Should I tell my manager that I'm thinking of leaving soon?

Like I've been working here for about 16 months now, everyone is really super nice and it's a great first "proper" job. But next September I'm going to need something that's either hybrid or completely working from home so that I can do school drop offs and pick ups etc. So in a couple of months I'm going to start looking for jobs (I've just moved home and am still getting furniture and things, and I'm constantly tired so not good if I want to be my best).

I'm pretty sure they know that I'll be leaving soon, I said to my manager that I see myself as x in five years which is completely different to what I'm doing now. I've mentioned a couple of times I'm going to need to change jobs before lo goes to school so it's not that they don't know sometime in the future it'll happen.

We're short staffed atm already, and I figure the earlier I tell them the more prep they can get for getting another person there.

What do you think? When would you tell your manager when you're thinking/are leaving?
I'll tell them when I'm thinking of it
I'll tell them when I've applied/applying
I'll tell them once I've landed an interview
I'll tell them once it's confirmed I've got the new job and I'm handing in my notice
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Should I tell my manager that I'm thinking of leaving soon?
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