On Tuesday, October 25th, the 112th Major League Baseball World Series will begin, and this time, it's between the Cleveland Indians, and Chicago Cubs. Right now, the Cubs are the heavy favorites to win the World Series. After all, they are the overall best team in baseball, and the Indians are largely viewed as a fluke by the general public. However, I have a different thought process going on, which I am going to spill out in this MyTake. I shall nickname this series "The Drought Series"-Since the Cubs, and Indians have the biggest World Series title droughts in history(108, and 68 years respectively).
Here are my reasons why I think the Indians will upset the Cubs, and win the World Series.
1. It's a best of seven game series, which is a small sample of games in baseball.
This is an obvious reason which can be stated for any World Series, but people don't seem to take this into consideration. Baseball's different, particularly in the postseason. This is a sport that even over a six-month regular season sprawl can yield fluke-ish outcomes. Distill that down to a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, and small-sample-size random variation will likely play a huge role. It's why we get a host a 80-something-win teams winning the belt and the title over the years, and it's why we get things like David Eckstein, World Series MVP. At the outset of the playoffs, always take the field over any one juggernaut, and in a World Series don't be shy about going underdog. Baseball is structurally configured to defy our most basic principles. On some level, that animates my Tribe pick.
2. The regular season has no correlation with the postseason.
Here is a fun fact: Since 2000, the MLB team with the best record of baseball has only won the World Series one time(That was the 2009 Yankees). So, the fact the Cubs had the best record in the MLB with a 103-59 record means absolutely nothing. If anything, it shows an inverse correlation, and the weakest postseason teams tend to win, as we saw with the 2014 Giants, 2011 Cardinals, 2006 Cardinals, 2003 Marlins, and 2001 Diamondbacks. Sure, the Cubs were the best team in the regular season-Not only by their record, but offense, defense, pitching, WAR, and run differential. But the Indians could very well sweep them this series.
3. The Indians have home field advantage
Thanks to the tie in the annual All-Star Game of 2002, former MLB commissioner Bud Selig enacted a new rule that there would be no more ties in the All-Star Game, and from now on, the winner of the All-Star Game will grant home field advantage to that league in the World Series. This year, the American League won the All-Star Game.
Fun fact: 23 out of the past 28 World Series winners had home field advantage in the series. It benefits to open at home, and(possibly) end at home. The "middle" games don't have near as much of a mental impact.
4. The Indians have on heck of-a bullpen
Cleveland manager Terry Francona of course leaned heavily on his bullpen in the ALDS and ALCS and did so to great effect. That five full days of rest noted above is especially important when it comes to Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and company. If you count his appearance in the All-Star Game, then this is the most rest Miller will have had since the end of April. For Allen, it's been since mid-June since he's had five days off.
As well, the World Series has three travel days build into the schedule, so Francona can lean heavily on his pen with an eye toward those off days. Francona's already proved a willingness to use his shutdown relievers in unconventional ways, and those relievers have shown a willingness to pitch and capability to thrive in those non-traditional spots. Thanks in part to the schedule and thanks in part to the Indians' taking care of Toronto in a mere five games, the Cleveland pen is ready for heavy use in the World Series.
5. The Indians could be arrested for grand theft
During the regular season, the Indians led the AL in stolen bases and stolen base percentage and did so by a substantial margin on each count. As well, the Indians also led the AL in extra bases taken and percentage of extra bases taken. Despite being such an aggressive and high-volume base-running team, their tally of outs made on the bases was roughly league-average. That is to say, the Indians have speed and instincts on bases, and they know how to leverage it.
On the other side, the Cubs were one of the NL's worst teams at controlling the running game. Only the Mets in 2016 allowed more stolen bases among NL squads, and only the Braves threw out a lower percentage of runners. Lester's difficulties in throwing to first base are well known, and he did allow 28 steals on the year. However, he and his battery-mate also accounted for a caught-stealing rate of 32 percent. Cub pitchers not named Lester allowed 105 steals, which would've ranked fifth in the NL. Moreover, remove Lester's numbers from the calculus, and Cubs pitchers and catchers extinguished just 19.2 percent of baserunners. In other words, this is much more than a Jon Lester problem.
To be sure, you have to reach base to use speed in such a manner, and that will be the challenge against an otherwise excellent Cubs pitching staff. If they can get that first 90 feet, though, then the horses shall run.
6. The Indians are the MLB's most consistent team
They aren't as dominant as the Cubs, without a doubt. But the Cubs were also streaky in the season (and postseason). The Indians are the only MLB team without more than a three game losing streak-And this even holds true in their dominant postseason performance so far. The only issue with this reasoning, is they haven't faced the Cubs this season yet-But they have dominated teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Royals.
...And with that being said
This is the most excited I've been for a World Series in my entire life. We're going to see the two teams with the biggest championship title droughts in history face each other-Something I never thought would happen. As a Reds fan, I do treat the Indians as a state rivlary-And since the Cubs have the biggest title drought in professional sports history, I have to root for them. However, I will be happy to see either team win.
Let's play ball!!!!
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