Why I Believe 2016/2017 Are Poised To Being Amongst The Worst Years Of Your Life - (Part 2 of 2)

The Crash Continues...

Why I Believe 2016/2017 Are Poised To Being Amongst The Worst Years Of Your Life - My Last MyTake (Part 2 of 2)

Click here for Part I. Also as a side note, I've decided to allow comments on this. In Part I i stated that i was closing comments, as my intention was simply to put this out as simply a warning, but I changed my mind. Feel free to discuss, but I've disabled anonymous posting.


Now where were we?

Ah yes...we had just looked at two previous financial crashes in the USA, making the argument that a third is on our doorstep which has so far displayed similar patterns to the previous two. Lets fast forward to today, again eight years since the last crash (keep in mind that the distance between the 2000 and 2008 crash was also 8 years and the fact that the U.S. tends to have a recession every 6 to 8 years). What is the current situation, and how far along are we in the four step pattern I outlined in Part I? Well firstly as I’ve stated, the problem begins when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates while simultaneously lying about it to the general public. The link and video that i posted at the beginning of Part I should now start to make some sense as to why i put them there. Lets take a look at them again. The federal reserve has now decided to raise interest rates for the first time since the last bubble they sought to pop back in 2006 - 2008 (Step 1). They do this, while lying to peoples face about any potential dangers, seen in the video below (Step 2):


(Note: Janet Yellen, the woman in the video, is currently the new head of the Federal Reserve, and in the video she quite clearly claims that there is no bubble in the equity market, which is another term for the stock market)



As per tradition, Janet Yellen, the new head of the Federal Reserve goes on TV and lies to people, saying that the stock market is not overvalued and the U.S. economy is not overhyped. She says this all while former associates who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve are saying that a bubble in the stock/equity markets obviously exists. Again, i link to the recent interview of a former member of the Fed, Richard Fisher (which i posted at the beginning of Part I) stating quite plainly that not only does a bubble exist, it is also set to burst:


This time, the bubble is in corporate debt. Corporations borrowed too much money while interest rates were kept low by the Federal Reserve (ironically, the federal reserve creates the problem, then rushes in as the saviour to “fix” it every time), and now that they are over-encumbered with debt, they are fracturing at the seams.


So steps one and two are already here. What is the step three external shock to the system this time? This time, it’s China. What’s going on in China?


From The Economist:


The CSI 300, an index of the country’s biggest stocks, fell by 7%, the worst-ever start to a year for Chinese markets. Small-cap stocks fared even worse, many falling by the daily maximum of 10%. Monday was the first day of operation for new “circuit breakers”—automatic 15-minute pauses in trading whenever the CSI 300 swings up or down by 5%. These are intended to restore calm when the markets are in a frenzy. No such luck: less than ten minutes after trading resumed following the first such pause, the index fell by another two percentage points. That triggered another circuit breaker, prompting a suspension in trading for the remainder of the day.


Since the middle of last year, the Chinese markets have been tanking. China is the second largest economy in the world, so when it falters, we all falter due to the interconnectedness brought about by globalization. The Chinese stock market lost 3.2 Trillion U.S. dollars last year alone. To put that in perspective, the GDP of the whole United Kingdom is only 2.6 Trillion U.S. dollars.


Here’s more information on the crash since the middle of last year:



Some thought that the beginning of this year would be better, and that the crash in China would not affect the U.S. economy. They were wrong. it has been a bloodbath:


China is taking down the world, starting with the U.S.. A whole one trillion dollars has already been lost from the U.S. economy since December of 2015.

Imagine how much damage there will be by the end of the year if the U.S. has already lost $1 trillion in a single month. Now, for those of you sitting comfortably in the UK, Canada, Germany or elsewhere who thinks that this is America’s and China’s problem, I’d think again. Because America is the largest economy in the world, all major world markets follow the U.S. market. Where America goes, so goes the rest of the world. Take a look at this chart of the S&P500, which to remind you is used as a representation of the U.S. economy as a whole:

Notice the pattern and how it seems to have already topped out and begun rolling over (the black area i've circled) into a negative trajectory for 2016. That's the effect China's current catastrophy has already had on the U.S. economy since the beginning of the year, and we aren't even through January yet. Now take a look at the FTSE 100, which is the UK equivalent to the S&P500 in America, except the FTSE looks at the top 100 companies for the UK, which is used to gauge the general health of the UK stock market and economy as a whole. Do you see a familiar pattern?

Yep, they are following the U.S. markets down the rabbit hole too, and they've been following the pattern of the U.S. markets since the year 2000.

What about the Germans? Surely with their powerful industrial capacity, they aren’t following the U.S. to its grave right? Well lets take a look at the DAX, which is the German equivalent to the S&P500

Hmm, okay...guess the germans are out. How about Canada? Surely my fellow Canadians are holding out right? Our economy is said to be one of the soundest in the world, as our banks had managed to stay strong in 2008 unlike those in the USA. Well, lets take a look at the TSX, which is our equivalent to the S&P500.


Since the start of the year, Canada has been down and trending downwards, Germany is down and trending downwards, the UK is down and trending downwards, and pretty much all the major economies in the world are down and trending downwards (if i had more space, i'd show you the charts here), following the same three hill (boom then bust) pattern of the S&P500 in the USA, as they did in 2008 and 2000. When the U.S. crashed in 2000, everyone felt it. When the U.S. crashed in 2008, everyone felt it to an even greater degree. What do you think will happen this third time around? Because of globalization and the interconnectedness of the world economy and trade, we're all essentially in this together.


What is coming is known as a deflationary crash, and this crash is poised to be one of the worst in recorded history, which i don’t have enough space to fully detail as to why here. Thankfully though, there is a great video which explains why this is setting up to be one of the most severe market crashes in recent history. In short, its because a lot of cycles are converging downwards right now, all at the same time. These cycles include the baby boomers retiring, the wealth distribution cycle, the stock market cycle, and other cycles that are beginning a downward momentum

Best/most relevant part starts at 18:40 but i encourage watching of the whole video as it explains everything quite eloquently:


My personal opinion is that given how severe this next chapter in world stability/order is going to look, movements like 3rd wave feminism and BLM are going to have a hard time surviving in my view. Economics trumps everything. The amount of social upheaval this may cause is worrisome, because feminism won't be the only casualty of this. In any case, there are several ways in which you can prepare (and even profit) for what’s coming. Here is a quick rundown:

  1. Accumulate savings in U.S. dollars. i don't care if you live in Canada, Austrailia or the Eurozone and the exchange rate between your currency and the U.S. dollar is the worst it has ever been. If you think the exchange rate is bad now, wait until your currency falls another 25% against the U.S. dollar. You'll be wishing you had those dollars then.
  2. Get out of/avoid debt. If you were thinking of taking an auto loan to get a new car, don't. If you were thinking of getting a mortgage to move into your first home/condo, don't. If you have credit card debt, prioritize paying it off before going on that vacation you've been planning for years. Don't sulk, just do it.
  3. Consider building up a small stockpile of canned food. No need to go full on Doomsday Prepper with this, but there's no harm in having a little stored in the cupboards.
  4. If and only if you've accomplished #1, #2 and #3, consider buying gold. No, not jewelry. I'm talking investment grade gold bars/coins. i have no time/space to explain why here, but I'll refer you to a previous myTake i wrote where i explain the necessity of it. Search my profile for a myTake i wrote some time ago title "The Age of Men is Over - Part III", and scroll to the bottom half of it for an explanation of gold's key role today.
  5. If you are savvy with investing and have a brokerage account already, you can attempt to do what I'm doing right now, which is taking some money and buying ETF's on the New York Stock Exchange...in particular, ETF's which go up in value when the markets go down.


Much of what I write is written with this crash scenario in mind, because its something i and others have seen coming for several years now. Some of my previous takes are no exception. The reason why this will be my last myTake for a while is that I'll be very busy working alongside other investors that i collaborate with in order to properly navigate whats coming, and come out the other end winning. A few months ago, I wrote a MyTake titled “Why I believe Republicans like Donald Trump have zero chance of becoming the next president of the USA in 2016” I made an argument based on the recent history of U.S. elections, why someone like Donald Trump had a very uphill battle to fight if he actually wanted to win the general election (i wasn't talking about the republican primary). I had one caveat in it though which i intentionally left there in the event that signs started to show this economic crash began to rear its ugly head. My caveat was that barring a cataclysmic event, Donald Trump would probably loose. This looming crash however is the kind of cataclysmic event that caused Republicans to get curb stomped by Obama in 2008. The economic crash that Bush presided over, which we now know was in part created by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, cost Republicans that election, and could cost Democrats the 2016 election if it happens on Obamas watch. Donald Trump knows this, which is why in 2015 (unbeknownst to most) he began screaming from the hilltops about how he felt Janet Yellen was intentionally not raising interest rates in order to help the democrats.


Obviously he was wrong, but this take should help elucidate the story behind that debacle between Trump and Yellen last year.


The last video i will leave is one by a prominent guy in the manosphere called Sandman. I make it a point of mine to listen to whats going on in both feminist and male circles, as i believe in the philosophy of listening to all but following none. One day, i was listening to a video he made about his experiences in eastern Europe during its economic collapse, and it succinctly outlines why guys really should stop hyperventilating at the mere mention of feminism, or how seemingly difficult they feel it is to date in today's environment. If you're prepared for what's coming, all other things will come to you. There would be less guys complaining on here if they knew the full extent of what was coming and how to take advantage of it in a way that benefits them. This is why I don't participate much in these gender war issues, as my radar detects bigger fish. My great eye is fixed on Gondor, not the shire. Now note...I am not a MGTOW, MRA and definitely not a feminist, but when i pick up on information that peaks my curiosity from one camp or the other, I take note of it..and you should too:



Need I say more?

Cheers,

Watermelonoma


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What Girls Said 2

  • There is no possible way for me to sound "intelligent" after reading these two takes; nonetheless, i'll offer what little I know about the topic.

    You've already mentioned how the Canadian dollar has plummeted. Yeah, we've all felt that - right down to the stupid cauliflower that's now triple the price it used to be. But that does improve certain industries, doesn't it? the US dollar is more valuable, and thus Americans are more likely to travel to Canada for shopping/vacation. So not every industry will suffer terribly.
    As a Canadian, you already know about the perpetually rising housing prices, especially in Toronto and Vancouver. You said to avoid debt, which is where I do disagree - it's not a simple "avoid all" kind of thing.
    My parents recently bought a house in Toronto, aware of the current financial situation, but also knowing the housing market is still hot. The closing date for the house they bought 6 months ago is in July '16, and as of today, the value of that home is 128% of what they bought it for. Although unstable, the housing market is still rising. There's only so much land after all, and investing it in housing is still sustainable.

    Now globalization depends on the success of each economy. China's stocks have fared terribly, and thus the rest of the world has felt the impact, just as you said. I'm Chinese, and so family/friends invest in Chinese stocks. Prior to the end of December, everything was going well, as long as one managed to avoid little dips. Then things took a turn for the worse, and even circuit breakers didn't help. They have only gotten lower since, and have shown no sign of improvement. All in all, I agree with you 100% that the global financial situation in 2016 won't be good.

    As to the cans of food - I don't think those will be necessary. As long as people take advantage of sales and spend wisely, the economy shouldn't reach "Great Depression" levels - we're hopefully too modern for that.
    Though I do agree on investing in gold bouillon. The price of gold has always been rising, and it's an asset that isn't affected by deflation of a particular currency.

    Somehow you managed to relate feminism, elections, and stocks all together... I don't know how, but thanks for the really informative read.

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    • Well i'm surprised you read the whole thing, lol.

      The problem with housing markets when they go into bubbles is that when they burst, they become very illiquid very quickly... meaning that they become very difficult to sell when the house of cards comes burning down. Looking at how housing crashed in the U. S., in hindsight its easy to say "well once it got to a certain price, i would've pulled out"... but when you're in the middle of an overvalued market in real time, its very difficult to know when it will come down. The problem with Canada now is that with the fall of oil and commodity prices, Canada is suffering big time. We are a big commodity exporter, especially oil. All oil producers are getting hammered at the moment, and we've already lost a ton of jobs because of it. So my outlook for Canada isn't too great honestly. As for Americans coming to Canada, yes you may get some of that. The problem though is that Americans don't have much in terms of disposable income

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    • and if you watched the last video i posted, you'll understand even more why im looking forward to it from a dating perspective

    • ahhh I'll check out the vid when im not supposed to be studying for exams :P

  • Wow very factual... Great take as usual 😊

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    • No seeiously they will start robbing the rich and break into shops for stuff and cash...

    • well yeah, i do see some of that happening. In some places it has already happened

What Guys Said 4

  • Very interesting, man. Thanks! :)

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  • Wow this is fascinating/terrifying lol. Did you teach yourself economics?

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    • i did yeah. i find it quite fascinating

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    • How much time would you say you spend researching that stuff on average per day?

    • not much. maybe an hour or two. But i've been looking into this stuff for several years now, so the knowledge accumulates slowly

  • After looking into it I do think this convinces me that The End is Nigh... It's going to crash and is inevitable, there's absolutely no real possible way to actually even fix or reverse it.

    You got a doomsday bunker or fallout shelter of some kind well stocked and prepared should and when another great depression becomes a reality? Just to delay the inevitable and survive even a bit longer than those that aren't so well equipped and prepared? If not, oh well. Enjoy whatever time you got left and don't think too much and dwell on it.

    Then the worst part comes, like history before, a great depression will then be followed by something that will eventually spark a full scale global military conflict. World War 3 is inevitable and will occur from all this if that pattern from our world's history is indeed true, I could only hope that it never does but neither you or I would have any control over that.

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    • im not entirely sure how bad it will actually get. I don't think it will get so bad that you'll need a bunker, but it will definitely be bad enough to cause social unrest.

    • I really hope it somehow doesn't turn into some real apocalyptic nightmare. But we never know. Big things always have small beginnings.

  • I still don't really understand why its best to accumulate US dollars. won't the US be hurt the most?

    Also, is the next part to the"Roller Coaster Crash" video free to watch?

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    • Sure, ill try to explain. What we're going into right now is called a deflationary crash. Deflation is caused when the money supply contracts. Basically, there is less currency floating around. There is less currency around in the economy because debt levels are so high, and instead of taking that money and spending it in the general economy, people and corporations are taking a large amount of that money and paying down debt, or they are hoarding their cash and not spending much of it because of fears of a slowdown in the global economy. Global trade has fallen substantially, and in that environment, people are too afraid to expand their business, which would require them to take their money and buy raw materials for goods and such. So since there is less cash around in the general economy, its value rises... just as if you have less of any item, its value would be higher than if you had more of it.

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    • isn't it possible that something else could replace the US dollar as the reserve currency?

      Also I googled Mike Maloney and found this
      www.pragcap.com/.../

    • yes, there is already a currency in the works to do that when the time comes. Its called the SDR. Also, what did you want me to say about that link? There isn't a single financial analyst who doesn't have someone who disagrees with them. I've never heard of this guy and his blog, but not every claims of a "debunk" really is. For one thing, gold has risen 300% since the year 2000, basically demolishing most other asset classes, including stocks. If mike maloney is so wrong, then one should ask this guy why gold has managed to do so well over the last 15 years.

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