How many total US Senate seats will the REPUBLICANS have after the 2022 mid-term election results are completely in?

[Anonymous]

Picture from article below

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/senate-results

A - I don’t care / Just show me this question’s polling results

B - Less than 50

C - 50

D - 51

E - 52

F - 53

G - More than 53

Updates

1 y

As of 1:22 am on Wed Nov 9, 2022:
The count of the Senate seats (taken into account the mid-term elections) currently stands at: 48 Republican & 48 Democrat (with the PA Senate seat being won by the Democrat Fetterman).

And “What if?” projections of the remaining Senate seats are likely to finally pan out resulting in 51 Republican 49 Democrat or 50 Rep 50 Dem (after maybe a Dec GA Republican runoff win)…We shall see.

Updates

1 y

As of 9:20 am on Sun Nov 13, 2022:
The latest count of Senate seats from the mid-term elections is: 49 Republican & 50 Democrat, with the GA Senate seat (and a Dec runoff election) still outstanding.

Updates

1 y

10:35 pm on Tues Dec 6, 2022:
The Associated Press recently announced that the Democrat candidate Warnock beat the Republican candidate Walker, so the FINAL COUNT of the US Senate seats (taken into account the mid-term elections) IS: 49 Republicans & 51 Democrats

Updates

1 y

Dec 9, 2022 NEWS:
www.foxnews.com/.../arizona-sen-kyrsten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party-registers-independent

[Cubus]

I would say it's gonna be 51-49 for the GOP with Laxalt flipping Nevada.

Although there are 4 or 5 more states that are super competitive so it can also be 54-46 into both sides

- Pennsylvania - Honestly, here I can't predict anything. The most recent poll shows Fetterman with 1% advantage over Oz and 5% people undecided, so it's gonna be a razor thin margain. Both Oz and Fetterman can win.

- Georgia - I am 99% sure that neither Walker nor Warnock's gonna get over 50% and it's gonna end with Round 2. What amazes me is that Walker, despite being a terrible candidate, is actually slightly leading in newest polls, so I would give a narrow edge to him, but everything can happen

- Nevada - All of the November polls but one have Laxalt in the lead by 2 to 5 points. I am sure, he's not gonna win by 5%, because Nevada is very competitive, but I expect him to win by something like 2 or maybe 3%. It's possible the best opportunity for the GOP to flip a seat.

- Arizona - It's also a very close race, but if I had to bet, I would say Democrat Kelly would win by a very narrow margain - something like 1 or 2%. Although it can still end up with Masters win, especially now, that Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Masters, which can give him 2 or 3 % points that might me crucial.

States that are not tossups, but can still end with an upset:

- New Hampshire - Republican Don Bolduc is surprisingly close to Democrat Maggie Hassan, but I expect him to narrowly lose.

- Wisconsin - It was expected to be a very close race, and while it still is - Republican Johnson in all November polls is leading by 2 to 6% over Democrat Mandela Barnes. I expect him to be reelected with narrow but in some way comfortable margain (for such a competitive state) of close to 3%.

- North Carolina - North Carolina is a purple state and is still competitive, but all of the November polls show Republican Ted Budd with a lead of 5-7% % which is very big for such a swing state. I guess the margain would be slightly lower but still Budd would win. The last poll in which Democratic Beasley was winning was in mid September.

- Ohio - J. D. Vance is not a good candidate, but Ohio has gotten so red in last years, that I still expect him to win. In 2020 Trump won Ohio by 8%, now I expect Vance to win by something like half of that margain.

- Florida - State that used to be a swing state where the elections were decided by narrowest of margains has become a Lady In Red in last 2 years. I don't see a way for Republican Rubio to lose, especially that he outperforemd other Republicans in his former Senate Elections (in 2016 he won by a margain of almost 8% - very large for Florida)

- Colorado - Joe O'Dea is a very moderate Republican, who f. e. supports abortion but polls show Democrat Bennet with a comfortable advantage.

- Washington - Even though Washington is a blue stronghold, newest polls show Democrat Patty Murray leading with a very narrow margain over Republican Tiffany Smiley. It would still be a disaster for Democrats, but newest polls show that the upset is possible. With not high chance, but still.

- Utah - Democrats decided not to endorse their own candidate, but an Independent Evan McMullin, who is conservative on most issues. Still, I expect Republican Lee to win.

Others:
- California, Oregon, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Vermont, Connecticut - Safe D
- Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, both Oklahoma races, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina and Indiana - Safe R.

[Asker]

Thanks for your comprehensive opinion.

Two things:
- Sometimes polls are wong because the poll-ees don’t want to be candid with the polling people because of fears of social harassment.

- I have read the following regarding the Senate elections:
1. Republicans will win Senate seats in NH, NV, and WI
2. AZ will probably go Republican
3. GA will go into a runoff but the Republican (Walker) will win
4. PA is a toss-up

[Cubus]

I know, but in last elections (2020) Republicans highly overperformed polls in key races actually.
- Biden was expected to win Arizona by 2%. He only won it by 0,3%.
- Texas was expected to be a tossup and Trump won it by 5,5%
- Biden was expected to win Florida by 2,5% and Trump won it by 3,5%
- Biden was expected to win North Carolina by 2% and Trump won it by 1,5%
- Trump was expected to win Ohio by only 1% and he won it by 8%
- Biden was expected to win Wisconsin by 8 or 9% and he only won it by 0,5%
- Biden was expected to win Michigan by 6% and he only won it by 3%
- Biden was expected to win Pennsylvania by 4 or 5% and he only won it by 1,25%

The only exception is Georgia, where polls were showing Trump winning by 2-4% and Biden won it by 0,25%

The same in House. Republicans were expected to lose seats and they actually won a few.

So I would say it's very possible that Republicans can overperform polls again. Especially that they have a momentum now and their results were increasing in last days.

[Asker]

Yeah, the only poll you can trust is the final one: the actual counting of the votes.

[Asker]

One other thing: the AZ race is more of a toss-up

[Asker]

51-49 for the GOP may end up being correct!

[Cubus]

This would only happen if Laxalt wins Nevada and Walker wins a runoff in Georgia. First is possible. Second would be extremely close.

[Jamie05rhs]

@Cubus You have provided a very intelligent analysis here. I am thoroughly impressed.

[Cubus]

@Jamie05rhs Thank you

[Jamie05rhs]

You're welcome!

[AviatorTom]

My gut feeling is that some seats will swap between parties, with the total numbers being what they are before the election... no change.

[EnglishArtsteacher]

I just wrote a myTake about this.

I predict Republicans will win the U. S. Senate, and win exactly 51 seats, so I voted for Option D.

[Asker]

It may indeed end up being 51 Republican Senate seats.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

53. I think Republicans will gain at least 53 majority in the senate.

The Democrat party seriously deserves to get their tails kick.

[Asker]

Can you please vote F in the poll?

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

I did.

[Asker]

Ok great.

[mickmrly]

I'm guessing 53. Republicans gain Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire while holding Pennsylvania and losing Alaska due to infighting.

[Cubus]

Murkowski is very popular in Alaska, I don;t expect her to have a problem with reelection.

[BarryLiverstone]

Not as many as when all the votes are counted and legal proceedings bleed into 2023

[Asker]

I said how many after the after the mid-term election results are completely in.

[BarryLiverstone]

It will be more than 50 if you mean by the spring of 2023

[Asker]

Yes — after all the results & challenges are all finally in & done.

So which answer-option letter did you choose?

[BarryLiverstone]

I didn’t choose, no need

[AngryCarl]

The Senate will be split 50/50 as I've pointed out elsewhere.

[Asker]

I disagree, the Republicans will win the Senate.

[AngryCarl]

We shall see.

[Asker]

Yep (it’ll probably take a while).

[Asker]

50-50 is a possibility!

[Msputiton]

Opinions mean nothing.

I hear this worthless commentary about my games as well. They better than y'all. They gonna beat ya.

And then all those mouthy people hide as we celebrate our win.

We can talk all day bout it. But it ain't nothin more than talk.

I'm been more about don't talk about it, be about it.

[Asker]

What “commentary”?
This question asks whether you think that the Republicans will have less than 50, or 50, or more than 50 Senate seats after the mid-term election results are finally in.

[KayMay]

Who do you think will win?

[Msputiton]

Yup your question ain't but once the obessed political crazies get involved it will become my party is better than yours and will dominate and control this question.

At this point it really doesn't matter who controls the senate.

Because we don't hold anybody accountable for their actions so our candidates get worse and worse.

[BeMuse]

Military is watching... It will be funny to watch the cheaters get taken to GTMO.

[Jamie05rhs]

The same as they do now.

[Jamie05rhs]

Whelp... I was wrong.

[Asker]

That’s ok, almost everyone was thinking that the GOP would take over the Senate majority too.

[Asker]

* Actually, HALF of the people in my poll thought that the GOP would end up with 51+ Senate seats.

[Asker]

Note:
17 of 34 (50%) voted “D-G - [51+]” in the poll

10 of 34 (29.4%) voted “B-C - [< 51]” in the poll
Details:
7 of 34 (20.6%) voted “A - I don’t care / Just show me this question’s polling results” in the poll

5 of 34 (14.7%) voted “B - Less than 50” in the poll

5 of 34 (14.7%) voted “C - 50” in the poll

[Jamie05rhs]

@Gagname at least I was close, though. I was only off by 3 percentage points. Warnock beat Walker 51 to 48.

[Asker]

Yep. Did you hear the news about Senator Sinema?…

www.foxnews.com/.../arizona-sen-kyrsten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party-registers-independent

[Jamie05rhs]

Holy shit! She actually did it!!

[888theGreat]

Just asked this , 55

[Asker]

Wow, this is the highest prediction I’ve seen anywhere.

[ChefPapiChulo]

he's delusional.

[KayMay]

I voted for 53.

[Paige90]

I think 54 and I hope for even more.