My Opinion on Fear Mongering and Worst Case Scenario

[ADFSDF1996]

Ever since 59 tomahawks were sent to Syria, the world went berserk. A bunch of fear mongering just spread like a plague. Most of the people who think "WWIII is imminent" need to realize that this isn't the first occasion where WWIII rumors were spread.

1.) This is not the first close call to war between US and Russia

When people think of WWIII they think it's going to be US vs Russia but if it's only two countries then it can't be called a "World War" it would probably be called the "Russo-American war". However, even though America and Russia never went one on one, there were some close calls. Such as the Berlin crisis of 1961 in which American and Soviet tanks had a stand off in Berlin Germany(pictured below). If you think those 59 tomahawks put a dent into American and Russian relations, it pales in comparison to the Berlin crisis of 1961.

2.) Exaggeration and fear mongering

Whether you hear it from random people in public, social media, friends or family; there tends to be a lot of exaggerations going on. This is what is known as fear mongering, people make things seem worse than they really are. You'll often hear people say "Aghhh! WWIII is imminent!". People will start to feel scared, depressed, worried. It's understandable to feel like this because of what happened in Syria but it's also exaggerated. There's all these "WWIII" memes like the one pictured below popping up on social media, you have people saying how scared they are. This is all a result of fear mongering used by those that are terrified to scare the masses.

3.) Military draft scenarios

If a major war that requires a lot of soldiers occurrs, there is a chance that a draft might occur. How would the draft work, nobody knows but it's almost certain that it would work in the same way it worked for the Vietnam war but with a few modifications https://www.google.com/amp/www.scpr.org/news/2015/10/13/54994/how-a-modern-military-draft-would-work.amp . Obviously not every male that gets the draft letter will be drafted, because every draftee will go through a physical and psychological evaluation.https://www.thebalance.com/military-medical-standards-for-enlistment-and-commission-3354046 If the draftee fails one or both then they'll get lucky and be sent home.

Draft scenario 1: All 18-26 year old males who signed up for selective service get letters in their mail. These men accept their fate and go to the selective service office. They go through the physical and psychological evaluations. Those that don't pass or one or both get lucky and are allowed to go home. The rest who do pass both evaluations get ready to be deployed if they get picked from the lotto.

Draft scenario 2: Same as above, men 18-26 years of age, physical, psychological evaluations but a lot of the men have a low morale. Others who predicted the return of the draft took precautions by joining the national guard months before the draft went into effect. The draft becomes a very unpopular policy since even before the draft went into full effect, a lot of people panicked and showed opposition to the draft. So in order to compensate, the draft is modified to also include females between the ages of 18-26. This catches many women by surprise, so out of shock, they go to the selective service office to join the males who are in the process of getting drafted.

Draft scenario 3: From the very start of the draft, both men and women between the ages of 18-26 are required to go to the selective services office, they get the physical and psychological evaluation, if they pass both they drafted if not, then they go home.

Draft scenario 4: same as scenario 3, Men and women between ages of 18-25 go to the selective services office, psychological and physical evaluation. However, due to the negative reaction to the war and the draft, many men and women join the national guard or coast guard before hand, some purposely injure themselves, others move to different houses without updating their addresses. In a act of desperation, the draft is cancelled and instead of forcing young men and women to enlist, it becomes voluntary. The voluntary status may change the way people view the scenario which will get just enough male and female volunteers for the conflict.

Draft scenario 5: There is no draft, a lot of people worry about WWIII and the draft. A lot of young people specifically late teenage males start to show opposition towards the draft with peaceful protests before the draft is even put into effect. Not only that but due to how the phrase "WWIII" causes panic on social media. It would make the draft seem like a bad idea. Too much opposition to a draft can make a active draft cause instability. So instead, the volunteer system stars producing even more advertisements to encourage people to enlist in the army. The advertisements would be everywhere; social media, TV, Newspapers, posters, billboards, buses, radio, etc. the advertising would encourage people to enlist in the army.

Draft scenario 6: No draft, because of how much military technological innovations have been introduced since the end of WWII. Nowadays there are drones, cyber warfare, UGVs etc that could make drafts unnecessary.

4.) Why WWIII is unlikely

A world war with today's technology would have a major impact on our planet. Every country is aware of the dangers a war of that magnitude could bring to humanity. No country wants to be remembered as the country to have started WWIII. Most people don't want war, since we know how horrible wars can be. Why would people fight over a piece of dessert? It would not make that much sense, there is not mich to gain from a war over a piece of dessert. Some think WWIII won't happen in the Middle East but in East Asia. People who think that assume that China and North Korea are very close but in reality China and North Korea have their differences. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/790513/China-North-Korea-America-whose-side-Chinese-how-Beijing-act-US-Donald-Trump/amp

5.) Hypothetical WWIII

God forbid WWIII from happening but if this worst case scenario does occur, it's probably going to be shorter than the previous World wars as a result of the new warfare and military technology but the devastation would be so catastrophic that it could alter human civilization.

6.) People itching for a fight

Of course, there are those bad apples that just want a war to happen, they are people who think war is some kind of "rite of passage" or they think war is some kind of video game. Well if those people like real life conflict then they should enlist. Clearly these people are naive, they think war is a good thing, well it's not. I'm not a soldier but even though I have no military experience, I know that war is sad and horrifying. There is nothing good about it.

War seems sweet to those that have never fought-Jess Rothenberg

7.) Overall

I don't think humanity is on the brink of WWIII but there is some tension when it comes to relations between nations. As long as one country doesn't mess up in it's politics, WWIII won't get closer to becoming a reality. It might take a few months for tensions to be eased but eventually people will start to relax and realize that it was all fear mongering. Most people are against war as it can be seen when they express their disapproval on social media. As for the draft, a lot of young people have been voicing their disapproval for the draft on social media. https://www.dailydot.com/unclick/world-war-3-memes-draft/ even though there has been no sign of selective service being put into effect. However, I don't think people should be too worried about WWIII being around the corner, people just need to take it easy with the fear mongering.

[Mary_June]

Well with everything that's been going on, I'm going to summarize my opinion.

Trump made fools of Assad and Putin and scared North Korea shitless. We know now the 2nd most powerful nation under Putin's rule couldn't back up Syria from the missile strike. Assad now, clearly has been off the radar in terms of action since he's got nothing he can do. North Korea is a weak nation. They're the underdogs, a missile they're making that won't be ready for another TWO years. In just three MONTHS, Trump has shown the world the U. S means business. We're not chickens the way Obama made us look like.

If WWlll does happen, everyone's going to steer clear of the U. S.

[NerdInDenial]

The 59 missiles was a very expensive fireworks show. North Korea always goes around and mouthing off. Before a draft, there's also the reserve forces. The scenario that I see an implementation of the draft would be a total war scenario where there is an invasion.

[madhatters4]

fear mongering is a tool of the far right and left. i think they believe in order to other throw the status quo they sort of always push the notion of some insane war or revolution

i frankly have heard very little of this stuff because i don't listen to those perspectives because i know every act in the world will be "WWIII is coming".

most of the world has supported the US air strike, at least politically. russia hasn't hasn't asserted any position that they are going to respond likewise or any other military action against the US. They know it would be a losing battle to go to war in defense of a regime that has committed the types of human rights violations Syria has... but they can push through diplomacy the notion that the US is overstepping it's ground, which is how things should work.

[JudgmentDay]

People can just stand up and refuse to join any questionable war even if they did get drafted just like how Muhammad Ali did when he had refused to become inducted for the Vietnam war, .

However these were the only consequences he faced, not implying everyone would want to go through what he did:

His boxing license was suspended by the state of New York.

He was convicted of draft evasion on June 20 and sentenced to five years in prison and a $10,000 fine.

However, he paid a bond and remained free while the verdict was being appealed.

And he actually NEVER served those 5 years in prison, since he was able to pay them those fines and penalties, so as you can see if you have the financial resources, you can actually be bailed out of conscription service.

But I don't know how different the consequences will be today if people stood up and said I absolute will not obey and fight in a war over in a foreign land.

At least I don't have to worry about being on the priority list even if it did happen since I'm not actually "19" years old but rather in my mid-30s. But for those that are 18-25 or 26, they should always reconsider and not become intimidated by the authorities, because if Ali can refuse to fight a questionable war, then so can anybody else that is willing to question, and willing to doubt why they should fight in a war going overseas, when they had not willingly signed up and had join the military "voluntarily" in the very first place.

[JudgmentDay]

@ADFSDF1996 perhaps they might become desperate to fill quotas, and if it ever came to that they might ignore, lower and change many of the minimum requirements that deemed someone is fit and qualified to be drafted

Sometimes, there might be desperate times and desperate measures such as for war, and you never know for certain, only those in the, the "ruling class" knows for certain and are in control of what's going to happen with it, should there ever even be a draft.

But like I said, don't worry about it, it's beyond your control and as well as mines. Only deal with it after it has happened and is reality, and I mean if Muhammad Ali said NO, then anybody, including you can also say NO, that you will absolutely won't obey because you do not agree with the war and to fight overseas in a foreign land, and you have MORE than enough proof to show that you are unfit and unqualified to be drafted due to your health conditions. But if they tried to waive it or anything is what I meant.

[guysaskgirls555]

syria isn't just dessert. There is a giant pipeline that can provide oil to our countries for 400 years. did you also think iraq was just a dessert? oh, and just because this has been happening for a while does not mean it won't. Who said the war has to start right after this? you are right, other countries know the stake of wars, but they also have their limits of how much the west will do to them. there will be one day, when the world has had enough of the west and will take action.

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 The whole damn thing had to do with the debts and financial crisis. The US is unwilling to leave Syria alone because they know if they do, then the petrodollar system will end, they need it in place or it will become a total economic disaster. The pipeline dispute is what caused the conflicts there in the first place. Because Assad wanted to run a natural gas pipeline eastward to Iran and Iraq INSTEAD OF Qatar, Saudia Arabia, Turkey and Europe. And if that had became a reality, then Iran would be able to export their to European markets without having to pass through any of Washington’s allies and that would significantly strengthen Iran’s position while reducing the U. S. government’s leverage. If this were to happen, Iran would be able to continue to sell and trade their oil and NOT ACCEPT the US dollar for any of those transactions which would really cause serious problems for the petrodollar, thus they'll never let it go.

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 as long as the US is unwilling to allow the petrodollar system to end because they are aware of the serious economic consequences, then these proxy wars are going to continue. They could let it go and let the dollar fall while the rest of the world continue on it's own, but they aren't willing to. Because they really don't have any alternatives or solution to that massive amounts of trillions of dollars of debts in which they know they can never pay back, at least not completely. The petrodollar system is the only thing left holding the dollar and the US economy together despite the massive amounts of debts accumulated over the course of the last 4 decades, ever since President Richard Nixon announced that the Gold backing of the US dollar is officially over on August 15, 1971.

[guysaskgirls555]

@JudgmentDay YEP you hit the nail on the head! its sad that the west has to start wars when they see others doing good. they dont depend on us or need our help like we make it seem, rather we depend on them. The same thing happened with ghadaffi when he wanted to make the gold dinar in africa which would turn the game around entirely.

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555

It went in this order. US accumulated lots of debts since because of the costs for the Vietnam War. In the early 70s after the Arab crisis happened with the oil embargoes OPEC basically tripled the price of oil to the Western world and at that time America realized that they were vulnerable because they were importing about 70% of all the oil consumed. The debts factored into ending the gold standard for the US dollar. Nixon had to act fast, because at that point money became entirely debt-based and they need something to ensure that the dollar will have a demand or it will go into hyperinflation quickly. Then he sent his secretary of state Henry Kissinger at the time to go to Saudi Arabia to make a very critical and important arrangement. The offer Kissinger had given to King Faisal of Saudi Arabia was so simple. That the US would guaranteed that the House of Saud would remain in power, be given military protection from their neighbors,

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 That the US would guaranteed that the House of Saud would remain in power, be given military protection from their neighbors, in which at the time Saudi Arabia was most concerned with Israel. In exchange all they had to agree with are two very simple terms sell and trade their oil by ONLY accepting the US dollar as payments, exclusively, some other nation that want to buy from them have to obtain dollars first or they can't buy oil from Saudi Arabia. And the other agreement was that they would be open to investing their surplus oil proceeds in U. S. debt securities. Unlike how before when foreign nations gladly held U. S. debt securities, as they were denominated in gold-backed U. S. dollars.

King Faisal accepted and this was the very beginning of the establishment of that petrodollar system. It eventually expanded to all of the countries that are part of OPEC, in which Iraq, Libya, and Iran are also part of. The system was find and everybody was on the same page

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 everybody part of OPEC stayed on the same page for a very long time, everybody was good and fine with this system. Fast forward to the early 90s, the Gulf War happened, shit happened. Those events eventually lead to Saddam Hussein deciding to NEVER ACCEPT the US Dollar again for ANY of Iraq's oil transactions, shortly some time after the new Euro currency came into existence. We all know how that all turned out. 9/11 Terrorist Attacks happened, although I won't go into that. Thus eventually the Invasion of Iraq followed in 2003. After Iraq was attacked because of Saddam's geopolitical defiance to the petrodollar system, and he was the first to defy this system, once the oil fields are back in US control they change it back to ONLY accepting US dollars for Iraq's oil transactions and never mentioned any of this. (Secret) Mission Accomplished, right? Unfortunately, NO. It didn't end there. Because Iran knew the real reason behind it also and they also had made the same

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 Iran had also made the same geopolitical decision of, nah, we want to raise the price of my oil, we also want to trade and sell our oil for Euros from now on and NEVER ACCEPT the US dollar for oil transactions. This time it's harder for US and the west to invade and attack Iran directly, and because they already made huge sacrifices, financial or otherwise for financing the Iraq War. Instead eventually Iran got hit hard with economic sanctions. Guess that should do the trick and this whole thing should be over right? Wrong again. Gaddafi of Libya, yes he tried to create a new currency that could be used in all of Africa just like the Euro is to Europe, the Gold Dinar would be a new type of currency completely on the Gold standard. While at the same time he did mention the same thing, he also do not want to accept the US dollar for Libya's oil transactions and would prefer to ONLY accept his own new currency as payment instead. This is completely unacceptable to

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 it's completely unacceptable to the west, France in particular. They know that if Gaddafi had succeeded many currencies in the world would be severely threatened and lose their value quickly since almost none of them use the gold standard anymore. They can't allow him to succeed and had to stop him at all costs. And then they thought everything should be fine to protect the Petrodollar system, again they were wrong, because of the natural gas pipeline deal. Because Syria is Iran's closest ally due to both countries' governments are of the same Muslim faction, Shi'a, Syria rejected Qatar's proposal to run the pipeline from them to Saudi Arabia, through Syria, then Turkey and into Europe, and Assad would rather help their Shi'a allies instead which are Iraq and Iran. This pissed off all of the Sunni Muslim neighboring countries and at the same time the Petrodollar is once again threatened.

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 If I recalled correctly, if the pipelines situation had gone the way originally then that would hurt Russia economically, as European nations wouldn't need to rely on Russian oil exports if that were to happen, thus they have economic interests, the other is because Syria had always been their ally since the Cold War, and I remember they also have military strategic interests there because they wanted to set up a Naval base there or something, but the most important one is the pipeline dispute that if it gone through one way or another either originally or the way Assad preferred it, it would hurt either the Petrodollar system, OR it would hurt Russia somehow economically so now it's an ongoing proxy war in an ongoing cold war that's not going to end anytime soon. If thing get out of hand then the worst case scenario happens where it becomes a hot war between US and Russia, all of NATO, Iran, etc. If it ever gets to that point things are going to worse than they now.

[guysaskgirls555]

@JudgmentDay yep it would hurt russia. I think 40% of their income comes from that pipeline. in your opinion, what is the only way to stop all of this?

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 by waking up the masses as much as possible is the only way we can do something and refusing to blindly follow and obey those in power. Refusing to blindly just agree to something like a draft, should there every be one at any point. I expect Most won't. One of the authors of those videos that explains the whole Syrian War crisis call for a Revolution.

But realistically I can't see it happen, and even then I worry about it if it ever were to happen, because a revolution can cause an even bigger fucking mess afterwards. We can see that pattern and confirm it in history.

"Without clear objectives, chaos usually sets in soon after the old regime falls, and then in the power vacuum that is created a tyrant rises to bring order. As a result the systems that follow revolutions are often just as totalitarian or more totalitarian than those that they replace."

The only problem is if people aren't willing to question and doubt, and merely just obey as their told.

[JudgmentDay]

@guysaskgirls555 *they're*

Because once somebody starts questioning and doubting those that are in power, they might start to look deeper as to if there is something they are intentionally keeping from us and not letting us know as to what the underlying reasons or motives are. Although we both understand that by now and what the consequences are as to why NEITHER superpower are willing to step back and back down with the whole situation in Syria, and what the stakes are, too many people do not get it. But whom are the ones TRULY responsible for this entire mess? Nobody ever questioned nor doubted that? And if someone ever brought it up, mentioned it, questioned it or spoke out they'll be seen as paranoid, delusional, or even some political dissident.

Honestly, the way I see it, the final outcome of what will happen is entirely beyond our control. Can BOTH of the superpowers come to some kind of agreement and work things out instead of getting to the point of no return? We don't know

[John_Doesnt]

Isn't it usually conservatives who are fear mongering about wars from another nation?

[ADFSDF1996]

I think it's both sides.

[John_Doesnt]

conservatives start wars, liberals end them.

[ADFSDF1996]

I guess it's a matter of perspective and the people involved, recently it was liberals who were itching for a fight.

[I-am-a-nobody]

@John_Doesnt
"conservatives start wars, liberals end them."

Really?
Korea?
Vietnam?

[John_Doesnt]

@I-am-a-nobody Afghanistan, Iraq; yes.

[I-am-a-nobody]

@John_Doesnt
Actually we went into Iraq and had it somewhat straightened out until Obama thought pulling out and letting ISIS take over was a better idea. Probably did the same in Afghanistan, too.

Oh yeah and MacArthur wanted to take over North Korea and actually win a war, but Truman didn't like that idea. Kind of haunting us now isn't it?

[John_Doesnt]

@I-am-a-nobody we went to Iraq because the idiot that conservatives voted for thought they had WMD's. They did not, which is why Obama pulled them out.
They posed no threat and still pose no threat to the US.

[I-am-a-nobody]

@John_Doesnt
Who thought they had WMD's?
Was it just Bush?
How did Hillary vote on the war?
How did just about all the Democrats vote on the war?
Do we know for a certifiable fact that there were no WMD's?
Where did Syria get chemical weapons?

[John_Doesnt]

@I-am-a-nobody it's not my stupid war. It was a conservative war.

[I-am-a-nobody]

@John_Doesnt
Yeah, it was a conservative war, that's why, Clinton, Reid, Biden, Kerry, Dodd, Feinstein, Schumer and 70 of their other right wing Senate colleagues voted for it.

americablog.com/.../...te-why-you-should-care.html

[John_Doesnt]

@I-am-a-nobody war never changes, it's supported by idiot conservatives who think the terrorists are everywhere.
You support this dumb ass war that was just started by Drumpf.

[I-am-a-nobody]

@John_Doesnt
What war?
At least if Trump drew a line in the sand, people might actually believe him (versus Obama's "line" in the sand).

[John_Doesnt]

@I-am-a-nobody the war he started in Syria less than a week ago, pay attention to the news.

[I-am-a-nobody]

@John_Doesnt
Really, how many casualties has the US had since then?

[John_Doesnt]

@I-am-a-nobody it's only been a week. And number of casualties doesn't have anything to do with it being a war.
I'm sure the casualties will pile on eventually. A bunch of people are gonna die pointlessly because of how stupid middle American voters are.

[Iraqveteran666]

The draft scenario is unlikely. The first draft in an emergency will be veterans just like during Korea when many ww2 veterans were called upon again. The US military has a large pool of military veterans that are no longer currently in the military.

[jakeofalltrades]

I agree with you but I think if there was a draft it should scenario 3. women are now involved in front line combat, they are always whining about equal rights so they should be included in any draft we have