I am getting a lot of questions about this, both online and in real life, so I thought it might be therapeutic for me to gather my thoughts about this vexed subject. I do confess that I've been tuning out recently, due to a complete inability to influence events, and will readily admit that I'm regularly unsure what I would do, if that choice were mine, so this should be read, with that caveat in mind.
But... I am wondering if this whole fiasco might actually be going OK?
It is now clear to most involved parties that the EU, has massively overplayed its hand, especially by weaponising the Irish border. In this, I feel they've been encouraged by watching small crowds outside Parliament, waving the EU flag, and by their many personal interactions with Europhile British politicians. They have taken both of these groups to be far more representative of public opinion than they actually are.
Even the most partisan sections of the Remainer press now seem to be of the opinion that the EU will now have seen that the Barnier / Juncker strategy has failed somewhat, and the UK - to its credit - won’t be entirely bluffed in the bad deal game of poker - so the EU will make more concessions to move things forward.
The fact that whilst this is happening, the German economy has gone into technical recession, and Macron faces the next French Revolution, means that there is perhaps more commercial motivation for the EU leaders to look past their principles in the name of mutual economic growth. Then there's the fact that, despite all of the predictions of Project Fear, the British economy remains in growth, albeit sluggish growth. That's without getting into the ongoing problems that southern Europe faces as a consequence of its ill-advised membership of the euro, or the massive economic damage that the Irish government's stance has the potential to do to the Irish economy.
The thought of looming EU elections in May, and the potential farce of the UK sending perhaps 50 - 60 more Nigel Farages into the mix, also provides a helpful nudge in the direction of them finding a solution to move us away more quickly.
The pound has taken a big hit through all of this - but that’s the absolute beauty of a floating currency - it’s a shock absorber that provides balance to the economy and promotes British exports whilst all this has been hitting the fan.
Sometimes it takes time to bring people round.
Then domestically, you have a leader as universally derided as Corbyn trying to pull the rug from under the government (and frankly he's not a Remainer himself) - which, as events have proven, is highly unlikely to happen. Someone a bit more moderate and mainstream would be a real threat.
Looked at from a distance this might actually be a very fortunate set of circumstances. King Arthur is perhaps keeping watch over Albion after all...
It was always a total illusion to think that getting the country through anything like this would be clean and easy and without considerable risk and pain.
Has May somewhat sacrificed herself to buy time for all of this to play out and allow for a better deal? The long game to overcome the odds? Effectively that might be how it ends up.
If so and we get a visibly better deal that protects the economy whilst giving us more freedom and certainty - then perhaps in hindsight she will be remembered more fondly.
As usual - let’s see...
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