Over the weekend, Hillary Clinton dominated the territories of the United States' Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. While these weren't the most important contests, it did help Hillary Clinton inch her way to the nomination.
The problem is, Bernie Sanders, and many of his supporters are still in denial. The harsh truth is, Bernie Sanders needs roughly 72 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to pass Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates. IF he were to do this, he could finally convince all 548 of Hillary's Superdelegates on side, AND the 100+ uncommitted Superdelegates on his side. Quite frankly, it's almost certain not to happen. A huge chunk of the remaining delegates are in New Jersey, and California-Two racially diverse states. So far, Bernie Sanders struggles among African-American, and Latino voters-Who make up nearly half of the voters in New Jersey, and California. And let's not even get into New Mexico, where over half of the Democratic voters will be Latino. Sure, we can project he will dominate North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana(similar to the other "Great Plains" states in the west), but those states are so small in population, it will hardly impact anything. And even if he were to pull of this miracle, that doesn't automatically mean the Superdelegates will abandon Hillary Clinton, and go to Bernie Sanders.
So, I hope I've convinced you that Bernie Sanders has virtually no chance of passing Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates. As of right now, Hillary Clinton needs less than 20 delegates to clinch the nomination. The first polls to close on June Seventh are in New Jersey-And even if she lost there, she would clinch it. So, why is Bernie Sanders, and some of his supporters in denial? Because their argument is simple:
"Superdelegates don't count until the convention"
And they are absolutely right. But that still doesn't mean she won't clinch it on June Seventh, and eventually be the official Democratic Nominee. Why? I'll explain.
Hillary Clinton won't be the first candidate to clinch the Democratic Nomination with the help of Superdelegates.
I don't know if Bernie Sanders realizes this, but when the news channels call for Hillary Clinton to be the Presumptive Nominee on June Seventh, INCLUDING Superdelegates in the total, it won't be the first time they did this. In the 1984 Democratic Nomination, Walter Mondale clinched the Democratic nomination with the help of Superdelegates-Which just happened to be the first year the Superdelegates were implemented. Also, in 2008-The last time there was a contested Democratic Nomination-Barack Obama needed to help of superdelegates to defeat Hillary Clinton(ironically). Which, baffles me-Can Bernie Sanders not remember 2008? It was just eight years ago.
I couldn't find a video of Walter Mondale clinching the 1984 Democratic Nomination, but below is a video of when CNN declared Barack Obama the Presumptive Democratic Nominee in 2008. I remember watching this, and I don't remember the Hillary Clinton supporters-Or anyone else for that matter-Saying it 'didn't count" that he clinched the nomination. If you pause the video at 0:16, you'll see he didn't have enough pledged delegates alone to win the nomination.
For the record, pledged delegates don't vote until the convention either.
Hillary Clinton is winning every way you look at it
Another argument by the Bernie Sanders campaign is the notion that Hillary is "only" winning because of Superdelegates. As I already explained, this clearly isn't true-She will certainly have more pledged delegates than Bernie Sanders. But let's pretend delegates didn't exist at all.
With her wins in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, she will now have more contests won than Bernie Sanders(even if Bernie Sanders won the remaining seven contests). Hillary Clinton is winning the popular vote by a 55 percent to 44 percent margin-By roughly 2.5 million votes, and unless something bizarre happens, she will have the popular vote total won. She is also winning a wider range of voters. Hillary dominates among women of all races, and ages, Blacks, and Latinos(in general), where as Bernie Sanders dominates among Caucasian men, but struggles with minorities(in general), women(in general). Hillary Clinton has even won more contests in which independent voters can vote in.
(The popular vote total is actually a smaller margin than shown in the photo and this is slightly out-dated, but I included Caucus totals as well).
The General Election poll argument is weak
A big argument from the Bernie camp right now is that he "beats Donald Trump in bigger margins than Hillary Clinton does, according to General Election polls." And they are correct: Bernie Sanders polls better for the General Election than Hillary Clinton does. The problem is, General Election polls are unreliable-And polls in general can't predict the future.
In 2012, Romney was leading Obama in General Election polls. In 2008, McCain had a ten point lead on Obama in some General Election polls. Kerry was expected to beat George W. Bush Jr. in 2004, Al Gore lead Bush Jr. in nearly every poll in 2000, and in 1988, Michael Dukakis had a massive 18 percentage point lead over George H. W. Bush Sr. You get the point here: General Election polls are all over the place. In this nomination alone, we saw Hillary Clinton with a 22 percentage point polling average lead over Bernie Sanders going into the Michigan Democratic Primary, and she still lost that contest.
And for the record, Hillary Clinton is still leading Donald Trump in every "Swing-State" poll, and virtually every General Election poll. Part of the reason why Bernie Sanders polls better is due to the fact Republicans haven't been attacking him, because they've known Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee. If Bernie Sanders were to convince the Superdelegates to give him the nomination, this would enrage the Hillary Clinton supporters, and many of them would refuse to vote for him.
Needless to say, it's not easy predicting the future.
So, can Bernie win? Of course he can-And I can flip a coin 20 times, and it land on tails every time. The Braves, and Twins can face off in the World Series this year. People who like big butts can lie. And Donald Trump can be chivalrous.
-Like I said, Bernie Sanders can pull off the mathematical miracle, and overpass Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates.
-Something crazy can happen: Like Hillary Clinton getting indicted, dying, or another bizarre incident.
-Hillary Clinton can drop out-Which, I can't think of one reason why she would.
Most Helpful Opinions