Will Russia always try to regain its "empire" and start again the conquests made by Peter the Great and the great Catherine II?

[Julie4]

De Gaulle wrote this in 1919, he seemed to think that there were permanencies in history...

Although we are today in a different world, especially the fact that there are nuclear weapons, do you think that despite everything Russia will always have these projects of conquest of its close neighbors?

"Bolshevism will not last forever in Russia. A day will come when order will be restored there and Russia, reconstituting her forces, will look around her. On that day, she will see herself as peace will leave her, that is to say, deprived of Estonia, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, and perhaps the Ukraine. Will she be satisfied with that? We do not believe so. The same causes producing the same effects, we will see Russia resume its march towards the West and the Southwest. On which side will Russia look for help to continue the work of Peter the Great, Catherine II? Let us not say it too loudly, but let us know and think about it...
De Gaulle "

[Anonymous]

For Russia its all about spheres of influence if not the former ex soviet and imperial states being part of Russia. Russia thought at the end of the cold war that the American hegemony would not encroach on its boarders and undermine its economic Intrests but this is exactly what happened with Poland joining NATO and Ukraine looking to and joining the EU and looking to America economically. Central asia is the next flash point, the region is rich in oil, gas and coal and because its a land locked region with Afghanistan to the south, Iran to the west, China to the east and Russia to the north. Central Asia's oil/gas industry is completely reliant on Russia's for exports meaning Russia sets the prices. America has an intrest here but is looking to find a way to access Central asia, some say this was the real reason for the invasion of Iraq because before 9/11 the clinton administration was negotiating with the Taliban for a pipeline from central asia running through Afghanistan into Pakistan and India. With the Biden administration having made peace with the Taliban this might actually be built after over 20 years of negotiating. Another proposed pipeline linking central asia to Europe make go ahead, it is to run from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan to Georgia to Turkey. If this is likely there may be yet another russian invasion of Georgia under a false pretext but it would really be to protect Russian oil profits. Russia may also threaten Central Asian countries before invading. Russia backed Assad in Syria because he refused to go along with America's oil/gas pipeline linking Oman with Turkey via Syria as this would undercut Russia's oil/gas profits with Europe.

If Ukraine and Georgia successfully join NATO and the EU this will mean most of the black sea region will be under the control of NATO and the possibility of a large NATO force in the black sea. It also encourages countries on its boarders to join NATO like Sweden and Finland as well as Central Asia.

Russian since the end of the Cold War has been getting a lot of its money from Oil/Gas as well as agricultural but those profits have not been put back into the economy building infrastructure, technology, agriculture, education, industry, military etc stuff that if invested in 30 years ago would have built long term wealth instead it was creamed off by the Oligarchs. It was the same situation with the Russian military, what was invested in updating and training the Russian military disappeared into the pockets of corrupt politicians and generals and weapons were sold off. Sure Russia could design and produce tanks on par with NATO but not in any real numbers that matter. Sure it has well trained proffessional troops but not in the numbers it needs. That's what we see in Ukraine. A Russian military that doesn't how to fight using cold war weapons and tactics from the 70s and the countries that once feared them in the west no longer does and nor do ex Russian empire/soviet states like Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc.

So Russia may have imperial ambitions but no longer has the means to carry them out. They've been shown to be weak and now there is blood in the water.

https://youtu.be/I5ZKivBYQYM

[RavVid]

I agree with your analysis of Central Asia and have similar thoughts. I don't have any source other than Zeihan but he is saying that if Siberian oil/gas fields don't produce there is a risk of damage due to water vapor freezing and says it took 30 years to restore after the fall of the USSR. I have not been able to find confirmation of his view.

If it is true then there is potentially a double hit from sanctions and Central Asian pipelines.

[Opinion Owner]

@RavVid putin has walked himself into a trap thst he can't get out of in Ukraine

[RavVid]

Indeed he has. He wasn't the only one who thought it would be a 3 day war and that Ukraine would collapse to be fair to him.

The problem is he has walked everybody into the same trap. There is no genuine possibility of a peace treaty as Russian hasn't honored any of the treaties before. So it is hard to expect Russia to abide by any new treaty.

The most that can be expected is that there will be a hiatus whilst Russia rebuilds it's army and fix it's manifest problems and rearms.

Whilst Germany and Japan were transformed into peaceful prosperous countries the same attempt has not worked with Russia and China and it now looks as though it never will.

Cold War II has to happen.

[Opinion Owner]

@RavVid the US has been studying Putin and the Russian military for years. They recognise putin is an intelligent man but he's only one man.

[RavVid]

Putin is only one man and if he is replaced it could become radically different. I think that is the implication of your comment - correct me if I am wrong. However there is cultural inertia and that changes slowly.

The Russian view is more aligned to their president being a strong man i. e an autocrat even if he is nominally elected. The President gives orders and direction and can never be wrong. Failures are due to underlings not properly implementing his orders.

Very different to the US where the president owns his mistakes and even more different to a parliamentary system where a Prime Minister might only last 50 days if they stuff up.

The deal in Russia is that the people leave politics to the politicians and oligarchs fall out of hospital windows whilst having a smoke. The Ruusian President backs up his position by having a coalition of junior strong men in a struggle with each other for power. Even his chef.

So if Putin dies tomorrow, the next strong man will come from the power group that is coalesced around Putin currently and I think we can be fairly certain they are of a similar mind to Putin.

I wouldn't look to any rainbows and unicorns.

[Opinion Owner]

@RavVid it's these strongmen and Oligarchs that keep Russia weak economically and militarily weak.

[Aerissa_Jade]

The sad truth is if the US and Russia became close allies they could accomplish much, but Russian people know and understand a lot of hardship and they often blame it on the west. They likely are blaming the west right now for the hardships caused by the Ukrainian war.

They don't seem to want freedom, as they changed their constitution and laws to allow Putin to remain forever, they seem to want a monarchy or dictatorship.

A leader that can send soldiers off to die endlessly.

They have no real power these days, other than threats of nuclear war. The only way they would ever get their old borders back would be to start a nuclear war.

[TheFlak38]

Russia will never stop committing genocide against its neighbouring nations. This is the most characteristic aspect of Russian identity since the birth of this nation. They were for 250 years under ruthless Mongol rule and have no idea how it is to have a leader that doesn't want to murder innocent people. Russian ideology dictates expansionism and genocide for centuries now. It started with the messianic fantasies of Philotheus in the late 15th century and continues today with the satanist Alexandr Dugin. From Ivan the terrible, to Joseph Stalin, to Vladimir Putin, we always see the same tactics, the same politics, the same attitude. Everything Putin is saying and doing is precisely what Dugin preaches with his hateful anti-European ideology. It's not a coincidence that every shit skin nation that hates Europe aligns itself with Russia while at the same time Dugin preaches the vision of a Eurasian Empire with Russia as God's chosen nation to lead it. If Russia wins the war against Ukraine they will simply prepare themselves for the next nation to exterminate. If Russia loses the war against Ukraine they will again prepare themselves for the offensive in the next 10 years. It doesn't stop because it's in their blood. Russia spends billions for propaganda and the armed forces that could have been used to improve the impoverished Russian people. The soviet mafia who rules however would never dare to do that. In their eyes the people must be so afraid and brainwashed that they would rather get off and get killed in some distant battlefield to satisfy their thirst for blood.

https://thuletide.wordpress.com/2022/02/24/alt-right-and-identitarian-links-to-aleksandr-dugin-tldr-version/

[RavVid]

I think so Julie4.

Catherine the Great said words to the effect that the only way to defend Russia's borders was to extend it's border. There are 7 traditional paths to invade Russia from the west. Kissinger and Mearsheimer argue real politik that Russia should be allowed buffer states to protect against that.

However it was either Gorbachev or Yelstin who said words to the effect 'why should we (Russians) be worried with USSR satellite states leaving since we have nuclear weapons'. A fairly sensible appraisal.

It does make some sense, in an old school way, for Russia to want to take it's borders up to the Carpathian mountains. But a very old school thought pattern.

I more agree with Alex Stubbs ( former Finnish foreign minister, Prime minister now academic) that it is dreams of empire that motivate Putin/Russia today. At the fall of USSR, it's satellite states could not have been keener to orientate to the west.

Somewhat insulting to Russia and I think that is the thing. Putin resented Ukraine teaching Ukrainian in schools instead of Russian.

When it comes down to it, the Age of Empire only ended in 1945. Only 78 years ago at most. Dreams of Empire are still seductive. To not only Putin but to the Russian people from what I have seen on video questions. They really do have a sense of entitlement to own the border states. Even without Putin I would be certain that a subsequent Russian strong man will have restoring the Empire as the objective.

[Julie4]

I really appreciate this opinion, and moreover quoting Kissinger, the greatest diplomat of the XXth century.

Indeed it seems that Putin pursues objectives that are far beyond the simple desire for security.

Maybe Putin is also a bit paranoid in thinking that the Westerners want to dismantle Russia, and he must have also read Brzeziński who wrote this: "Without Ukraine," writes Brzeziński, "Russia ceases to be an Empire and becomes a country again.

Let me make you a confidense, sometimes I dream of the return to the Napoleonic empire so I understand the Russians 😂

[RavVid]

Interesting quote from Brzezinski. I'm inclined to take it means that Ukraine is the jewel in the crown of the Russian Empire. I have tried - still trying - to understand the Russian Federal system. There aren't many real Russians but there is a complicated system of federation of several levels covering several ethnicity's. When the word Russia is used it is not immediately obvious to me whether it is the Russian Federation or Russia proper that is being referred to. I think the Russian Federation is still technically an empire without Ukraine. but it is what Russians think that is most significant.

I'm not so sure you understanding the Napoleonic Empire or me the British Empire in anyway helps us understand the Russians at all. Is Russia Eurasian, Asian or European is unsolved in Russia itself it seems.

I'm pretty sure McKinder's heartland theory is taken quite seriously in Moscow and the war in Ukraine is part of that geopol view/strategy. It doesn't matter if this 19th century theory is accurate or not but it does matter if it is thought to be in the kremlin.

[RavVid]

Have you noticed the stupid way Russian solders cock their head to the side and gaze upwards as though they are beholding something so magnificent they cannot directly gaze at it? Putin is certainly into imperial trappings. In that liking he certainly looks back to the past and I would suggest seeks to carry the imperial past into the future with himself as a pseudo emperor.

Something of a Napoleon I and III play perhaps. We can understand that.

Maybe Putin is not so much paranoid that the West seeks to dismantle Russia but realistic that he needs to keep the Russian Federation together. The CSTO certainly seems to be fraying at the edges. If Kazakhstan could develop the Trans Caspian Pipeline to the west it would be a huge plus for Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and a huge blow to Mother Russia. On a number of fronts. Those countries would become wealthier and their production would make Russia poorer. Plus there is a possibility of damage to Siberian oil/gas fields due to water vapor freezing. Having instability in the area discouraging investment is a boon to Russia.

I think there is little chance we can understand Putin's thinking and priorities to be honest. But I fear there maybe canons to the left of us and canons to the right of us for quite some time.

[Soteris]

In one of my earlier takes I talked about the factors leading up to the Ukraine war. One of those factors is that Russia is not geographically stable/secure. It lacks geographically defensible features like mountains or rough terrains leading into Europe which makes its borders uncertain and easy to invade. This has been the fear behind Russian aggression since the beginning of the nation and pretty much its entire purpose has been to expand outwards in search for these barriers and, failing that, to put as much "empty space" between its heartland and its borders to do such things as scorched earth tactics.

As such its not really that Ukraine and other parts of the former Soviet Union represents the empire that Russia now pushes for, its that it represents the secure borders it feels it desperately needs as I think Ukraine alone would close 2 of its weak borders leaving only a few more open.

[RealMarek]

Russia is not going to try to rebuild its empire. It has no intention of invading Finland, Poland, or even the Baltic States. Although if Lithuania blockades Kaliningrad, it might just provoke the bear next door a bit too much. The US, on the other hand, has NGOs committed to regime change in Russia and the breakup of Russia into numerous small, weak states that would be easily exploited by Western corporations. The Russians aren’t stupid. They don’t want a repeat of the 1990s.

[RyanEC]

I think they want to return to the old Soviet boarders because there is a feeling that that was when they were at their peak, but I think if NATO wasn’t so hostile they wouldn’t be so hostile to their western influenced neighbors.

[Aerissa_Jade]

NATO is a defensive alliance, they aren't a offensive, they are not hostile. When have they ever invaded or attacked Russia?

[RyanEC]

I am simply trying to see the Russian point of view despite being American.
From the Russian point of view NATO is encircling them.

If we want a peaceful way out of this we need to understand the Russian point of view.

[Aerissa_Jade]

Understandable, I get it, they want to be able to invade their neighbors, former parts of the soviet union and not have them protected by treaties that will dictate a response from NATO.

From their point of view, they think they should have the ultimate say on it, as it is their borders and those countries shouldn't have the freedom to join NATO.

Although, treaties with Russia are pointless, they don't honor them anyways. As they totally ignored the Budapest Memorandum.

No country should trust Russia in any future treaty ever.

[RyanEC]

What is your solution that doesn’t involve nuclear war?

[Julie4]

I find this argument irrelevant, Russia has already invaded these territories while NATO does not exist

[Aerissa_Jade]

@Julie4 You mean in the last decade? or centuries ago?

@RyanEC I say give Ukraine chemical/biological weapons and let them set them off in Russian population centers, in terrorist attacks, give Ukraine back nukes, since Russia isn't following the treaty that got them to give them up.

We should not live free and happy while rape is being used as a weapon of war in Ukraine.

I say escalate with no limit, it until they surrender or the world is destroyed, no backing down. As mankind doesn't deserve to exist if they allow such things to happen as a weapon of war. We should be wiped out for what is happening there right now.

[Guy13]

Yes as that’s why they are attacking. Soviet Union map….

[msc545]

I think the Russians have enough internal problems that they don't need to rebuild an old Empire for any reason at all. If you want to see Empire Building in action just pay attention to what the United States has been doing ever since World War ii.

[Dargil]

No. They neither have the financial or military power.

[OddBeMe]

Yes. We should invade the steppes on foot and I guarantee we’ll win by summer. No need for winter gear.

[Anonymous]

From what I can see, it's been American policy for many years to keep the Russians contained. At the moment, looks like they have a point.

[Asking_for_knowledge]

Lets face it, if the nato stopped poking around, russia wouldn’t have taken Ukraine back

[PraviteliNahuiValite]

Every big news is planned decades ahead.. russia-ukraine "war" is a ritual carried out between the same conspiring trannies.
The same way communism and nazism were two masks of the same face...

[Asking_for_knowledge]

@PraviteliNahuiValite I agree, wise explanation

[RavVid]

Lets face it. After USSR fell the USSR satellite nations ran as fast they could to get out of Russian influence. It wasn't so much NATO seeking new members but former Soviet block countries seeking to be part f Europe.

There is a distinct difference between the two.

[Jamie05rhs]

Probably. That's why we need to cut off their arm and teach them a painful lesson.

[Dav1dTh0ma389]

That's what Putin is currently trying to do, unsuccessfully that it, thank god

[Anonymous]

It sure as hell seems to look like they want to do that.

[Opinion Owner]

Putin's even mentioned that.

[Pohjolan]

Not always but eventually.

[Anonymous]

No they will Hever do that again

[Danny_dan92]

No clue