Trust Is Always A Gamble (Page 2)

[TheAfrikan]

Thanks my dear for the lovely message meaningful words about trust n how big it is buy hard to be found.
So thanks for the links too you need a hug or cuddle from me 🌷

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Thanks... And 🤗🤗

[Twalli]

Peop kn e on tge is autism spectrum have difficulty expressing empathy, so it's only an issues if the person cannot empathize.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

👍👍👍

[COMMODOREII]

I try not to gamble too long. I don't like losing my money. 😎

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Love is a gamble tho

[es20490446e]

Look, everyone that was non dependable failed pretty quick my test.

So I suspect people get with the wrong people very aware of it, then they blame their luck for it.

[OddBeMe]

Yeah... that’s why I rarely trust. Adds a lot of stress to my life.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

It can be hard to trust, especially when you see people coaching others to lie... But if you really get to know the person well enough to read their actions versus just going by their words, better odds

[Waldoe]

Well put, and I agree 100, Trust isn't given, it's earned

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Thank you! And right!

[Smegskull]

They don't need a bouncer but I know plenty cary pepper spray or a tazer.

Also your comparison doesn't quite work as it assumes unreported cases would be rape and all false accusations are found out. We never know the full picture because people lie and some of them so well we all believe them.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Weren't my comparisons tho, read the links or do your own research. There's even articles about overstated false allegation claims and how social media adds fuel to it. Why backed anything I said up with links to the info, where most people are just throwing things out there and calling them facts 🤷🏼‍♀️

[Smegskull]

Ok pedant. The sources you have selected to support your biases pose their question from a false premise.

My point was there already wasn't trust, what's changed is people complaining about it.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

False according to who, you? Okay then🤷🏼‍♀️

[Smegskull]

False according to logical fallacies...

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Listening to false statistics from biased men with an agenda in the internet, yeah that's real logical 🙄

[Smegskull]

Which statistics and which men?

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

The guys on here that are always warning about fake allegations, and the ones saying all a woman has to do is accused a man and he gets arrested and jailed and that is so not true!! Again people should go by the real facts not made up shit on the internet

[Smegskull]

Is that my fault?

[Smegskull]

I just pointed out the assumptions are fallacies. i. e. present your argument better, I didn't pick sides.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

I didn't make assumptions tho, did I... Do maybe pick yours better 🙂

[Smegskull]

"And how many women really have been raped? Those numbers are higher than reported because of all the rapes that go unreported. (usually for fear of not being believed or told it was their fault)"

Looks pretty assumptive there...
What assumptions am I making? Again I'm just highlighting logical fallacy flaws in the post. I hadn't even assumed if you agreed with or were devils advocating those points just that they were poorly made...

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Again, click on the links, those were stated facts, based on research done by studies, so know what you taking about. Those weren't my words, those were taken from the research I did, so do yours before you claim I'm assuming things.🤷🏼‍♀️

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

But okay, thanks for your input 🙂

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Oh, but here
Probably for the same reasons that nearly 80 percent of rapes and sexual assaults go unreported, according to a Justice Department analysis of violent crime in 2016. The reality is, it’s very common for sexual assault survivors — most frequently, women — to decline to report the offense to police. At the same time, false accusations of rape or sexual assault are rare
And here's the link:
www.brennancenter.org/.../sexual-assault-remains-dramatically-underreported

[Smegskull]

Unreported cases aren't facts because until they have been through court and ruled on they are just claims/accusations.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Yeah okay 🤷🏼‍♀️

[Smegskull]

Hang on. I'm just going through that article and putting together a list of fallacy assumptions it made from it's source data. I'll be with you in a bit (there's a lot to list... lets just say there's a very good reason journalists aren't statisticians or scientists)

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Yet those statistics came from the department of justice, so 🤷🏼‍♀️

[Smegskull]

Yes but the article was written a journalist who (as happens far too often) has made the assumption they are smart enough to understand what the statistics mean.
The big one being mistaking correlation for causation as per usual.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Then go to the actual department of justice site yourself, I couldn't download that here cuz it loads as PDF...

[Smegskull]

I'm on the pdf. Just be patient writing a lecture on how statistics work isn't fast on my phone.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Save the lecture I actually worked for a government agency and statistics so I do know how it works, but gee thanks lol

[Smegskull]

Well everyone else seeing this post didn't so to prevent them believing fallacious conclusions (and because I've started writing it now) you're getting it anyway.
Also that's a bit sad and very ironic that I have to mansplain something to you that you should have already known... (unless you did know and are deliberately trying to deceive people)

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Okay I'm done here... You aren't explaining anything, and I misrepresented nothing...

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

People just don't like when the whole made up falsifications about false allegations are called out and verified.

[Smegskull]

I just don't like poorly made points and have an addiction to correcting people. I'm used to people hating me for it but my moto is "It's better to be right than liked."

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

What poorly made points? Like guys that say they go to jail the minute they get accused=false!!! Or that women that falsely accuse of rape never get charged= false!!
Those are the false facts you should be correcting 🙂

[Smegskull]

Why would I repeat the corrections you/your sources have already made?

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

I thought I didn't though according to you 🤔 lololol

[Smegskull]

Nope... that's not what any of my responses say.
False accusers get sued for slander quite often (ok that's not the same as a criminal prosecution but that's a legislative problem) I haven't argued against that... Does that arbitrary affirmation of one of your points make you feel any better? (This feels like I'm having to placate a childs ego, you're nearly 50 for God's sake, you shouldn't need my validation as a prefix to properly listening to a critique)

[Smegskull]

““Probably for the same reasons that nearly 80 percent of rapes and sexual assaults go unreported, according to a Justice Department analysis of violent crime in 2016.””
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No this is according to his interpretation of that data.
1. It is rapes OR sexual assaults not “and” that percentage does not necessarily apply to both individually.
2. Definitions: Victims are asked if... “the offender THREATEN[ED] you with harm in any way?” The survey participant is classified as a victim of rape or sexual assault if he or she responds afirmatively... and then responds that the threatened attack was; rape, attempted rape, sexual assault other than rape/attempted rape, verbal threat of rape, verbal threat of sexual assault other than rape, unwanted sexual contact with force (e. g., grabbing, fondling), unwanted sexual contact without force (e. g., grabbing, fondling).
Just so it’s clear that is classifying “A threat of unwanted sexual contact without force” in that only 20% of victimisations are reported statistic. This could be anything, cat-calling, confident flirting, awkward jokes, etc and still be classed in the statistic for rape. (In case it isn’t clear that is an insane standard) The study even indicates this “Victims may not report a victimization for a variety of reasons, including... believing the crime to be a personal issue or too trivial to report”
Arguably were some of these potential events to be reported they would be found to be false accusations. So potentially (and this is purely speculative as the details of victim responses are not published) unmade false accusations would be used to inflate unreported rapes.
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Now the article has set it’s premiss based on untrue or misleading presumptions everything going forward gets a bit shakey without it’s foundation (Narrative)

[Smegskull]

““The reality is, it’s very common for sexual assault survivors — most frequently, women — to decline to report the offence to police.””
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That isn’t proven through this study, it explicitly highlights that: It excludes correctional facilities (the place where convicted rapists end up) and “In addition, the methods used to produce this file introduce additional non-sampling errors that should be considered when making conclusions from the file.”

[Smegskull]

““At the same time, false accusations of rape or sexual assault are rare. And that should inform how we weigh Dr. Ford’s allegations, as well as those of other survivors.””
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No the abundance and adequacy of the evidence should but that isn’t anything to do with the studies the article is butchering.

[Smegskull]

““It may sound incredible that only around 23 percent of survivors report such crimes to police, but it’s true. And that number is in line with past reports: Surveys of 2014 and 2015 both put reporting rates for rape and sexual assault in the low 30s. (A history of low reporting rates is one reason the Brennan Center declines to analyse trends in sexual assault in our crime reports. And low reporting rates don’t detract from the broader conclusions to those reports, that crime and violent crime remain historically low.)””
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This whole paragraph is built on that word manipulation using the words rape and sexual assault while omitting the fact that the definition has been expanded so broadly in the referenced study.
2014/15 study follows the same method though less details on the questions asked is provided so there may be a difference. The important criticism is that sexual assault or threats of rape are included in the percentage of unreported rapes (though this time not threats of sexual assault).

[Smegskull]

““Rape and sexual assault are serious offences. So why aren’t they reported? Survivors cite several reasons. Twenty percent, according to the DOJ report, worry about retaliation — not just from the perpetrator, but from society at large. Thirteen percent said they think the police would not do anything to help. Tragically, 8 percent said they didn’t think the rape or sexual assault was important enough to report.””
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Not by the expanded definitions in the referenced study. They are anything from serious offences to rudeness.
That RAINN link chains its way back to the NCVS papers (creating the illusion of multiple sources by using a middle man) with the several reasons being “fear of reprisal or getting the offender in trouble, believing that police would not or could not do anything to help, and believing the crime to be a personal issue or too trivial to report.”
I’m not sure where their breakdown of the reasons to not report comes from. The Report they cite states a reason was collected but doest appear to give a percentage breakdown.
Not part of this argument but this sort of exploitation of a words pre-existing connotation can only work for so long before the term becomes so over used it isn’t taken seriously (boy cried wolf, Matilda's lies, etc). Which will only hurt women in the long run sadly.

[Smegskull]

““Sexual assault survivors struggle with a wide range of emotions that make coming forward difficult: fear of re-victimization, distortion of allegations, and generally not being believed. As psychotherapist Beverly Engel puts it, “victims are often too ashamed to come forward. Sexual assault is a very humiliating and dehumanizing act against someone.” Why do victims often blame themselves? Engel continues: “[A]ttached to that shame is a lot of self-blame [. . .] because in our culture, we tend to blame victims in general.” ””
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Anecdotal but fair.

[Smegskull]

““For all these reasons, unreported assaults are all too common. Far less common, however, are false accusations of sexual assault or rape, hovering between 2 and 10 percent in the United States.”” ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I had no idea it was that high (I thought 2-5). That’s a huge problem not because guys have to defend themselves in court but because those 2-10% are discrediting every real victim out there even more so than the language trickery studies and articles like this use does.

[Smegskull]

““You wouldn’t know that from Kavanaugh’s defenders, including the president, who have insinuated that the judge’s accusers may be lying. But statistically speaking, it is far more common for a survivor of sexual assault to decline to report it than for someone to make false accusations of assault. ””
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Again this is a false premise as the outcome of any to all investigations into those unreported cases could reveal them to be false we just don’t know so it’s ridiculous to make that claim

[Smegskull]

““Given these statistics, we should be doing everything in our power to remove societal and structural barriers that can prevent survivors from coming forward.””
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I agree however as you posted, Trust is a gamble, you want more trust, I could argue improve the odds.

[Smegskull]

Questioning Dr. Ford’s motives, and asking why she didn’t come forward earlier — as many have done — both run directly counter to that goal. And they may further discourage survivors from coming forward with their stories, especially if the allegations are against those in positions of power.
The set of statistics surrounding sexual assault tell a clear story. Sexual assault is much more common than we think, while false accusations are much rarer than some of Judge Kavanaugh’s more partisan defenders have suggested. When we confront allegations of assault, in politics and in culture, we should understand the realities that sexual assault survivors face when speaking out about their experiences. ””
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No these statistics very much don’t tell a clear story. Even ignoring the presumption that a unreported claim means a crime happened ad the extraordinary expansion of definitions; the study disclose how high the percentage of first time responders and surveyors they have, it is a voluntary response survey (which is notoriously affirmative biased), a control group is not included, the survey was given to a select demographic (yes for practicality but it is hugely important for statistical validity) and it seams from the method description (God I hope I’m wrong) that the surveyors where deciding from responses whether a responder was a victim or not irrespective of that persons belief/agency. I know it is a census so it isn’t held to the same standard but it would even be submitted for peer review let alone pass.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

I don't need your validation or your critique but thanks... But someone accusing someone of childish behavior? Isn't that what resorting to insults is 🤔 childish? Nowhere did I personally insult you, your age or your intelligence, just your claims that I was assuming things I wasn't... But okay then, thanks again 🙂

[guywho]

Never trust humans becuase they are humans. You can never know what they will do or decide the next day.

[guywho]

In fact don't even trust yourself.

[Bowder]

Date her get to know her. Then you will trust her and vice versa

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Exactly, people need to take more time to know the person

[CubaPirate]

Sure it is, just ensure you bet irresponsibly. And when the fun stops stop!

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

For some people "sex" is about intimacy and bonding/cementing a relationship, not just "fun"

[CubaPirate]

Responsibly

[DesolateRain]

If that's the case then I put my trust as a bear minimum.

It's already bad enough that I think everyone wants to see me FUCKING DEAD.

Everyone hates me and they want to kill me and I'M FUCKING ONTO THEM.

[thefamousone]

Why you get in the bed while you have sex with somebody that there's no trust Videotaping sounds like that could be fun but that's for a wrong reason How to go city corner masturbate then How to go city corner masturbate then

[jshm2]

You're confused.

Trust is NEVER a gamble -as then it's "hope" not "trust". There is a large difference and people get burned because they don't know that.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

I would disagree with that. Anything in life can be a gamble.

[jimmy2]

That true but look for what they put out. Do they put out good or bad

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

👍👍👍

[Vasiliki75]

Yes especially in the begin I give 50% trust the other 47% gotta earn it 3% so we don’t get to comfortable then neglected each other.

[ScotishLegend]

Love in my opioion is ways a gamble.

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

That's very true!!

[jakejacobson110]

I record audio of sex all the time because it is legal and non invasive. False rape accusations ruin people's career, social life, family reputation, all without any proof. It's too bad that it's a necessary protection.

[MysteriousDarkness]

The thing is if during sex they try to push you away, say the safe word etc and you continue then it is considered rape and ir abuse.

[KrakenAttackin]

Without a doubt trust is a gamble. I think it was Mao who said "the only way three people can keep a secret is of two of them are dead".

[krin_m]

Very nicely written! Thanks for sharing!

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

Thank you! 🙂💜

[Anonymous]

Everything's a Gamble

[Brainsbeforebeauty]

True true, life itself is a gamble

[Opinion Owner]

👍...