#Brexit - where I think we may be...

I am getting a lot of questions about this, both online and in real life, so I thought it might be therapeutic for me to gather my thoughts about this vexed subject. I do confess that I've been tuning out recently, due to a complete inability to influence events, and will readily admit that I'm regularly unsure what I would do, if that choice were mine, so this should be read, with that caveat in mind.

But... I am wondering if this whole fiasco might actually be going OK?

It is now clear to most involved parties that the EU, has massively overplayed its hand, especially by weaponising the Irish border. In this, I feel they've been encouraged by watching small crowds outside Parliament, waving the EU flag, and by their many personal interactions with Europhile British politicians. They have taken both of these groups to be far more representative of public opinion than they actually are.

They don't speak for as many people as Juncker thinks...
They don't speak for as many people as Juncker thinks...

Even the most partisan sections of the Remainer press now seem to be of the opinion that the EU will now have seen that the Barnier / Juncker strategy has failed somewhat, and the UK - to its credit - won’t be entirely bluffed in the bad deal game of poker - so the EU will make more concessions to move things forward.

The fact that whilst this is happening, the German economy has gone into technical recession, and Macron faces the next French Revolution, means that there is perhaps more commercial motivation for the EU leaders to look past their principles in the name of mutual economic growth. Then there's the fact that, despite all of the predictions of Project Fear, the British economy remains in growth, albeit sluggish growth. That's without getting into the ongoing problems that southern Europe faces as a consequence of its ill-advised membership of the euro, or the massive economic damage that the Irish government's stance has the potential to do to the Irish economy.

The thought of looming EU elections in May, and the potential farce of the UK sending perhaps 50 - 60 more Nigel Farages into the mix, also provides a helpful nudge in the direction of them finding a solution to move us away more quickly.

The pound has taken a big hit through all of this - but that’s the absolute beauty of a floating currency - it’s a shock absorber that provides balance to the economy and promotes British exports whilst all this has been hitting the fan.

Sometimes it takes time to bring people round.

Then domestically, you have a leader as universally derided as Corbyn trying to pull the rug from under the government (and frankly he's not a Remainer himself) - which, as events have proven, is highly unlikely to happen. Someone a bit more moderate and mainstream would be a real threat.

Looked at from a distance this might actually be a very fortunate set of circumstances. King Arthur is perhaps keeping watch over Albion after all...

#Brexit - where I think we may be...

It was always a total illusion to think that getting the country through anything like this would be clean and easy and without considerable risk and pain.

Has May somewhat sacrificed herself to buy time for all of this to play out and allow for a better deal? The long game to overcome the odds? Effectively that might be how it ends up.

If so and we get a visibly better deal that protects the economy whilst giving us more freedom and certainty - then perhaps in hindsight she will be remembered more fondly.

As usual - let’s see...

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Most Helpful Guys

  • What I've been impressed by is May's dogged determination and channelling the resolute will of Churchill. She is single mindedly focused on delivering what she believes is the will of the people and not deterred by the cacophony all around. This is a good thing in my view and the one thing all British respect is the attitude she's displaying, and I dare say that I believe she is winning more people to her side as a result.

    Corbyn is feckless and yesterday his attempt at a motion of no confidence in the government failed. I think if you're a Labour or a Remainer supporter you probably are questioning his abilities at this stage. His failure to capitalise on a stunning defeat of the governments Brexit bill is massive. True the DUP have propped up the government but zero Tory or DUP defections says a lot about Corbyn.

    The PM for my part played Corbyn and Parliament to a certain extent; she knew the Brexit bill was dead and Parliament was fragmented but had the vote anyway. In doing that and losing by such a wide margin and then gambling on her survival in the vote of no confidence that she baited Corbyn to call, she was then able to call for unity and ask party leaders for their cooperation. Brexit has now become shared and owned by all parliamentary parties instead of just the DUP and Tories.

    Personally I do not believe a hard Brexit would be all that catastrophic; I just don't see it leading to the UK descending into chaos like in Shaun of the Dead. The British economy is in a slump but so is Europe and the UK economy seems healthier than Germany or France.

    • I've not yet talked to anybody who'd disagree with everything you've said.

    • Funny movie by the way (Shaun of the Dead).

      Paul and Hot Fuzz are highly recommend as well :)

    • Definitely! I've seen the Cornetto Trilogy.

  • The only real problem that I had with Brexit is that it only started to gain MANY supporters after the accepting of Syrian refugees. And while I get the UK isn't a huge place geographically, meaning immigrant can either make or break it, but I always felt that those who pushed it forward weren't motivated by the potential economic crisis, but responded to a situation due to Xenophobic motivations.

    I could be wrong since I don't live there, but ever since America had the Muslim ban, I'm afraid of that happening in any other country.

    • I think EU membership has been extremely controversial here for much longer than that, but I can understand why it might seem like a recent thing from the outside.

      Virtually the entire political class has been complicit in deriding anybody who questioned the benefits with such charming terms as 'swivel eyed loons' (sic).

      Our population has grown by an unsustainable 10% or more, since 1991, and I don't think that it's necessarily xenophobic to question that. It has certainly, and undeniably, held down white collar wages, in real terms. People in those professions were seeing a visible detrimental impact on their standard of living. Voting to control it was very much in their self interest.

      That, however, is only one part of the story...

    • Yeah that makes sense, but the way that I've seen representatives talk about it reminds me of Trump. There is PLENTY of illegal immigration from the north America's to the US, yet our president is concerned with the southern border the most.

      Comparisons aren't able to be made since we are vastly different countries, but I feel the same energy sometimes from those who support credit occasionally. It's mostly an observation that doesn't sit well with me.

    • Brexit is much more about not wanting to be part of a superstate ran by unelected technocrats -- who's main purpose seems to be competing with the US, rather than Russia. The xenophobia component has been exacerbated by the migrant crisis, but that was never the original gripe, contrary to the remainers' platform.

Most Helpful Girl

  • Well, i heared that news go crazy in the UK right now what will happen when the Brexit happends. And i do agree that it won't be the complete Apokolypse right away... on the other hand i really dont understand what the UK actually gets from leaving.

    I mean, at the end they the EU means you either pay money and you have more politic Influence (Germany etc) because of the Union, or you get money and loose political Influence (Hungary)...

    I have no Idea why anybody would want to choose the money at that point but well thats just my opinion about this entire topic

    • Many of us feel our political influence is enhanced, not diminished, by leaving the EU. And we get to keep our money, too. Win win.

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    • The EU doesn't have a seat in either the UN or NATO. The UK is one of five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council (along with the USA, Russia, China and France).

      We're also the fifth biggest economy in the world. The idea that 'nobody will care about your opinion if you have no economical power' simply doesn't apply to us. We're not Slovenia or Austria.

      We have the Commonwealth, when it comes to allies. We're trading more with them, and less with the EU, as each year goes by.

    • Still you won't be at peace with neighborhood if all you care about yourself and also what will be the consequence no one knows but US and Russia are like vultures waiting for it like the made a war zone in middle East. Getting out of EU means UK will have to prepare with everything they got or it won't take long to fall the world's 5th economy to fall in no time

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What Girls & Guys Said

  • Thanks for posting this informative summary of your perspective on Brexit. I could read the London Times to try to understand the situation but that would give me a rather biased view of the subject, wouldn't it?

    • I think it would, yes.

      One thing that has become very clear indeed, over the last month or so, is how out of step the House of Commons is with the people who elected them. The press also tend to reflect a metropolitan elitist view, in my opinion.

      The more messing about there is, the more it seems to be driving more and more people towards wanting a clean break...

    • The parallels between UK and US politics are quite interesting, aren't they?

    • I think so, too.

      Both feel like they're in uncharted waters, and it's very difficult to tell what's going to happen.

  • Wait, Germany's having a recession? What are the more specific circumstances behind it?

  • There's so much focus thrown around about the impact of potential "lost" trade with the 26 EU countries in the event of brexit that the potential impact of opening trade with the other 170 or so countries on the planet is being ignored.

    I was in South Africa when the brexit vote was cast. The continent's response was immense. The British High Commission and Embassy buildings were under seige the following day by the governments of the host nations who recognised the potential gains for their economies, and by extension ours.

    Before joining the Common Market, Britain traded with much of the continent as the Commonwealth. Their economys suffered by not being able to export local products to Britain easily because Spain, Italy, France and Portugal grew fruit so we had to buy from them rather than the countries we had traded with for 200 years in some cases. If Europe grew tea, India would have been in real trouble.

    Now we're able to trade with the Commonwealth again freely. As well as the rest of the world.

    Let's let Europe keep their club going. We have Australia, New Zealand, Canada, New Guinea, the USA to trade with.

    • Yes colonial dreams of a past empire, good luck :)

      Sure Commonwealth of nations is better than nothing, but it's not like the old days of you imperial past.

    • It has nothing to do with colonial dreams. The combined GDP of the major non-European markets is far higher than the EU ones - and that's before you add Japan & China.

      The African nations were beating down the door to Britain, not the other way around.

      But the poor f*ckwits blinded by the idea of a united European Union can't see that they're being treated like mushrooms...

      Kept in the dark and fed shit.

    • True the EU suck in some way, just like the UK suck and the USA suck in some ways.

      Nothing is perfect, but it's better than not having an EU.

  • Some of what you have here is a bit subjective and hard to assess. I enjoy reading your opinions but this one is a bit too impressionistic to completely ferret it out. Bits of it are valid, bits of it strike me as mistaken, and bits of it mere speculation.

    Just for the record, I am an American, was pro-Brexit (not that it was any of my business,) a confessed Anglophile (I know all the verses to God Save the Queen - no joke - even my British friends don't know them) and due to my career in politics, I follow foreign affairs with some degree of regularity and intensity. Thus are my credentials.

    That said, it is unlikely that the EU is thinking that it made a mistake. Once the UK voted to leave, the EU basically wrote it off. Their goal became to make leave as painful as possible for two reasons, one specific and one general.

    The specific reason was to advance the interests of the Republic of Ireland. The Irish tail wagged the EU dog in that sense. In economic terms, Ireland is to the UK like Canada is to the US. Vibrant, but smaller and deeply intertwined. So Ireland needed assurances that there would be no hard border with Northern Ireland.

    Moreover, Euroskepticism is a rising force and - see also Poland, Hungary and most astonishingly in the populist government in Italy - the EU needed to make an example of the UK. Thus, they have ever incentive to take a hard line and show the other EU publics that the price of withdrawal will be painful and costly.

    You are right that the British economy is doing well enough. In fact, it is doing better than the continent - or about what it was before the vote to leave. Moreover, the worst predictions of Project Fear - as you called it - have failed to come to pass.

    Train wreck averted and that it all to the good. There indeed, may be the basis for optimism. The case for leaving the EU was always political, not economic.

    A study by the House of Commons Library found that some 70% of British laws - depending on how you count EU court rulings and regulations - were made without reference to Parliament. In effect, the "mother of Parliaments" was reduced to the level of the state legislature of Kansas. For British citizens, there was no point in holding you MP to account if he no longer counts.

    The economic case is less definitive. There are no assurances. To be sure, the UK brings certain advantages. 5th largest economy to the world, a history of trading, the Commonwealth - which though not an economic entity provides a privileged access point to markets around the world, and the fact that withdrawal is not inconsistent with Britain's historic foreign policy of "splendid isolation."

    However, at the end of the day, the UK will thrive or not depending on how wisely it handles economic policy going forward. In purely economic terms, the UK is taking a harder path. The EU is premised on Adam Smith's dictum that "the merchant has no country." The British public has chosen national identity over the abstract rationalism of the Enlightenment.

    Burke rightly pointed out that while that rationalism has its merits, the particularities of national identity are essential to human nature and cannot be dispensed with willy-nilly. The backlash against the EU is but the most recent evidence of that case.

    Long way around, viewed from a distance, some of your optimism is not unwarranted. In the fullness of time the British economy will adapt and life will move on. However, in the short term, you are perhaps a bit too sanguine.

    Because Mr. Cameron - worst Tory Prime Minister ever - bypassed prudent deliberation in Parliament in favor of popular referendum, there was no plan going forward. So there is no social consensus and Britain will have to do that for which they are famous - muddle through.

    Hopefully they have not lost their touch for doing so. You are not wrong that all the shouting is perhaps unwarranted. Still, King Arthur will be very busy for the next few years watching over Albion.

  • As a (young) leaver, I personally voted for reasons far beyond the scope of any mainstream argument pertaining to "muh free trade vs muh sovereignty".

    I think both sides are clueless. Many remainers are either bourgeois,, "educated" liberals who are out of touch with the host of negative effects that supranational federalism has brought to us (namely mass immigration); or are likely ethnic "minorities" themselves who naturally have an interest in staying in Britain.

    The leavers are an odd mix of middle class, Shire County "bring back the Empire" Tory types, alongside many ethnically and culturally cleansed working class, who generally are less intellectually apt in describing their issues - and the media takes great pleasure in libelling them all as thick, drunk wannabe fascists who "hate" Non whites.

    I hate remainers because they prefer to be ruled by a federal super state for self-serving reasons (many are business owners who have indulged in cheap labour). I also hate many leavers because they bang on about sovereignty and immigrants (much as I want to expell them too), but like the remainers, are clueless as to their own history.

    Britain lost its sovereignty when Mayer Rothschild manipulated the stock market before the end of the battle of Waterloo, he had a private courier tell the government that we had lost, the value of *ALL* land and assets plummeted to the value of pennies, so he bought them all. When it turned out we had won against Napoleon, the value of everything returned to normal fluxation, he now owned everything, and had completely subsumed the monarchy, lords, and constitutional law.

    It allowed him to privately own the Bank of England and control government by debt enslavement. By 1913 the US Federal Reserve and most of the world was under their ownership too...

    The EU (SSR) is just a continuation of Federal Reserve usury...

    Neither side understands this.

    Get rid of our banks

    • Yes this is why Brexit keeps being stalled , the Rothschild Cartel do not want this to happen , Teresa May is following orders.

    • @FatherJack
      Years ago Jacob Rothschild himself said Britain would leave. This whole brexit thing is about continuing to destabilise British and continental European identity politics.

      I take it you know about what's going on in France? The elites did not anticipate that I don't think! Notice how they've been using brexit to whitewash what's going on in France? Frankly that is *FAR* more important than whether or not Britain leaves the EU.

  • It seems like the way governments operate, this was always going to be resolved (or not) at the last minute. I can't think of a time recently when the U. S. and U. K. governments have both been in such chaos!

  • We voted to leave, the EU aren't kicking us out. As long as they don't have a huge black hole in their budget (No Deal Scenario) they don't care what happens to the UK post-Brexit. They might offer us more time to decide (since it doesn't cost them anything) but they won't offer us a better deal. They can't because it would encourage other countries to leave.

    • It's not that easy to argue against this, because there isn't enough evidence to do so. You may be correct. I suspect events will prove either you or I right, but I don't expect any real clarity on this until we get down to the wire.

      What I would say is that your belief that they won't offer us a better deal feels broadly correct to me, provided that the negotiations on their side remain with the people they're currently with. But just as there are people in the UK calling for new or 'better' negotiators to be sent from our side, there are similar feelings on the EU side, that Barnier has ballsed this up big time. Whether he remains in charge of the process, we will obviously need to wait and see...

  • Interesting perspective. From outside the UK I’m not even hearing a whimper or a better deal from the EU so if that’s what people in the UK think (no clue if it’s true!) that’s fascinating.

    From here it looks like hard brexit is coming.

    • Over time, the EU proportion of the UK's overseas trade is moving steadily in one direction - down. In 2017, we had a trade deficit of £67 billion with the EU. The UK is the German motor trade's single largest customer. They're starting to shit themselves.


      'Hard Brexit' in reality means WTO rules, until a better deal is negotiated. It's not the Apocalypse, and is highly unlikely to be as disruptive as all the usual suspects claim. They're often the same people who told us we were doomed if we didn't join the euro.

  • An interesting viewpoint. Could you make it more clearly for me what the Bristish people actually want? It seems like they have no clue at all. They want to be out of the EU I get that but they still want the benefits? Don´t you think that is too much to ask for? If you break off a contract you get no benefits and certainly no money anymore.

    • It's very difficult to say what the British people, as a whole, actually want, because there is still a lot of division over the issue.

      The Remain side ideally want to ignore the referendum result, and failing that, to stay in a position as close to the present set up as possible. The Leave side want to leave. Most of us are OK leaving on World Trade Organisation terms. Or, if both sides agree, we can negotiate a free trade deal, as many other third party countries already have.

      We don't get any money from the EU, we're the second largest net contributor, after Germany. So I'm not really sure where that last part comes from?

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    • I mean British Citizen that live in UK but work somewhere else. Can they travel freely without a work permit and Visa or do they need a permit now and have to wait in line at the Channel Tunnel? Do they have longer way to work or not? Yes or no?

    • There's very few people who live in the UK, but work in another EU country, although I suppose some must exist.

      I don't know, it's not been finalised yet, but probably they'll need a work permit. It's not a big deal to get one, though.

  • Hard brexit is coming, it too late for new negotiations. Westminster should have talked two years ago and found the common ground needed for entering negotiations, now it's too late.

    There will be no new deal, no extension of time, so it's May's deal or no deal. And nobody likes May's deal, so it's down to hard brexit.

    Perhaps getting rid of the UK will be beneficial in the end, with this kind of attitude who needs them in the EU.

    • 'Hard Brexit' is simply World Trade Organisation rules.

      It's no good you trying to blame this on Westminster - the EU never negotiated in good faith, from the start. They were more interested in making sure no other countries left, than in securing a mutually satisfactory arrangement.

      I suspect that's going to come back to bite them in the arse at some point.

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    • Any criticism of the UK is laughable in your eyes.

      1. We are the fifth largest economy in the world.

      Let's see for how long ;)

      2. Along with the US, we are the only country able to project our military power anywhere around the globe.

      What about France, Russia, and China, all nuclear powers with aircraft carriers.

      3. We are a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

      And this influences your economy how?
      You have a legacy from your imperial days we all know that.

      4. London is the world's financial capital.

      No, it's Europe and it's ranked no 2 globally, supersede by New York - blasted colonials :)

      5. We are a founder member of the Commonwealth.

      Yes a legacy from your imperial days, but the Commonwealth of nations have little economic influence in 2019. Most members are rather poor countries, that despite its huge combined population isn't as large as you might think.

      You hardly share any values in Commonwealth outside some sporting events.

      It's clear you consider the word Great in Great Britain to be taken literally, old imperial dreams I would say.

    • You started it. And it appears that you don't speak for everybody in the EU, anyway, surprise, surprise - these lot are begging us to stay...


  • I don't understand this part of British politics. I take it you are a Brexit supporter.

    I don't get why the deal was voted down. But whatever. Aren't you guys leaving in May no matter what?

    So why does it matter?

    • Yes, the UK will be leaving in May no matter what. both the UK and the EU must agree to extent the exit if so, and the EU won't agree due to the upcoming election.

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    • California leaving the US is a theoretical situation, used to illustrate a point. Your comments that California would automatically become a third party country are pure conjecture.

      Three former Trust Territories of the United States, Palau, the Marshall Islands and the Northern Marianas retain access to residence in the United States, and unrestricted access to the United States labour market. This is despite them not being United States citizens. Same goes for Russia and Belarus, in each other's respective countries. And others.

      That's the sort of deal some people want to retain. I'm not bothered either way. That wasn't why I voted Leave.

    • Conjecture?

      Dude, that was your hypothetical, not mine. Perhaps this is a cultural issue. In America, if such a thing would be proposed it would probably be a situation where not as many people would be concerned about damage to the economy or the well being of families and individuals impacted negatively.

      You have to understand that "we" are Americans. We don't really have the same kinds of concerns about our citizens, as say most in British society. If you note that in our debate about the government shutdown, those who are not impacted are not really concerned about those who are.

      Perhaps this is the source of differences in understanding about the situation.

      Sufficed to say, that Brexit is being handled in a very European. . . and British way.

      I think you know the kind of brutish way it would be handled if it were an issue happening with an American state.

      There probably would not be this much negotiation.

  • It's obvious that the UK didn't find the EU beneficial. Should there have been an EU anyway?

    • I don't think its original intent (which was purely as a free trade area) was a bad idea, although I don't think the UK should have joined that either.

      Where it all went wrong was when its politicians, with no mandate from their respective nations, decided to try and build it up into an empire, with its own flag, currency, anthem, army etc. That has been a horrible disaster.

  • I personally think that Brexit is good for no one but Russia, a weakened EU being exactly what they want

    • I'm really surprised that you've got such a rosy view of the EU. It's not a friend to the US. For instance, the EU charges a 10% tariff on American car imports. The US only charges a 2.5% tariff on EU produced cars. I'm surprised you think that's OK?

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    • Putin loves Brexit and the US government shutdown!

    • @tartaarsaus It's Russian policy to destabilise all it's enemy's (both the US and EU), so yes EU is a target to destabilise it's NATO enemies here.

      However, covert warfare is not new and this have been done by the US for decades around the world.

  • What was the point of establishing the EU? They probably saw the now independent republics of the former USSR struggle without a leading nation and wondered if that would also happen to them. Weaker European countries hoped to mooch off a wealthy and strong neighbor. In this case that would be Britain. I don't think Britain was gonna wait and see if the weaker economies in the EU was gonna drag her down. It seems selfish of the Brexit movement but I think it's a smart move.

  • The main problem is parliament itself. When the vote came through all MPs should have accepted it as it was a vote to leave not to try and get round it or nullify it , and call the leavers names as if they are stupid. The labour party will not accept any deal, all they want is a general election. Sadly we know what happened when they were in the driving seat , the main thing that stands out is Blare lying through his teeth to go to war. Personally I think we should never had joined the club …….

  • If brexit fucks us in the ass, I'm off to Canada baby after finishing my studies (I have to anyway as there are more geologist jobs there.)

    But all serious the fucking politicians got like 10 weeks to sort out their problem and sort out a deal because no deal WILL highly damage the UK economy because one thing that investors and businesses don't like and that is uncertainty.

    • Don't worry the UK will still exist and remain mostly the same, this is more a matter of economic than anything else. The UK economic won't grow as fast as it otherwise would but both the UK and the EU will live on, will taking a small economic hit.

    • I agree with James

  • I'm more interested in the future event IF UK did well independently. Would German and France follow the footsteps of leaving EU?

    I'm guessing the alimony would be higher for them than UK 😂

  • UKs DEMOCRACY is being tested to it's limits. The British government had a vote on leave or remain in Europe. LEAVERS WON ! However some Mps don't want to leave. So DEMOCRACY is Turning British politics into Dictatorship of those whom are in power can overturn DEMOCRACY. I would go as far as to say no country is democratic But dictatorship.

  • I am smarter now after reading this.
    I think it will work out just fine the UK... just as it has for what hundreds of years?
    A very well written take and your view comes out clear.

  • That's not the way the British government works.
    We're an anarcho-syndicalist commune. We take it in turns to act as a sort of executive officer for the week. But all the decisions of that officer have to be ratified at a special biweekly meeting by a simple majority in the case of purely internal affairs, but by a two-thirds majority in the case of more...

  • Honestly, I hope they fail to negotiate a deal and David Cameron gets put in a guilloutine.

    • Why? Because he did what he said he would, and held a democratic vote on an issue which people have been denied their say on for decades?

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    • His big fuck was leading the Remain campaign. He could easily have stayed on as PM, if he'd just stayed neutral throughout the campaign, said what he thought on the final day, and hadn't nailed his colours so firmly to the mast...

    • I agree with James

  • Apparently, given the proportions of age ranges voting each way, over the last 2 years, and without anyone changing their minds, there would probably be a majority for remain, if the referendum were repeated today. (2/3 old folks voted leave, 4/5 young folks voted remain, but most people who were too young to vote at the time of the referendum are still alive, not so many of those older folk are.)

    I'm pretty sure a few people have changed their minds.

    • I wouldn't take what Polly Toynbee has to say very seriously at all, mate. I read that article, too. You can almost rely on her to be absolutely wrong about almost anything she writes about.

      I think some will have changed their minds too, but not in the way you're implying. I've talked to a number of people who have been so disgusted by the way the EU has negotiated that they said they'd change to Leave, given another chance. I've not yet met anybody who has said the opposite.

      I should add in, too, that people who are unaware of how I voted, pretty much always assume I voted to Remain, due to my personal circumstances. They're not just telling me what they think I want to hear...

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    • This one is from this week...


    • There are precedents for repeating referenda:
      "Other union countries, including Denmark and Ireland, have voted twice on European Union treaties and reversed the initial outcome. They are still thriving democracies, as far as anyone can tell. People change their minds and survive."

      But you're right, my poll is over a year old. This YouGov one (linked from the NYT article) is from the beginning of the year d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/.../...rgePoll_w.pdf and says 54 remain - 46% leave.

      It also says that, if the country got better terms from the EU, the remain vote would be 65%.

      The poll you linked also says the likely vote has shifted pretty much towards remain. It clearly asked people how they would vote on a referendum tomorrow, and how they voted before, but don't make a big thing of it.

      e. g. Page 9:
      2016: voted leave: 966, voted remain: 764
      2018: would vote leave: 907, remain: 858

      That means they intervied 966 people who voted leave, and now only 907 would, and the remainers picked up 94, which is more than the 59 the leavers lost.

  • There's nothing to see. Brexit was a bullshit move.

    The European Union was created to promote peace and cooperation among countries. The future of the world is to be more integrated, not to have more frontiers.

    Saying that people in Britain don't have jobs because of being in Europe is plain lack of culture. For finding where your jobs are, look at Asia. Not only they need to pay less to the workers, but they actually work better than anyone.

    • With respect, I don't that you really understand it.

      The EU was created to be a free trade zone, nothing more. It is NATO that has kept the peace in Europe, and the EU deserves NO credit for that. In fact, EU interference in Yugoslavia, and more recently Ukraine, has caused war in those countries.

      I didn't say British people don't have jobs because of being in the EU. You did.

      Since you've brought that up, however, there is no denying that blue collar jobs have seen wage stagnation because of the EU, and that this situation is now starting to turn round, now that we are leaving. So a plumber who voted to leave was doing so in his own best interests, not due to stupidity, racism or whatever else Remainers might accuse him of...

  • The people voted to get out and their gov won't listen, sounds very familiar only most things in the US they don't give a vote on, they just do as they please.

    • They will leave, the issue is about on what terms they leave.

  • the reason that brexit happened is the same logic and reasoning of how trump became president. if i remember correctly, most brits didn't care to vote, namely, the younger demographics. not many people thought it would happen so they didn't vote... then it passed. but more people, i gather are more indifferent to it than have an opinion 1 way or another. if i remember, it was something like 50-60% of people under the age of 65 eligible voters actually voted, whereas like 85%+ of 65+ voted and that was a huge factor... i may be wrong.

    • The turnout was 72%, which was far higher than is typical for a general election, with many people registering to vote for the first time. That was one of the most distinctive things about the referendum - it got people, who had never voted before, for anything, interested and involved.

    • got it. i don't know much of the details... i just read it somewhere. but it's a case, like our election, where it felt like public opinion was 1 way, but 1 side went full force while the other was more apathetic about it. i don't care much either way on the matter. i feel like it's probably more hurtful than helpful for the uk only if the eu disolves, only because it's an island nation and doesn't have the luxury of economic trade freedom that it did, and it has to compete and trade now with a super-economy. granted the uk isn't poor by any means... then again, you don't have to deal with weaker countries essentially mooching off your economy either, like greece. but that's just my 2 cents...

      still looking to possibly move to the uk one day, though.

  • i don't quite understand how this "freedom" helps you economically in any way shape or form. you shot yourself in the foot, that's what happened. the brexit referendum was an intelligence check and the brits failed.

    • This illustrates very clearly how so many of the EU's supporters simply do not get it.

      We didn't vote for Brexit to make ourselves richer, we voted for a better future. One in which democratic accountability isn't cast aside, because it's inconvenient to some faceless entity in Brussels.

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    • there's no denying that the eu policy on milk meat and fish especially are idiotic.

    • Well, the tariffs could be higher with the EU (although that's not yet certain), but they can also be lowered for the rest of the world.

      Don't forget, we do less and less of our international trade with the EU, and that's been a directional trend for some time. I think 80% or more of our companies do no trade at all with the EU. So it won't be as much of a wrench as some people seem to believe.

  • As long as we don't have to pay for medical care (like US prices) then I am good with whatever once the dust settles!

  • The UK will be fine, the economy grows will not be as fast as in the EU but otherwise, there won't be any difference.

  • Wish the whole brexit mess had never been offered. I, like the rest of my family voted remain.
    If folk had known the shambolic mess we're in now?

  • I personally think most people are in the middle against most of the extremists on either side. Although stupid people panic the calm middle will provide a clear exit plan so you can be free of the socialistic oppression of the E. U. that makes great Britain responsible for the actions of Greece, or that oppresses Greece for the benifit of the E. U. The greek government should have failed then rallied back by year 2 instead of this drawn out oppression the E. U. has handed out to save face with international creditors.

  • Hard brexit or bust. It's too late for any other options at this point.

  • Essentially the EU tried to blackmail britain into keeping all the responsibilities towards the EU without any say in the matter - thus per se Britain still remaining.

    Though, ironically you could call it karma, since the British parliament did something similar with Scotland not too long ago.

    Either way. The EU is a giant piece of authoritarian crap. Just recently it was decided behind closed doors that France and Germany are supposed to get the same laws and be in "sync" - de facto undermining the nations autonomy. It's time the EUDSSR starts collapsing and countries get to deal with their own shit and have their own responsibilities again.

  • This European B. S Orginally created to get leverage over U S market has become a big economic failure. Europe is yet a huge player in global markets as it once was. All these immigrant on route to Europe isn't new. It's a wake up call. Karma is a bitch. U. S had to deal with this sort of influxes for decades starting from 1930s onward. It's no wonderGlobal markets aren't surprised when China opens markets and Africa is soon to become to next economic boom. Where will Europe find food. Mmmm let's see China? Anyone. They are monopolizing its business in Africa. What is Europe doing except snoozing.

  • A very nice and thoughtfully written myTake.

    • Thanks, Alistayr :)

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    • Yes, a fascinating thread. I learned a great deal. As an American, I could never quite grasp how those thousands of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels added value to the British economy, especially in light of what the UK contributes. Do the British really need to have their electric tea kettles approved by the EU?

    • Some of us suspected what would happen before we joined.

  • This was informative, thank you

  • Interesting

  • we may we fucked u forgot add it to the title :)

  • This was informative

  • Nice take


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