OMG. Are you preparing for this in New England?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

The model got even STRONGER. I'ts forecasting 968mb low over Maine on Friday and Saturday. You better stock food and heating oil because your power is going OUT and you're going to be screwed if you bought Joe Biden's electric heaters.

Jesus Christ...968mb over land for a cold core system. I've never seen that before...

Updates

1 y

I got what you can compare this to. I think 3 years ago there was that "bomb cyclone" nor'Easter with 75 sustained and 100mph gusts which went up the east coast and ended near Maine. This is like that, except it forms directly on land that strong. So keep that in mind. I'm warning you. It peels shingles and siding off your house if the main wind band hits you.

Updates

1 y

So environmental pressure is usually around 1010mb or so (numbers above that don't matter much anyway). So then start with 5mph winds as a baseline. For every 1mb the pressure drops below 1010mb, add TWO MPH to the wind speed. 968mb is 42 less than 1010mb, so then double that and get 84mph and add 5mph to get 89mph.

This simplified system is then predicting Maine and Canada will get 89mph SUSTAINED winds from the ULL and gusts of well over 100mph to perhaps 120mph

[Stevepro68]

You have never been to Maine have you! It ain't Texas big boy. I've seen it snow for 17days straight and the snow was past the top of my garage door. I have a generator and a wood stove for 23 years. I've only had to use the generator sparingly. Maybe you should come up to moosehead lake and stay the winter. Cold weather means snowmobile yea!

[SeekerOfTruth007]

I've been in the eye wall of a Category 4 hurricane and probably 20 Category 3 hurricanes. I'm just warning people, 968mb low isn't normal even for Maine.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

I'm not too concerned about the rain or the snow in this situation. I'm worried about the 75 to 100mph straight line winds and the potential for tornados in the warm sector of the storm. People who don't have "above code" houses are going to get screwed over this time around. Plus a random tree falling on your house will wreck you no matter what code you're constructed to withstand.

[Stevepro68]

I understand that it looks bad but hardly rare for those of us who grew up in Maine. Look at Nemo 80mph winds 35 inches of snow. July tornados 2017 and the bomb cyclone 2017. 5 back to back ice storms 1998 with 1.2 million losing power. I was without power for 2 weeks with hurricane sandy. Blizzard of 1978 I was 10 years old and 100 mph wind and 52 inches of snow.
It's Maine... you don't live here if you can't handle bad weather but thanks for the concern.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Okay, I hope you're right, because this is really screwed up.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

The computer backed down slightly, but it's still forecasting a 970mb low for Maine and Canada. This is quite abnormal to be the first winter storm of the year. This is just starting, i'd say the worst weather for Maine will be on Sunday, but the storm itself will continue into Monday and maybe even Tuesday.

Power outages have already been observed with this system on land, and a bad traffic accident has happened in Pennsylvania.

[strateguy632]

Aww, i am sorry the fear mongering got you.

"Senior official" not just an opinion official n senior!

I just remind you: science is observation not FUTURE! (nor past when not observed).

Don't you know? News companies select the "sensational scientists " just for the rating?

Not because it is truth.

[strateguy632]

The actual warning locally is wind only 20 mph! Expected mixed "gusts" 40 mph raising waves... 3 feet high... a tzunami?
I told you not trust model.

[strateguy632]

https://www.wcvb.com/alerts
We see lost "reputable".
Local warning is the relevant one.

[lightbulb27]

I look at the weather and no sign of this on east coast. where do you see this?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Check GFS and Euro computer models for Friday and Saturday on Tropical Tidbits dot com. That site's owner is the administrator of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, so he's reputable.

This link is the specific frame of the model in question.

www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../

[SeekerOfTruth007]

It's going to form from this stuff over Oklahoma and Missouri right now, and some of the remnants for Sara, although most of Sara's remnants is going to get kicked way out to sea by then.

[lightbulb27]

fun site. this is well north of me. so this is lower than other bomb cyclones?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

For the "landfall" yeah as far as east coast Nor'easters goes. This is like the "perfect storm" in the 1990's.

The storm on the west coast right now is even stronger, but it is not forecast to make "landfall".

[lightbulb27]

I hope people whom are up there are informed... I'd have no idea looking at the weather.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Here's the new model run in again. It shows almost exactly the same results. This is bad, because this is what we call consistency and reliability in forecasting. TWC and Accuweather are going to go nuts now, because there's enough model support to put this on television now.

www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../...pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

[lightbulb27]

they love a terrible event. fear drives clicks.
sounds real, people better batten down hatches up there.
I'm near NY, doesn't look like hitting that far down.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Most of Maine is going to take it pretty bad, but Canada will get the worst of it as usual. This is pretty darn significant event if these models verify.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

They are forecasting 2 FEET of snow for parts of west virginia now, and may as well say so for Maine now that the model is verifying. This is going to be HEAVY, WET SNOW which will give you a HEART ATTACK if you try to shovel it too much. This is not the pretty white fluffy snow most likely.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

This WON'T have a closed low like a hurricane, but it will have ONE big band that will be VERY freaking powerful. I'm talking about the kind of thing you want to be in your safe place while it's hitting. Like in a bathtub in an inner bathroom or in your basement for the duration of the event.

[lightbulb27]

that sounds serious. 84mph doesn't sount "that" bad, but definitely take shingles. bigger issue would be poewr outages and freezing. trees falling down.
Winter.. is late... appears to be coming with a vengence.
climate "change" throwing more violence...

I still see nothing on this... like on NOAA.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

They are watching it, trust me. Dr. Knabb on the weather channel is mentioning it sometimes now. The professional meteorologists are usually a tad more conservative than me when dealing with this type of weather.

[lightbulb27]

got it...
arcfieldweather.com/.../7so3xanufm8bj1hvvvh6cjcil9vzxg

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Freaking cheap contractors two-nail shingles that are supposed to have 6 nails per shingle, so they blow off in hurricane force winds. They are supposed to be good to 115mph, but that never works in the real world. In the real world, shingles installed properly fail at about 110mph, and the ones installed by BS shoddy contractors fail in Category 1 range.

Either way, this is going to be a mess in just a few days, and even worse the 15 days model run is suggesting ANOTHER ONE about the same power level 15 days out.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

New run is out, and it's even slightly stronger. 965mb over land, 964mb over water. That's a Category 2 hurricane. Might even get named. It's partially Warm Core for God's sake.

www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../

[SeekerOfTruth007]

I did a simulated SOUNDING from the computer model data, and the system is forecast to have 75mph sustained winds at surface level, and 90KNOTS or 105mph sustained winds at the 950mb atmospheric level, which as strong as this system will be, that's no higher up than the tops of your trees, especially in hills and mountainous terrain.

So at the coast you can expect that 75mph sustained and 100mph gusts I predicted, and in the mountains you're going to get 105mph with 120mph to 125mph gusts.

This is no joke. This is probably going to be the worst nor'Easter in my lifetime.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

If you've never seen 100mph wind, it's going to be total whiteout even if it's not snowing. If it is not snowing, visibility will be about 50 to 100 FEET, and if it is snowing visibility will be about 10 to 15 FEET.. You won't be able to see whether a tree is falling on you or you'r eabout to get hit by a tree branch, etc.

You'll need to be in a basement or an interior room in the hallway or bathroom with a mattress over your head during the worst part of this storm.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

As for tree damage, 1 in 3 or 4 trees will be destroyed by this. Oaks will be uprooted and fall. Pines wil l be broken off like match sticks usually 20 to 30 feet above ground level. Every family will have 5, 10, even 20 or more downed trees on their property.

Do not go outside to play in the rain or snow until the storm passes, because you'll get hit by debris and injured.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

You're probably going to get 3 to 6 feet of Storm Surge in Cape Cod and Coastal Maine and especially coastal Canada, with higher wave action on top of that.

Again, this will be the most powerful Nor'Easter in at least 25 years, if not the past 50 years.

[lightbulb27]

Great info, amazed you saw this so early.
how far down it go?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

The model says 964 millibars, but again this is a global and synoptic model for guidance. It can't resolve meso-scale properly, so if anything, the Coastal Low will be slightly stronger than the model predicts.

[BetaBucks]

What does 968mb mean?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

968millibars pressure drop. That's going to produce easily 75 to 100mph winds and blizzard conditions over at least half of Maine and the Candian maritimes. This is going to be a once in 25 years storm easily. I watch almost every storm that forms anywhere in the world, and I've never seen this happen this way. This is going to be one HELL of a fucking cold core system.

[BetaBucks]

Shouldn't they be evaluating for this?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

To put this in perspective, anything below 980mb is TERRIBLE and usually TORNADO PRODUCER. The 2011 tornado outbreak was 977mb. so 968mb is 9mb lower and stronger pressure than the 2011 tornado outbreak.

This is going to blow down one out of every 3 or 4 of the trees in the entire countryside.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Accuweather is starting to hint at this. yes. They want a little more model support to talk about it on television, but both of the best global models are in STRONG AGREEMENT that this makes sense. That's usually very bad when both models agree in the 3 to 5 days range.

They are already starting to forecast freezing rain and snow mix for Ohio valley, and FOX weather even used the term "Blizzard" twice already. It's going to be bad I'm warning you. I'm pretty good at this, you know.

[BetaBucks]

All I see is light rain for 3-5 days out. I think you're worrying about something that has a small chance of happening. News tends to exaggerate odds of chaos, to stir up more interest in the news. Nothing wrong with being prepared though.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

These are the computer models the National Weather Service and European Weather Service have used for 20 years to forecast the weather. This isn't hype. Trust me I'm warning you guys because I'm usually better than the people on television. The rain isn't the problem, it's going to be wind like you've NEVER seen in your life if you've never been through a major hurricane.

[BetaBucks]

The NWS showed 15 mph winds on the forecast though. I'm just saying not to stress out about it. The odds seem low.

And I'm in California so weather isn't an issue. We just have to worry about theft and stepping on heroin needles.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

The GFS UNDER-ESTIMATES wind speed and pressure drops of individual storms, because it's a Global Model, not a Meso-scale model. It is tell you the general pattern, but the actual storm is always STRONGER than what the GFS shows. Just watch and learn. The people in New England are going to get CLOBBERED.

[BetaBucks]

I'll pay attention to it and see what happens

[SeekerOfTruth007]

You need to also watch FOX weather and Accuweather if you get it. There's a cyclone off the coast of Washington State which is going to send 12 to 18 inches of rainfall into NOrthern california and the region aroudn there. That's catastrophic in the high mountains.

[juliaanita]

There sure are a lot of trolls on this site lately

[SeekerOfTruth007]

www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../...pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Okay try Tropical Tidbits dot com and watch the GFS and european models out through Friday and Saturday and look at the low pressure centers that form over the Great Lakes and Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.

I am not lying. This is going to be like a Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane landfall, depending on how accurate this model run ends up being.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Look, I'm sorry I insulted you, but you need to realize a 968mb low pressure system will blow the roof clear off your house, and every other house in the neighborhood too. You better PRAY that model run is wrong is all I'm saying, because it's usually right once it's 5 or less days out.

[juliaanita]

ill be watching the weather, but im not sure about the 'Biden's electric heaters' comment.