Is nuclear war inevitable? If so how many Americans will die and afterwards will the USA exist as a country?

[Adaeva]

Even A ‘Limited’ Nuclear War Quickly Could Kill 90 Million People

In his article, Paul Craig Roberts, Institute for Political Economy, explains that since the neoconservatives have control of all the principal agencies of government–the National Security Council, the Pentagon, the Department of State. They control the US media, the think tanks, and the foundations, he believes nuclear war is in the cards.
https://www.unz.com/proberts/does-america-have-a-future-3/

Updates

+1 y

Putin is showing remarkable restraint. If the rolls were reversed, there would already be a nuclear war. Imagine if Russia was installing nuclear bases is Cuba and South and Central America, and had spent $100 billion to overturn Mexico's election and installed their puppet president hostile to the USA and was now about to install a Nuclear base in Mexico. Then if 95% of the people in a northern portion of Mexico voted to join the USA and Russia had the gall to say the vote was not legitment.

[abc3643]

No of course not.

However, if you want to know about things like this, consider reading the 1982 best seller:

Nuclear War: What's In It For You? by Ground Zero*

*A non-partisan, educational project producing materials and programs responsive to the concerns of the American people regarding nuclear war"

Nuclear War: What’s In It For You?
Finalist, National Book Awards 1983 for Original Paperback

It's an easy read although some of the data is a little old now, but the basic ideas are still there and all still legitimate.

Cover

Back Cover

Forward

I'd also recommend viewing the entire 1983 7-part series "War" on the social science of war and its evolution, by award-winning historian Gwynne Dyer.

This is Part 1: The Road to Total War. You should watch the first few minutes at least of this episode.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/tPnppCelvk0

"Notes on Nuclear War" is Part 6 and focuses on the theory and history of nuclear war, and its implications. His interview with two US soldiers in a missile silo while undergoing a launch simulation is fascinating. His line at 25:53 once they turn the missile launch keys: "This is the way the world will end."

https://www.youtube.com/embed/u4Wb2p28tlY

It's also a bit sobering when (beginning about 52:22), he's in Moscow and talks about SIOP (the US's Single Integrated Operational Plan) and targeting.
"SIOP allots about 60 nuclear weapons to targets inside Moscow city limits. A reasonable guess that would include one nuclear weapon on the Ministry of Electronic Industries just around that corner, another on Communist Party Headquarters behind me, and four or five big ones on the Kremlin less than half a mile over that way just to be sure."

[abc3643]

You sourced UNZ Review for this question.
Please keep in mind that they are not a journalistic organization and, in fact, are a propaganda machine with low credibility in factual reporting.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-unz-report/

[abc3643]

Paul Craig Roberts is an "interesting character". He's almost 84.

"The Institute for Political Economy" ___is___ Paul Craig Roberts. The Institute's website is https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/

Instead of citing UNZ Review, you should cite Paul Craig Roberts's original essay there. This removes any bias or horseshit UNZ Review might add. Put another way, by going directly to Paul Craig Roberts's website, there is no stigma from UNZ Review being an unreliable source. Paul's website __IS__ the source of the article, so going there has Paul solely speaking for himself. Understand? This is an example of doing due diligence ->>> Find the original source material and let it speak for itself.

Does America Have a Future?
March 30, 2023
www.paulcraigroberts.org/.../

Keep in mind that UNZ Review often funds Paul Craig Roberts.

[Adaeva]

Thank you for your comments and especially the movies. I watched both movies. The first was horrifying. The second was ten times worse. In the last 450 million years there has been 5 major mass extinctions and that doesn't include the mass extinction 2 billion year earlier as the result of oxygen producing life. None of the species every existed again. Nuclear war could be another mass extinction and if all mammals and birds die, humans will be forever extinct.

[abc3643]

Well, "War by Gwynne Dyer" was a Canadian TV series that was also broadcast on PBS.
This is the playlist for the entire series.
www.youtube.com/watch

[AviatorTom]

There are so many nuclear weapons out there that, sooner or later, someone is going to use one if them, either intentionally or as a mistake. Hopefully, calm heads will prevail and it will not escalate into war. Otherwise, you might as well bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.

[NamerOfStars]

Um, the time when the neoconservatives had control of all three branches of government was twenty years ago. We didn't have a nuclear war then. Currently, the Supreme Court is 6-3 on Republican-appointed judges, but remember that they're Congressionally-approved; I defy you to find a substantive difference between John Roberts and Merrick Garland. The Senate is 50-48 Republican and the House 222-213; hardly an overwhelming majority. And of course, there's a freaking DEMOCRAT in the White House. If you're going to claim that Joe Biden is antiConstitutional jackass who ought to be rotting in a prison cell, I'm with you completely, but the man's about as far from a neoconservative as you can get.

If war comes, it won't be from the movements of a political party that's not in power.

[KrakenAttackin]

No. I grew up in the 80's when the thought of nuclear war was much more real than today. The fact is that conservative doctrines such as "mutually assured destruction" and "peace through strength," worked and worked well.

It may be counter intuitive to many today but weakness invites attack. You can only be a "peaceful" society if you are capable of great destruction, and choose not to use that power. Not having great destructive power just makes you "harmless", which invites others to seize your resources.

We have an incredibly weak administration and culture right now which does make us vulnerable. I can only hope we recert to more sane leadership.

[msc545]

What is your thought about the possibility of an accidental nuclear war?

[KrakenAttackin]

@msc545 Accidental nuclear war is always possible. I think the most likely scenario for a nuclear exchange is between India and Pakistan, or India and China.

[msc545]

Agree - thanks!

[Anonymous]

Its funny that you should say that...

Putin doesn't have to do any of that, its pretty much the history of U. S.- Mexican/Latin American relations.

* We have gone to war with Mexico in 1845 after (from Mexico's point of view) its northern potions voted to join the USA.
* Mexico had a generally hostile goverment for much of its history, with or without forign meddling. Medding which has nonetheless taken place thou out said history including even allegedly a German offer to help them invade the USA during World War 1.
* The USSR did in fact install nuclear Missiles in Cuba.
* The USSR also likewise had in fact helped install communist dictatorships in much of Latin Americas, while we pushed back.

In general this stuff did happen.

[Paige90]

As long as the current vegetable is President we are in danger of a nuclear war with China and Russia. It's incredible that people voted for this administration and some even think he's doing a good job!

[OddBeMe]

Like a room full of coked up morons being armed…one will start shooting.

I would imagine a nuke going off again. Probably by a belligerent country like NK, Iran or China. Pakistan and India are nuclear powers and hate each other over religion.

What matters is how we react after. Do we shoot back or de-escalate. Like the Kennedy brothers, we need someone in charge who de-escalate. Could you imagine what Trump would do in the Cuban Missle Crisis?

[Adaeva]

Rand Paul probably won't run and wouldn't get the nomination if he so no hope there. The only Kennedy that might be viable has a speech problem so no help there. Biden is under the control of neocons and that's not good. Even worse, as long as he is surrounded by our military, Trump, wants to prove he is a tough guy and will likely escalate. And, Putin may not have any more patience.

Nothing that serious has happened in over 70 years leading people to believe it never will. Therefore, the risk that something happens that quickly escalates out of control is increasing.

[OddBeMe]

Democrats (whisper)

[NostalgiaSenpi]

Todays world nuclear arsenals are comparatively tiny in a historical perspective. The total amount of Nuclear weapons is down in both quantity and yield. The peak year of 1986 had an estimated 70,300 deployed nuclear weapons where today it is something less than 20,000.

[Adaeva]

As if though 20,000 is a small number. Do you have any idea of how many Americans would die if our 1,000 largest cities were hit with 1 megaton nuclear bombs?

[AviatorTom]

@nostalgiasenpi 20,000 nukes is still a lot more than what's needed to obliterate the planet. Some experts say as few as 500 warheads would wipe out civilization, maybe not initially but over time due to radiation fallout.

[007kingifrit]

no, but it is very likely right now

for one thing none of our world leaders have seen war themselves or been in the army so they are much more likely to stumble into war, unlike the cuban missile crisis where every leader was a ww2 vet

interestingly the rise of directed energy weapons means missiles will be undeliverable in the next 10 years or so. if a war doesn't happen in the next 10 years the nuclear era will be over

[exitseven]

millions will die worldwide. it will be a real apocqlypse

[worldscolide]

LOL Wow that guy is brainless. Last time i checked it was not the conservatives getting us into a senseless war that we dont belong in. I rather doubt we will use our nuclear weapons.

[Anonymous]

Well the Democrats and Biden certainly are doing everything they can to make sure it happens.

[Owen009]

If they keep antagonizing Putin, it's a real possibility.

[ERB62]

It does not have to happen.

[Jennz6]

I hope not

[In_Trance]

Lol no