So a YouTuber by the name of Alyssa Ruby decided to go on Tinder for the first time.
She wanted to test the difference between an ugly girl’s experience on the app and a pretty girl’s experience on the app. The way she decided to do this was to try her best to look ugly in one profile and then try her best to look pretty in the other profile and compare which got more matches with the same amount of swipes.
Here’s the video:
So here’s the quick summary. The ugly profile got more matches.
I love this result.
The reason I love it is it supports my theory that the 80/20 theory where 20% of guys are getting 80% of girls is wrong.
I also love that she seems kinda offended and hurt at realizing that just maybe guys are just swiping on anything with boobs. And that’s exactly what I think is going on.
Tinder data shows, unanimously, that women get way more likes and much higher match ratios than men. And that women swipe right way less frequently than men. And by way more likes I really mean way more. They get somewhere between 4-10x as many matches per swipe than men. Combine this with statistics that male sexlessness for men under 30 is skyrocketing exponentially with female sexlessness under age 30 remaining constant you get the 80/20 theory that somehow 20% of guys must be having sex with 80% of all women. But I’m no longer convinced. Why?
Two reasons. One, hot guys only get at most a 25% match ratio on the app. And it’s probably somewhere between 15%-25%. Average guys get about a 1% match ratio on the app. Each hot guy matches with different women. Not the same ones on every profile. But the same cannot be said for women. They’ll all get liked by the same men regardless of who the girl is.
And two, and this is what made me sure I was right, when the same girl made an ugly profile and a pretty profile the ugly profile got more matches than the pretty profile in the same number of swipes for each.
All this suggests that rather than a few guys getting all the girls, all the guys are swiping indiscriminately at all the same girls above a certain minimum threshold that probably only requires one not be overweight, have boobs and not be dead.
Thus, women can actually all have exactly the same men like them all at the same time. Effectively making it as if the swiping process never happened! Think about it. Say we had a bag of colored ping pong balls and we wanted people to choose the color ball they wanted by looking at cue cards with photos of the available balls. They can either like or dislike the cue card to save their preference. Then the ping pong balls can choose among the potential people by seeing photos of the available people on cue cards. But their choices haven’t been narrowed down at all cause all the people all chose all the ping pong balls.
So anyway, the ping pong balls don’t choose like the other group. They each pick different people, with the occasional accidental overlaps spread out somewhat randomly.
Each person is chosen by very few ping pong balls, if any at all. While all the ping pong balls are all chosen by tons of people. And yet, no particular person is getting all the ping pong balls. That’s because all that happened was all the people in their end chose all the same ping pong balls in the beginning. Literally makes no difference.
The people the ping pong balls choose are distributed somewhat randomly with occasional small overlap. And also has nothing to do with the way that people all chose all the ping pong balls.
I believe this is exactly what’s going on with Tinder. Girls have a lot of casual sex, but they don’t have that much. More than guys? Yeah. But one girl sleeping with with the entire male Tinder population, or the entire hot guy male Tinder population? Nah. I don’t think so.
Think about it. A girl with 700 matches could have sex with 700 guys. But how often does that happen? (Read: like almost never). How many matches do hot guys get when fake profiles are tested? 15-25%, not 80%. Even if all the girls of that 15-25% fuck him, and maybe they do, that’s a far cry from 80% of all women going after 20% of all men. More like 15-25% of the available women accidentally overlapped with each other cause’ this one guy was widely appealing in that way.
It could be that for any and all overlap, it happens always with a hot guy. Sure, but does that mean 80% of women are going after 20% of men?! Well, given make sexlessness is 30% this year for men below 30 and 18% this year for women below age 30, it is possible that 12% of women’s choices are a overlapped randomly across 20% of men. But that’s still not the same thing as saying that 80% of women want 20% of men. In which case 78% of women are sexing 70% of men. That makes much more sense.
Again, more evidence to suggest that the 80/20 rule does not apply.
Can 25% add up really fast? Yeah. Take 1,000 swipes and you get 250 matches. Most men will never have sex with 250 girls. But maybe a hot guy could. Sure. But 800 girls out of 1,000 swipes?!? Nah. Not happening. Definitely not 80%.
Girls going after 20% of guys?!? 200 men out of 1,000 swipes (some girls maybe, yes). Most girls?!? No. I don’t think so. Many girls tell me they are either in the 10-20 range, or the 20-40 range. Rarely more than that. We’re they all super hot guys? No.
When asked, most people with high partner counts (20+) responded in a poll that the majority of their sexual partners were average or below in looks. Again, more evidence to debunk the 80/20 myth.
I just don’t see it adding up or playing out. The only possible way it could make any sense is if the same guy gets a bunch of virgins. Then, maybe. And that might actually happen irl. But I thought most girls lose virginity in relationships. Which makes it very hard to pull something like this unless the guy was a serial cheater — which could very well be.
But outside the virgin hypothetical I don’t see it being a possibility.
Kinda terse and whatnot but there ya go. I will be testing four profiles in the future. One hot guy, one average guy, one hit girl and one average girl and all do the same number of swipes on all of them and compare the results. I need to do it for science! Stay tuned.