What are the chances Israel takes out Iran's Nuclear plants?

[888theGreat]

They have a reason now since Iran sent missiles into Israel. I think Israel set this up by bombing the embassy in Syria. They hoped Iran would do exactly that.

100% chance

90% chance

75% Chance

50% chance

25% chance

10% chance

0% chance

Updates

+1 y

Israel has the ability and know where their reactors are. They knew about Iran's Generals location when they killed them. Many Iranians on Israel's payroll.

[RavVid]

While we liken geopol to a game of chess I doubt it is planned out moves ahead quite as the implication of your question suggests. That is simply because there are more options in real life.

Iran has clients it can and does act through and possibly will in a response to an Israeli response.

Israel from necessity doesn't hold it self back like the US does and disable itself. I have no doubt Israel would like to destroy Iran nuclear facilities before they have a nuclear bomb which they will if uninterrupted. I am quite sure a lot of Iran's neighbors will be smiling if they do.

We can be quite sure Russia and China is helping out Iran with their nuclear programme. If Russia came begging for drones, you would ask for nuclear secrets wouldn't you?

It doesn't have to be tomorrow though.

So I am thinking Israel will reason they MUST do something in the near future and giving that a 50% likelihood without the recent Iran strike. I'd up that to 75% after the strike.

[Soteris]

Literally zero. First of all, only a madman would retaliate since this matter is already settled but more importantly Iran built their nuclear stuff inside mountains specifically to prevent them from being bombed. Israel simply won't have enough bombs to actually put a dent in the paint on those things even if they tried.

[FreyaRed]

10%. Iran has S-300 anti air missiles but those under performed massively in Ukraine against modern stealth cruise missiles like Seashadow or Scalp. I think some installations on the surface can be easily damaged with such cruise missiles and Iran can't do anything against it but underground facilities remain unaffected. There are special penetrating bombs which can destroy bunkers and other underground facilities but those bombs need to be released close to target from high altitude and this will be a risky task for IDF pilots.

[888theGreat]

Bunker busters

[888theGreat]

Stealth Fighters

[ApplePie409]

My first choice would be to offer citizenship into the US to all law-abiding Israelis. Take it or leave it, but the money stops flowing, either way.

My second choice is to allow Israel to take the gloves off and nuke the shit out of Iran. Cut the head off of the snake. These stupid wars need to end. And America needs to stop funding them. I heard someone say that everyone in America could get free college, for the money we pissed away in Ukraine.

[888theGreat]

I thought we offer Palestians Alaska take it or leave it, since Jews were there first.

[ApplePie409]

The Palestinians voted for a terrorist government, You reap what you sow. I have no sympathy for them.

[Sevenpointfive]

but you are indian. how can you say that people reap what the sow when the poverty in your country sucks?

[ApplePie409]

@Sevenpointfive
What?

[Goahead76]

I think Israel is in a lot of trouble. Iran has the something on the order of 100k missiles spread out all over the country in hidden mountain bunkers, they could destroy Israel anytime they want. This idea they need nukes is silly. They could utterly overwhelm the Iron dome. Contrary to popular opinion I don't think Iran wants a war, Israel certainly does though. Sad though because Iran or Turkey could put a stop to the genocide anytime.

[JacobJordan]

Israel is not even remotely in trouble. The only militaries that pose a threat to Israel are Russia, China and the USA. Israel has also fought 3 countries at once. And all 3 countries lost a hell of a lot of people

[Sevenpointfive]

israel is not looking at confronting terrorism. they are pushing that idea behind zionism. and once people understand that it makes israel look much worse than it already is.

[Goahead76]

Are you aware that Turkey alone has a very capable army of 2 million? Doubtful they would act alone, but if they wanted to they could sweep down like a flood and even the US couldn't stop them.
Israel's only response is to start firing nukes in every direction as they've said they'll do. Which in return Pakistan has vowed to glass Israel.
I don't want to see any of this happen, but I think you're not understanding how precarious Israel's situation is.

[JacobJordan]

No country is going to launch nukes lol and Pakistan is a joke. You vastly overestimate the middle eastern countries capabilities. When the US invests roughly 300b a year into a middle eastern countries military that military has access to better tech than most "threats" will ever even see. Israel has no interest in fighting countries they want to be left alone and they have made that clear. And yet terrorist countries continue to attack them. Also turkey is allies with Israel. Not to mention the USA is allied with both. Turkey is not going to risk losing the benefits of US allyship to attack a country the US protects. Do yourself a favor and study geopolitics will save you and everyone else a lot of time. It is a tragedy that we don't teach geopolitics in school as it would be invaluable to people like you who base most of your stances on trivial matters that are superceded by things like which countries support which countries.

[Goahead76]

I honestly can't tell if you're being serious or screwing around. You invoked the word "geopolitics" but so far you haven't said one word that shows you have any knowledge of it. I have every one of George Friedman's books, Henry Kissingers World Order, Admiral Stavridis, every book by Peter Zeihan, and Robert Kaplan. I have stacks of these and have read them all, some of whom I think are full of shit, others some great insights. So don't talk to me about geopolitics.
Secondly though, just because Israel had military victories in the past is no indicator. Hezbollah alone has made quantum leaps militarily in recent years. I've heard more than a few very competent military analysts of late say if Israel goes up against Hezbollah alone they're very likely to lose, let alone the Turks or Iranian or any other coalition.
So for you to say Israel isn't remotely in any trouble is ludicrous. You can hear it in the trembling voice of Anthony Blinken, they know they are barely keeping a lid on this. Iran cabled Washington just a week ago and said, "look guys, we haven't closed the straights of Hormuz basically as a favor". If they do, the world's economy comes unhitched and our gas prices go to numbers we've never seen. They have all the leverage and we are very vulnerable over there. We don't want to find out what that looks like, so please stop with the arrogance and bluster it isn't helpful.

[JacobJordan]

You keep saying the turks this and the turks that. When turkey is allied with Israel. I don't have to bluster when you clearly are dumb. And Iran's first attack got absolutely clowned by the US and Israel. Was all over the damn news. Every news outlet that reported it of course. Please spare me the mental retardation of further comments until you learn which countries are allied with which countries and which countries pose a threat and which don't.

[Goahead76]

You really think this "alliy" status means a damn thing? Look they were on good terms in the past with some ups and downs, but you clearly haven't listened to anything Erdogan has said in the last 6 months. He has been relentless with blistering attacks in front of some of the biggest crowds I've ever seen. He knows his populace is engaged, they want action. The reason I bring them up is they're indicative of every country in the region. I'm sorry man but your information is way out of date but keep it up with the ridiculous insults, they make me laugh.

[Goahead76]

Israel's only hope is to drag us into this.

[JacobJordan]

You seem to be forgetting that turkey is allied with the US and we are already apart of it. We have ships off the coast of Iran and Iran has been attacking the US as well. Good lord you are daft

[Sevenpointfive]

@JacobJordan when you "actually" intend to attack and incite a response in an act of war, you don't give them a fair warning with a 48 hour window. that was a HELLO.

[JacobJordan]

@Sevenpointfive did I say anything about a 48 hour window sparkplug?

[Sevenpointfive]

@JacobJordan good luck to you then. i have no sympathy for you people

[JacobJordan]

@Sevenpointfive so because I said nothing about a 48 hour window and made you look like an idiot and what do you mean "you people" what precisely are you assuming I am lol. Let's see if you have gotten any more intelligent in the last 5 minutes

[Sevenpointfive]

@JacobJordan i don't feel like an idiot unless by proxy president biden then yes. i know who you are. i know oddbeme by now. how many accounts do you have to attack people?

[JacobJordan]

@Sevenpointfive I don't attack people lol. I don't have to. Secondly what are you even talking about. Are you trying to say I am a liberal? Cause I can promise you I am not. Not a chance in hell I would support any left wing agenda. Hell I don't even support most right wing agendas. What I do support are facts. And you claimed something about a 48 hour window and tagged me. So if you aren't an idiot then explain what you meant. You also said "you people" so what makes you think I am part of a "you people" and also which people are you referring to lol. And lastly who the heck is oddbeme?

[Sevenpointfive]

@JacobJordan i think youpeople means everyone in their own personal agendas trajectory. it's not a goldmine here journalist. no gold here. if you want a true opinion from the ground... then you'll get it. dose them with a little "maybe half-truths from sources", and get some responses. that's not getting true sentiment.

[JacobJordan]

@Sevenpointfive so you have no idea what you are talking about and you are just running your mouth and making false assumptions. Got it. You are right you aren't an idiot. You are dumber than a rock. Good day vegetable

[Sevenpointfive]

@JacobJordan if you think china and russia are the only people against israel right now, that's circumspect

[JacobJordan]

@Sevenpointfive did I say that they were? No. You really should try reading dumbass. It will save both of us a lot of time while you figure out what point you are trying to make

[Sevenpointfive]

@JacobJordan i appreciate your opinion. disregaurd. iran has no nukes. it could be a surprise attack, but for 20 years the us. has flown over those skies and seen no uv incidences.

[JacobJordan]

@Sevenpointfive what crack are you smoking retard? See folks this is why you don't do drugs. I didn't say Iran had nukes because I know they don't.

[888theGreat]

Better go look up their strength again. israel has more of everything

[Dargil]

Very low. Israel does not want to punish ordinary citizens. They want to disable the leadership and the ballistic missile and nuclear weapon programs.

[888theGreat]

Iran plans to nuke Israel , so has nothing to do with citizens. Any people that let assholes in as leaders deserve to die with them for being weak and stupid. Like Hamas , only people with an IQ of 5 would let them lead their country.

[Sevenpointfive]

can we have a jewish culling here in the usa before the second holocaust so we're not to blame? let's send the jews back home to fight for their people. why should we fight their war for them while they hide in our country?

[Avicenna]

@Sevenpointfive: Note to anti-Semites: the US does not do Israel's fighting for it- Israelis do their own fighting. Furthermore, you can't expel US citizens from the US like the Arabs did their Jewish citizens after the founding of the State of Israel, nor can you force any US Jews to fight for Israel (some of them are crazed leftists who would actually assist Hamas).

[Avicenna]

They can't. Iran's nuclear facilities are hardened, in densely populated areas and are widely distributed.

[888theGreat]

They can and will no matter the outcome.

[Dargil]

But They know where Tehran is.

[Avicenna]

Such an attack can't be carried out from Iran, would require US satellite and intelligence assets and definitely couldn't be done without the US bombing as well. Even then, it probably wouldn't knock out the Iranian nuclear program. It's not going to happen.

[Avicenna]

* Couldn't be carried out from Israel

[888theGreat]

Nuclear weapons. Doesn't matter , fall out and everyone there dies of cancers.

[Siri137]

They should take them out, because plants need sunshine and rain.

[Freakzilla4ya]

They dont have the capabilities to do this alone. WW3 has already began but this would put the world at risk.

[Meropatrick]

Unless they want ww3 to start.

[Likes2drive]

Probably 90%

[strateguy632]

i hope so.

[XXblack88]

🤔 maybe 75%