're performing, this is the Primary Season, not the General Election.
This is the most important reason why this argument is stupid.
Even by the time this whole voting process is over on June 14th, 2016, this is still about four months before the General Election. There are many things which can change. If you don't believe me, look at history-History tells us things change.
For all we know, many Republicans may be drawn to the Democrats, or vice versa. We could see an election map similar to Ronald Reagan's in 1984-Or an election map similar to George W. Bush's "nail-biter" in 2000.
WE DON'T KNOW ANYTHING! It's still six months until the General Election, I say we wait, and see what happens.
Tell me what you think in the comments. I dare you to effectively use this ridiculous argument.
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