If Tariffs are so bad, why is the Consumer Price Index so low?

[AviatorTom]

Inflation in the US was only 0.1% in May 2025, the lowest it's been since mid-2023, as shown in the graph, depicting monthly changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Increased tariffs have been implemented, yet they seem to have little effect on the CPI, despite what many economists have projected.

Why do you think that is?

This story is reported by CNN here...

U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected

[DrPepper12]

Ok, here we go...

Key Reasons Not to Use CPI as an Inflation Measure

Substitution Bias

CPI assumes consumers buy the same basket of goods over time, ignoring that people often switch to cheaper alternatives when prices rise, which can overstate actual inflation.

Quality and New Goods Bias

CPI struggles to account for improvements in product quality or the introduction of new goods. When goods get better or new, more valuable products are introduced, CPI may overstate inflation because it doesn’t fully reflect these enhancements.

Urban Focus

CPI is based mainly on urban consumer spending, so it may not accurately reflect inflation experienced by rural or suburban populations.

Lagging Indicator

CPI is often a lagging indicator, meaning it may not reflect current inflation trends as quickly as other measures, such as commodity prices.

Excludes Asset Prices

CPI does not include changes in asset prices like real estate or stocks, which can be significant components of wealth and cost of living, especially for higher-income individuals.

Weighting Issues

The weights assigned to different goods and services in the CPI basket may not match actual household spending patterns, leading to a distorted measure of inflation if those patterns change.

Geographic Limitations

CPI cannot be used to compare price levels or living costs between different areas, only changes over time within the same area.

[Red_Arrow]

Trump has flip-flopped on tariffs over and over again. Many of them have been put on hold till this month, and many buyers stockpiled products in anticipation of lack of products beginning this summer. Many ports are nearly empty now and even if they quickly filled up, transporting products to buyers will take time. Many economists are expecting the rise in prices to hit as the stockpiles are depleted, bringing the expected rises in prices to consumers.

In other words it is too early to tell the effects of the tariffs. Wait till summer and after.

[chrissykerdock]

initially i thought it would take time but not so

[OlderAndWiser]

CNN: attempting to shape public opinion by manipulating and distorting facts, one story at a time.

[Syntosi]

From what I have seen its a combination of people expecting this train-wreck to happen faster than it actually does, so they are getting hopeful that we avoided it prematurely and the rest who recognize that we are in deep shit so they rather save their money than invest or consume right now.

We have already long since passed the point of no return, there will be a shock to the market at some point, the question is simply when that will actually happen. I guess you can think of this as USA "bracing for impact"?

[OneViewpoint]

Do you understand how manufacturing, distribution, and retail businesses work? Do you understand how tariffs work? Ever hear of a thing called inventory? Inventory held at manufacturers? Inventory held at distributors? Inventory held at retailers?

Hint: Implementing a tariff is not like flicking a light switch. To complicate matters Cheeto Jesus aka our TACO President has backed down about a dozen times in 3 months.

Instead of looking at CPI, start looking at companies laying off (Google) or canceling expansion / investment plans due to uncertainty and chaos generated risk in tRumps economy for the mentally disadvantaged.

[Cormac995]

It's because "These things happen slowly then all at once." when you start beating the economy with a baseball bat the effects aren't immediate in fact we will probably start to feel the worst of it conveniently AFTER the next 4 years so Trump will get non of the blame and the new guy (Assuming there isn't a coup and we become a dictatorship) will get most of the blame for what he did. Also part of why it was less than expected is because Trump keeps pussying out on the tariffs before he gets anything because every time he places them the stock market has a fucking heart attack.

[exitseven]

Retailers like Home Depot, Target and Amazon are either absorbing the tariffs or are making their suppliers absorb them. Car manufacturers are offering additional discounts to offset any tariffs.

I just noticed that the price of crude oil had jumped die to the threat of a war between Israel and Iran. This may result in a jump in price at the pump which may make the price of everything else go up.

It will be interesting to see how the democrats will blame this on President Trump.

[BonzoInBitburg]

US imports were way up in the first quarter trying to beat the tariffs so that hasn't really factored in yet. Also, oil is lower and that drove the CPI lower. The Fed is trying to keep inflation under 2% and right now it's creeping up close to 3% so I wouldn't consider CPI low. It's not terrible but it's not great

[ProbablyClueless]

One thing you have to understand about the anti-Trump people is that they're operating (I think in good faith) on the belief that our system was set up and functions the way it was because that the way the system works best.

It's that idea of the appeal to authority. Someone with more education on this subject than I have probably would have thought of things I never considered. So I'm going to trust that this group of experts has considered and ruled out the solutions I think make more sense for good and logical reasons.

These people haven't considered the possibility that that their foundational assumption might be wrong.

[Shiprex]

Prices haven't changed because TACO hasn't impacted anything significantly enough. That inflation has risen is an indicator there are worries of irrational behaviour by the TACO REGIME being useless and destroying the economy from within.

[Avicenna]

Only people who believe Democratic Party propaganda are surprised.

For example, @OddBeMe hysterically claimed a depression was on the way due to tariffs.

[OddBeMe]

Not wanting one. But having 10 trillion wiped out of our stock market...
www.nerdwallet.com/.../are-we-in-a-recession

[Dongie]

Probably because Trump is RIGHT and they are WRONG!!

[NathanDavis]

stupid tariffs are off... which is exactly why called off most of them, himself...

[Twalli]

How many tarrifs have been paused or drastically reduced before they were even enforced?

[Geo1970]

The issue surrounding inflation is a huge burden for all of us worldwide.


The country I live is horrific, inflation has risen way above growth and is literally killing the taxpayer.

[RedInnocent69]

I wonder too. I expect the effect of TACO Trump’s waffling has delayed the impact

[sage2021]

CNN is fake news!!💯

[sage2021]

You gave me a like for my opinion however, it didn't register on here.🤔