They have a reason now since Iran sent missiles into Israel. I think Israel set this up by bombing the embassy in Syria. They hoped Iran would do exactly that.
While we liken geopol to a game of chess I doubt it is planned out moves ahead quite as the implication of your question suggests. That is simply because there are more options in real life.
Iran has clients it can and does act through and possibly will in a response to an Israeli response.
Israel from necessity doesn't hold it self back like the US does and disable itself. I have no doubt Israel would like to destroy Iran nuclear facilities before they have a nuclear bomb which they will if uninterrupted. I am quite sure a lot of Iran's neighbors will be smiling if they do.
We can be quite sure Russia and China is helping out Iran with their nuclear programme. If Russia came begging for drones, you would ask for nuclear secrets wouldn't you?
It doesn't have to be tomorrow though.
So I am thinking Israel will reason they MUST do something in the near future and giving that a 50% likelihood without the recent Iran strike. I'd up that to 75% after the strike.
Literally zero. First of all, only a madman would retaliate since this matter is already settled but more importantly Iran built their nuclear stuff inside mountains specifically to prevent them from being bombed. Israel simply won't have enough bombs to actually put a dent in the paint on those things even if they tried.
10%. Iran has S-300 anti air missiles but those under performed massively in Ukraine against modern stealth cruise missiles like Seashadow or Scalp. I think some installations on the surface can be easily damaged with such cruise missiles and Iran can't do anything against it but underground facilities remain unaffected. There are special penetrating bombs which can destroy bunkers and other underground facilities but those bombs need to be released close to target from high altitude and this will be a risky task for IDF pilots.
My first choice would be to offer citizenship into the US to all law-abiding Israelis. Take it or leave it, but the money stops flowing, either way.
My second choice is to allow Israel to take the gloves off and nuke the shit out of Iran. Cut the head off of the snake. These stupid wars need to end. And America needs to stop funding them. I heard someone say that everyone in America could get free college, for the money we pissed away in Ukraine.
Opinion
7Opinion
I think Israel is in a lot of trouble. Iran has the something on the order of 100k missiles spread out all over the country in hidden mountain bunkers, they could destroy Israel anytime they want. This idea they need nukes is silly. They could utterly overwhelm the Iron dome. Contrary to popular opinion I don't think Iran wants a war, Israel certainly does though. Sad though because Iran or Turkey could put a stop to the genocide anytime.
Very low. Israel does not want to punish ordinary citizens. They want to disable the leadership and the ballistic missile and nuclear weapon programs.
They can't. Iran's nuclear facilities are hardened, in densely populated areas and are widely distributed.
They should take them out, because plants need sunshine and rain.
They dont have the capabilities to do this alone. WW3 has already began but this would put the world at risk.
Unless they want ww3 to start.
Probably 90%
i hope so.
🤔 maybe 75%
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