When do you think the next big global recession is going to happen?

[Lynx122]

The last financial crisis in 2008 was a long time ago so by 2017/18 I was on the lookout for signs it was going to happen again. Debt was high again so there could've been another crisis where people defaulted on loans and it caused a chain reaction but nothing happened. Then Covid came in 2019 and I thought for sure now this will be the trigger that causes everything to go up in smoke but no they just borrowed more money. They kept interest rates low way longer than any responsible person would do it. Now inflation is a problem too. I'm just wondering if they keep try and artificially get out of a crisis at some point the walls will be closing in on all sides and there will be no escape anymore.

The question is, wouldn't it be worth it to face a smaller problem earlier instead of punting it down the road and see when this time bomb blows up. I heard somewhere that soon the interest on the national debt alone will be bigger than the entire military budget. And that itself already includes a lot of wasteful spending. Right now I don't even feel like I can predict anymore when there will be another crash because the government will try to step in to try and stop anything bad happening. In theory you can keep doing that for ever until the debt can't be repaid and the dollar is worthless. Of course they won't want it to go that far. But it's practically impossible to judge when they think the right time is to step on the brake economically and stop mortgaging the future for today.

I feel like every economic principal has pretty much been thrown out the window in the last 20 years and now people in charge just do what they feel like doing. Whatever will cause them the least grief and get people off their ass that's the right decision. Doesn't matter if it's actually smart thing to do when you look at the big picture, we don't do that anymore.

In the next 5 years

Between 5 and 10 years in the future

Between 10 and 15 years in the future

Between 15 and 20 years in the future

More than 20 years

Never

[DJB72]

Most countries are in recession or at least stagnant since Covid. A full global recession will probably hit in the next 5 years with the possibility of a full on repeat of the Great Depression of the 1920s after that when the world realises the "strongest" economy - the Dollar - is propped up by debt.

With Zimbabwe moving to a gold-backed currency in the last few weeks and other African countries doing the same thing sooner or later Africa will overtake the USA as it wakes up with sanity about gender the norm and the realisation that the West is totally dependent on their continent for every advantage they have.

Frankly if it wasn't for the embarrassment of the ANC since Mbeki was forced out of office and Zuma took over, South Africa would already be stronger than the USA as every element on the periodic table is found naturally and abundantly within it's borders. Run properly, they don't need the West - as proven by the sanctions that the UN imposed during Apartheid. All the country actually needs is an education system that works and in 15 years it'll be the strongest economy on the planet.

Unfortunately, Cyril is proving to be as incompetent and impotent to deal with the corruption that riddled the country under Zuma. He's set to fuck the education system over by embracing gender dysphoria as "normal" instead of the psychiatric illness it is and force it to be taught from kindergarten.

All of which is just going to help accelerate the collapse of the economy, and probably take half Africa down in a domino effect.

[Lynx122]

No the people in power will never let Africa take over didn't you see what they did to Libya and Syria? South Africa is falling apart on its own. The U. S. has troops all over Africa they're not just going to sit there and welcome a new world order. I'm talking about even if every African government gets their shit together and they all want to work together for the good of Africa and its people the west will still undermine it sabotage it or declare war, they won't accept it. I think you're naiive.

[DJB72]

I live in South Africa. Trust me, a billion African people - not politicians - have had enough of the oppression of the West.

I'm English so I'll allude to the history I'm most familiar with...

King John didn't expect the commoners to force the Magna Carta on him in 1215

Richard III didn't expect to lose the Wars of the Roses or to be killed in battle in 1485

Edward I - "Longshanks" - and his son, Edward II didn't expect to be routed from Scotland by William Wallace and Robert the Bruce in war from 1297 to 1328 when Edward II REALLY didn't see his assassination coming - a red hot poker thrust up his backside and cauterising the wound as it made them. Not a pleasant way to go.

The news today doesn't report what's happening in the townships of South Africa. And the US may have troops across the continent, but I guarantee there are more Africans than there are marines or SEAL teams.

And America has a tendency to lose ideological wars - Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan just as a start.

I'm many things, but naïve ain't one of them.

[Lynx122]

So South Africa can't run their own power grid but you think they're gonna run the world? I'm doubtful. I just don't think big shifts in power are as achievable as they used to be. In the past you could storm a castle and take control of a whole area. But today everything is so complex economic competition and warfare have a lot of aspects. It takes a lot more to change the power balance. Having resources in your ground is like having the ring at the start of lord of the rings you still have to go on a huge journey and unlike the story your success is not guaranteed.

[DJB72]

The problem is the corruption at the top. In 1994 the people toppled Apartheid, why should 2024 be any different?

And the "castle" was never the issue. History shows it was the corrupt fool IN the castle. Charles 1st, Louix whatever in France, all it takes is a clean shot. Just ask RFK Jr if you don't believe me.

If it was managed competently industry in South Africa is already in place thanks to the sanctions in the 80s. Manufacturing areas for everything from clothing to munitions - including nuclear.

Unfortunately the current lot are like leaving the dumbest orc in Saruman's forces in charge of Isengard...

[exitseven]

it will be soon. Credit card debt is at record numbers. The economy is slowing down. Inflation is high and so are interest rates. The governments answer is to keep printing money. What happens when people decide to just default on their loans? What if they decide to stop paying their mortgages? The banks cannot foreclose on everyone. They cannot drag everyone into court.

[exitseven]

Thanks for the MHO😎

[molonski2]

Its a long way off , unless China decide they wish to try and triggar one , but this is looking opposite , the " debt crisis " well the can will just keep getting kicked down the road , the Dow is now again a viable index , because of the magnificent 7 , and there is so much scope there..

Look , it will happen at some point , probably 15 - 20 years , interesting you use 2008 as an example ( as you should ) , in Australia during this time , if you didn't follow markets as I do ( which is most there ) , there was just no affect , property boomed and all was great , I appreciate it was tougher for my US friends..

But , what a time that was to make some money $$$$$ , and you need those times in essence from time to time , believe in America , and believe that China wants to keep lifting people to a better lifestyle , and we are talking 20 years.

[Lynx122]

The economy in he U. S. outside of these 7 companies is stagnant or in recesssion so you're beting on 7 huge companies who are already valued at more than they're worth to keep growing for 15-20 years without any pause or problems that's very optimistic in my view but it's your money :). And China has their own problems too, it might not matter what they want to do.

[DrPepper12]

China n India population has peaked. Less consumers and labor for the community ng future. Add in unstable regions, inequality, privatization, disruptive tech like AI and rising nationalism/militarism and you have quite the geo-political time bomb.

[OtterMan68]

Who was president in 2020 when that spike happened?

[Lynx122]

That was all the covid relief money I heard a lot of people scammed that. Trump was president.

[Anonymous]

Depends on the election

Republicans will kick it down the road or trying to balance the books at least partially
If Joey gets us he'll call Xi and be like I need to retire to Biden island do you want buy America and Xi will jump at the chance to formulate the USCCP

[AngryCarl]

The UK is in recession already. Leading the world again!

[Lynx122]

Yes thank you great job :)

[relax24]

Judging off a graph the next big problem could happen somewhere in the next 5 years

[strateguy632]

NOW wtf don't you notice or try to cover for joe china. the hell? 🤒?

[NathanDavis]

next weekend

[Lynx122]

lol I hope not it's starting to get warmer and I'm feeling good :)

[Agape93]

In a couple years

[thegreenyogi]

Soon.