The 50% Divorce Rate Is A Myth!

[Anonymous]

Divorces Are Extremely Common...Aren't They?

If you listen to what the general media says, you'll hear that everyone is getting divorced these days and that it's totally pointless to even get married in the first place. This is all apparently true because of the sky high divorce rate, which is supposedly already at 50% and climbing higher and higher every single year...

Except that's not true at all. I did a little research, and found out that the real divorce rate is way lower than that, and it's actually been steadily declining for the past few decades.

From The NY Times: The Real Divorce Rates

From this article: The Ny Times: The Divorce Surge Is Over, but The Myth Lives On

Long story short, the article makes two main points:

1. Divorces rates were actually fairly high in the 70s and 80s, but for the past few decades the rates have been falling.

2. Despite popular opinion (from many of the guys on GAG at least), feminism/women having careers, (although to be honest not at first!) have (in the long run) actually been helping the divorce rates to fall!

Other Sources That Expose The High Divorce Rate Myths:

Also, here's a really nice excerpt from this article: The 50% Divorce Rate Is Fiction

"A spokesperson for the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics told me that the rumor appears to have originated from a misreading of the facts. It was true, he said, if you looked at all the marriages and divorces within a single year, you'd find that there were twice as many marriages as divorces. In 1981, for example, there were 2.4 million marriages and 1.2 million divorces. At first glance, that would seem like a 50-percent divorce rate.

Virtually none of those divorces were among the people who had married during that year, however, and the statistic failed to take into account the 54 million marriages that already existed, the majority of which would not see divorce."

Here's one last article: Interview On The Author of 'The Good News About Marriage' and Some Statistics

A small quote from the author of the book: "First, is the idea that, half of all marriages are ending in divorce. While some high risks groups (like those married as teenagers) may have a 50% divorce rate, we've never come close as an overall average. After looking at dozens of studies, I believe one of the most meaningful statistics is the one I mentioned earlier: 72% of people are still married to their first spouse."

Yes, Sometimes It's Really Hard To Tell Fact From Fiction...

But...In This Case, I'm Very Pleased To See It Was Fiction After All!

[srslyly]

While it's true that the 50% ratio of marriages to divorces in any given year is not predictive of the rate of divorce for those couples marrying in that year, the share of people older than their mid twenties who have never married has gone up dramatically over the time you are looking at. In light of that fact, looking at the percentage of all married people who divorce in any given year is superfluous.

A fifth of all fetuses get aborted. Two fifths (and rising) of the ones who are born are to unmarried women. Female initiated divorce without fault grounds remains common, and is rewarded by a nebulous "best interests of the child" standard coupled with massive transfer payments via government.

No, marriage does not, in any meaningful sense exist as a legally or socially enforceable institution. It says a lot about some women that they are able to behave as though they were obligated to not violate their marriage vows, but marrying a woman is about as rational as seller financing a thirty year mortgage loan on your house to a four year old.

[whatsername]

I think the rate of divorcing is going down because less people are getting married.

[Error_204]

The problem with this is that it doesn't talk about what causes divorce. There are a number of factors which often contribute to the divorce of a couple such as cohabitation, maturity level/age, income, and general stability for instance and when we talk about statistical averages it is indeed true that most divorces with all the red flags (young, impoverished, and stressed cohabitating short-term relationships) fail the most and the quickest.

"Another source for the 50-percent figure could be those who were trying to predict the future of divorce. Based on known divorce records, they projected that 50 percent of newly married young people would divorce. University of Chicago sociologist and researcher Linda Waite told USA Today that the 50-percent divorce stats were based more on assumptions than facts... One of the latest reports about divorce was released this year by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). It is based on a 1995 federal study of nearly 11,000 women ages 15-44. It predicted that one-third of new marriages among younger people will end in divorce within 10 years and 43 percent within 15 years. That is not a death sentence, however; it's a forecast. Martha Farnsworth Riche, former head of the Census Bureau, told USA Today, "This is what is going to happen unless we want to change it.""

This is your source (FactorFiction). The number is not arbitrary and does not ignore a huge wave of people but instead is built off of the red flags I mentioned with massive numbers of person's having failed marriages particularly due to, often, the predictors of a failed marriage. The statistics and the actual variance however is not stated in that article year by year and even the CDC does not offer easily acquired data (www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage_divorce_tables.htm) for values of failure but the numbers do pretty much align. 877/2118 is 41% as a predictive factor and it is consistent with a drop of only.3 points in the decade.

[Mossup]

My mum divorced my dad around 1979. I was one of two 5 yr olds starting infant schoool with a single mother.
By the time I was 18 I think over 1/3 of my peers had experienced their parents divorcing. Now age 40 I have anecdotal evidence that in my city the white kids are simply raised by unmarried parents whilst the British Asian and British African kids are mostly raised by committed loving parents and the Afro-Caribbean kids are more likely raised by single parents although thiis can be as much from bereavement as divorce. A zillion contributing factors thus contribute to the lowering of real divorce rates. My sister is 38 and with the same guy 22 years, married for 12 years. She grew up feeling let down by a mother who quit on a marriage. I'm still merely engaged to my partner at the age of 40

[Sigma88]

Marriage is becoming outdated. Less & less people don't see a rational reason to get married. Both men & women have their reasons (I certainly have mine) for removing marriage as an option. The cons of marriage outweigh the pros. And, in truth, the basic reasoning behind marriage (love, companionship, children, a life & family together) can be achieved without involving legal documentation, which could legal to very messy legal ramifications if divorce were to happen. Marriage is simply a concept with too much risk & very little to gain.

[JackKerouac77]

I really don't care what the rate is, I'm not getting married if I have even the slightest hint that I might get divorced. Not worth the financial/mental/emotional risk.

I'd rather just live together forever and have kids. At least then there will always be a clean break.

But I appreciate your take. Very interesting.

[yaddayaddayadda02]

When there are children involved there is never such a thing as a "clean break". If you own a house together, you still have to split those assets.

[JackKerouac77]

@yaddayaddayadda02
You are correct, sir.

[JackKerouac77]

Everyone please disregard this opinion. Jack's other personality, Felipe, posted this.

It makes no sense.

[Anonymous]

The rate of divorce may not be skyrocketing like it was, but the rate of marriage is plummeting because men are no longer interested like they once were. Marriage is an increasingly attractive proposition for women and and increasingly UNattractive one for men.

According to Pew Research Center, the share of women ages eighteen to thirty-four who say having a successful marriage is one of the most important things in their lives rose nine percentage points since 1997 – from 28 percent to 37 percent. For men, the opposite occurred. The share voicing this opinion dropped, from 35 percent to 29 percent.

As long as society's focus remains primarily on women's needs, men will continue to flip the bird to women and marriage.

[ObscuredBeyond]

Don't kid yourself. There are reasons that both genders aren't maturing emotionally at the rate they need to. As a result, there are women who flip the bird at men and marriage, even for reasons that make no sense. And that includes 30-something women who act like they're still 15.

[Opinion Owner]

@ObscuredBeyond - the trend is that women are increasingly interested in marriage while men's interest in marriage is decreasing. That is an undeniable fact and the point of my comment. There are reasons behind that trend and it's foolish to ignore them.

[ScruffyNerfHerder]

Haha, whether this is true or not, good luck to the girls trying to get me to settle. I've happily witnessed amazing marriages, and I've unhappily witnessed the tragedies of divorce. But the messed up results of a divorce heavily outweigh the pros of marriage.

There is nothing I can't have from a relationship with a woman that only marriage would give me. Companionship? Got it. Frequent sex? Got it. Kids? Well not yet, lol, but I could have them if I wanted. Why get married?

[Crazyced]

Where I live, if you live with a woman and have kids with her, you're basically married.

[ScruffyNerfHerder]

@Crazyced
Haha, who said anything about living with her? ;)

[Crazyced]

That's what I assumed when you talked about having kids. I have a hard time imagining someone having 'paying child support' as a life goal.

[ScruffyNerfHerder]

@Crazyced
lol, I'm speaking rot, don't take it too seriously ;)

[Crazyced]

I see, that's fine.

[chocolatedragon]

Let's also remember that less people are getting married in the 2000s than the earlier years.

It might not be less divorces happening, but rather less people getting married which will undoubtedly lead to decreased divorce rates.

[RationalMale]

Divorce rates certainly are down--if only because marriage rates have hit, what, a 40 year low, or is it 50?

Men are become extremely leery of what a poor bargain marriage offers them, so now the media/feminists are busy trying to convince them "You said divorce was a problem? Nah, there's no real divorce risk!"

[Anonymous]

Good take and some of these opinions are funny. My favorite is the "rate of divorcing is going down because less people are getting married". :P
What?

[RationalMale]

It actually is true. Marriage rates are at the lowest point since records in 1920 began. www.huffingtonpost.com/.../...-rate_n_3625222.html

[Opinion Owner]

bahahaha the numbers yes but the % no.

[dartmaul15]

True that. Also let's not forget that people who've divorced earlier is statistically a risk group too.

[ThisAndThat]

The divorce rate is probably down on account of the rate of marriage has all but stalled.

[BelleGirl21]

This is what I think is the biggest cause of decrease. People are bypassing marriage altogether.

[ThisAndThat]

I think a lot of it is due to mind controlled society coupled with a near non existent workforce.

[Anonymous]

There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics. Keep in mind that some people get married multiple times and have multiples divorces. Therefore, it is possible that only 30% of people have gotten divorced, but 50% of marriages end in divorce. Both can be true. How can this be? Because some people get divorced multiple times.

[Findesemana]

Even if divorce is high.. doesn't inval7date marriage...

[Anonymous]

Come to California, we have the biggest divorce rate. Too many stuck up people.

[Anonymous]

I"m pretty sure its not a myth...

[tOi_sOldier]

in my family the divorce rate is 0.1% lol